“If you must play, decide upon three things at the start: the rules of the game, the stakes, and the quitting time.”
While it’s both sad and pathetic to watch our said “free market” system come to this, the entire asset management world is being dared to bet on either black or red going into Ben Bernanke’s “event” in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday.
If you must play (going to 70% Cash this week, we have decided not to), you should have already decided on 3 things:
1. RULES: seeing that Japan, Europe, and the US effectively change the rules as we go, this is a tough one! If you have inside information on what Bernanke is going to say, enjoy that and some orange jump suit risk out on your life’s tail.
A) bet BLACK on Bernanke and the elixir of another short-term stock market inflation is yours
B) bet RED on no QG3 (Quantitative Guessing III) and there’s a high probability that your P&L doesn’t blow up in 2011
3. QUITTING TIME: don’t bet at all – go to cash and/or tighten up your net exposure like we have (10 LONGS, 10 SHORTS)
I’m not a big fan of blowing up. When I started in the hedge fund business, my first 3 years (2000, 2001, and 2002) were down markets. Not losing money was the name of the game. Since 2008, I haven’t had other people’s money on the pass-line (betting rules are different when the money isn’t yours). I’ve been “all-in” with my own money. Not interested in rolling the bones, Benny – sorry, “bro.”
This is what the ZERO Percent Interest Rate Policy has done to this gargantuan game of Globally Interconnected Risk. Big Government Intervention is designed to debauch your currency and dare you to bet on the stock market. That’s a dumb long-term strategy. Period.
In the past, we’ve also called this 3D-Risk – ZERO percent cost of “risk free” capital does 3 things:
- DARES investors to chase “yield” (stocks over zero percent “risk free” bonds)
- DISGUISES financial risk (think Bank of America’s net interest margins and liquidity gap – both in big trouble)
- DELAYS balance sheet restructuring (uh, got some Greek or Italian banking sausage?)
So… for me at least, the next 3 days will remain The Quitting Time – and I’m totally cool with that. Call me whatever you want to call me in the meantime. It took me a long time and a lot of mistakes to come to grips with this, but doing nothing with my hard earned capital is sometimes the best decision to make.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
On this day in 2006, the planet Pluto was downgraded by the powers that be in Astronomy to “dwarf planet.” While I’m not an astrology expert, I think that math and physics had something to do with the downgrade. Fancy that.
Shockingly, 5 years later, Japan is getting downgraded this morning from land of Keynesian Nod to something less than getting the nod. On the “news” that Japan is an economic disaster, the Nikkei crashed again (down -20.4% since February 2011) for the umpteenth time since Paul Krugman and the Princeton boys told the Japanese to “PRINT LOTS OF MONEY.”
But have no fear, the aliens are here…
On Fareed Zakaria’s GPS a few weeks ago, CNN teased that they were going to “explore the most important topic (the economy) with the most important voices” (Zakaria was interviewing Krugman). And I couldn’t make this up if it tried, but the venerable Keynesian of Nobel’s Social Study Experiment said:
“If we discovered that, you know, space aliens were planning to attack and we needed a massive buildup to counter the space alien threat and really inflation and budget deficits took secondary place to that, this slump would be over in 18 months…”
You know, space aliens, Ben… We need to be thinking cowboys and space aliens down there in Jackson Hole!
God help us. The Quitting Time with failed Keynesian policies is here.
My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil, and the SP500 are now $1, $81.28-89.28, and 1108-1165, respectively. Yesterday was just another Japanese-like rally to lower long-term highs in US Equities. If people are seriously betting on Bernanke BLACK on Friday, I’ll tell you that this Canadian is in Cash and won’t be surprised whatsoever to see those expectations crash.
Best of luck out there today and a special prayer goes out to my brother Ryan and his beautiful family,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK
TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - August 24, 2011
There’s nothing quite like an entire profession is being forced to “bet” on black or red into a man-made event at Jackson Hole. It’s pathetic and sad that a said “free market” has come to this. As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 57 points or -4.68% downside to 1108 and 0.23% upside to 1165.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
Yesterday’s 3.43% rally in the S&P 500 to another long-term (and immediate-term) lower-high didn’t change anything in our multi-duration S&P Sector Risk Management Model. All 9 Sectors closed below both their TRADE and TREND lines for the 15th consecutive day. Managing risk around ranges in US Equities with a bearish bias remains our strategy from today’s closing price. On any follow through strength ahead of Jackson Hole, we want to be shorting Financials (XLF) and Industrials (XLI).
