Notable macro data points, news items, and price action pertaining to the restaurant space.






Supply-side uncertainty is said to be the driving force behind the raised net-long positions across eleven agricultural futures and options in the week ended August 23rd, according to Bloomberg.  Speculators increased bullish bets on agricultural commodities to the highest level since early May after adverse weather further eroded yield prospects for corn and soybeans crops in the U.S.




Quick Service restaurant stocks continue to outperform on all durations and the food processors continue to lag as commodity price uncertainty weighs on sentiment.  SAFM’s recently reported 3QFY11 earnings miss did little to convince investors that the sector is out of the woods.


THE HBM: DNKN, SBUX, MCD, DIN, THI, YUM, EAT - subsectors fbr




  • DNKN shares are pricy at current levels, according to Barron’s.  Echoing some of what we have been saying for some time, the article points out that DNKN is trading at a premium to SBUX, MCD, DIN, and THI.
  • YUM is lobbying the federal government, using a little-used provision from the 1970’s allowing states to permit restaurants for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits.  The provision allows the elderly, disabled, or homeless the option of exchanging food stamps at participating restaurants.  Thus far, only a few states have opted into the program.



  • EAT raised its quarterly dividend to 16c per share from 14c.




Howard Penney

Managing Director


Rory Green




Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

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7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

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Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

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GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

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Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

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Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

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Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

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People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

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UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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