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +2119 (+2475)
- VOLUME: NYSE 1240.16 (+4.13%)
- VIX: 36.27 -14.54% YTD PERFORMANCE: +104.34%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.78 from 2.01 -11.38%
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 31.18
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01%
- 10-Year: 2.15 from 2.10
- YIELD CURVE: 1.88 from 1.87
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7 a.m.: MBA mortgage applications, prior 4.1%
- • 8:30 a.m.: July durable goods orders, est. 2.0%; July durable goods ex-transports, est. (0.5%)
- • 10 a.m.: June house-price index M/m, est. 0.2%; 2Q house price purchase index Q/q, est. (0.4%)
- • 10:30 a.m.: DoE weekly inventories, crude est. build 1.5m bbl
- • 1 p.m.: U.S. to auction $35b 5-year notes
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Bullish sentiment decreases to 40.9% from 46.2% in the latest US Investor's Intelligence poll
- Japan’s sovereign credit rating cut one step to Aa3, banks’ ratings lowered by Moody’s; Japanese govt to release $100b to fund loans by Japan Bank for International Cooperation, in an effort to cope with yen’s appreciation, Finance Minister says
- German business confidence index drops to lowest level in more than a year
- Biden says he “didn’t come to explain a damn thing” to China
- German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejects demands that Greece provide collateral for emergency loans as splits emerged in her Cabinet, reflecting euro-area divisions on issue
- COMMODITIES: we sold our Silver on 8/19 so now we can wait/watch for support = $40.18
- COPPER – still sees no QG3 and neither does oil. If Bernanke was going to save everyone’s P&L on Friday, OIL?COPPER would be recapturing at least their long term TAIL lines of support; neither are in the area code of that. Both remain BEARISH/BROKEN.
MOST POPULAR COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:
- Merkel Rejects Seeking Collateral in Bailouts as Splits Emerge
- BHP Second-Half Profit Climbs to Record on Prices, Output
- Central Banks Seen Retaining Gold as Debt Crisis Escalates
- Gold Rallies After Dropping From Record as Investors Seek Haven
- Oil Slides From Four-Day High in New York After Japan Downgrade
- Hurricane Irene Bearing Down on Bahamas on Way to North Carolina
- Codelco Bets China Growth Will Justify $20 Billion Investment
- Irene Likely to Be a ‘Major’ Hurricane Later Today, NHC Says
- Copper May Drop on Concern Global Growth to Slow, Damping Deman
- Drought-Baked Fields Curb 2012 U.S. Wheat Outlook as Prices Gain
- Usiminas Port Bid Seen Quadrupling Its Iron Ore: Freight Markets
- Bunge Says Syngenta Suit May Jeopardize Chinese Corn Exports
- Glencore Cash Offer Values Minara Resources at A$1.02 Billion
- Sino-Forest Downgraded by S&P on Delay to Probe, Profit Decline
- EUROPE: what a mess; no bounce after the US tries its best to hold a 1 day move; Denmark and Poland down 1% this morn as the bear broadens
- EuroZone Jun Industrial New Orders +11.1% y/y vs consensus +12.1%, prior revised +13.8% from +15.5%; EuroZone Jun Industrial New Orders (0.7%) m/m vs consensus +0.5%, prior +3.6%
- JAPAN – finally moves into crash territory overnight on the “news” that Paul Krugman/Bernank advice in 1997 to “print lots of money” has another side to the “bet”; Japanese stocks down -20.4% since FEB 2011.
- KOSPI – after a 1-day relief rally like the US had, Korea continues to crash (down -1.2% overnight and down -21.3% since May 2nd which is the same day German DAX peaked and started crashing from – Korea and Germany are huge lead indicators on global industrial growth slowing).
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Aside from the luck factor, the Q2 upside looks sustainable. The Street has some major revisions to do.
We'll get to the quarter in a minute but the incremental story is the sustainability of revenues and higher margins. We are now estimating $211 million in Q3 EBITDA, up from $188 million, and much higher than the Street at $160 million. Ok so back to Q2.
MPEL reported a blockbuster quarter, exceeding our expectations which were well ahead of consensus. Sure, there was some hold benefit, but most people already knew that Altira held lucky in the quarter. Factoring out the $7MM mix benefit at CoD, MPEL still delivered an impressive quarter where costs efficiencies leveraged volume growth to deliver impressive results.
- Net revenue of $960MM exceeded our estimate by 1% due to lower promotional allowances
- Adjusted EBITDA of $216MM exceeded our estimate by $36MM due to flow through of lower promotional allowances, lower fixed expenses and beneficial RC mix at CoD
- CoD net revenues of $608MM were $7MM higher than we estimated while EBITDA was $24MM better.
- Flow through was 61% vs our estimate of 41%
- Net casino revenue was $4MM better, while net non-gaming revenue was $3MM better than we estimated
- Net VIP win was $4MM higher than we estimated
- Direct VIP play was 13.2% of RC volume
- RC volumes were 1% lower than we estimated; however, we think hold was 2.84% - 4bps better than we estimated
- Due to beneficial mix of RC and RevShare, we estimate that the commission rate was 1.22% vs our estimate of 1.26%
- High hold on the RC piece but low hold on the RevShare makes for a lower than theoretical commission payout on 2.84% hold
- Mass table win and slot win were in-line with our estimates
- Total variable expenses were $370MM (taxes, gaming premium, junket commissions and estimated doubtful accounts)
- We estimate that the cost of non-gaming revenue was $25MM
- Implied fixed costs decreased to $62MM - $8MM below our estimate
- Altira net revenue of $311.5MM was $5MM below our estimate while EBITDA was $8.5MM better than we estimated
- Net casino revenue was $7MM lower, while net non-gaming revenue was $2MM better than we estimated
- Net VIP win was $8MM higher than we estimated
- RC volumes were 2% higher than we estimated due to some direct play volume which we estimate was 3% of total RC. This could be a reflection of the premium mass business mentioned on the call.
- Hold was in-line with our estimate
- Mass table win was $6MM lower than we estimated due to slightly lower drop and much lower hold. We estimated 19% hold – 3% higher than actual. Typically, higher drop properties have better hold rates.
- Total variable expenses were $212MM (taxes, gaming premium, junket commissions and estimated doubtful accounts)
- We estimate that the cost of non-gaming revenue was $3MM
- Implied fixed costs decreased to $23MM - $7MM below our estimate
- 3Q11: net revenue of $992MM and adjusted EBITDA of $211MM; this is 9% and 32% above the Street, respectively.
- 2011: net revenue of $3,768MM and adjusted EBITDA of $757MM, 7% and 22% above the Street, respectively.
Today’s data around the horn.
Positions in Europe: Short EUR-USD (FXE); Short Italy (EWI); Short UK (EWU)
The numbers speak for themselves, but today’s initial August Manufacturing and Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, Germany, and France, show not only a slide versus July, but French and Eurozone Manufacturing fell below the 50 mark, indicating contraction, and Services held just above the mark for the Eurozone and Germany. This move however isn’t new—we indicated a downward inflection in the high frequency data from Germany beginning in March—and we expect more downside on the intermediate term as Europe fumbles with facilities/solutions to address sovereign debt contagion.
The current of declining sentiment was confirmed by today’s ZEW survey results. Germany’s Current Situation fell a monster 37 points to 53.5 AUG vs 90.6 JUL and the 6-month forward looking Economic Sentiment gauge dropped to -37.6 AUG vs -15.1 JUL, the lowest level since December 2008 and the biggest drop since July 2006. Eurozone Economic Sentiment also plunged, to -40 AUG vs -7 JUL.
Over recent months we’ve discussed how strong Swiss exports figures defied the strength in the CHF versus the EUR and USD. Swiss Export and Import data out today for the month of July showed a negative inflection of -3.0% month-over-month versus +3.8% in May. We’d expect a tail off in the months ahead from the currency impact (though perhaps a pop in August on easy comps) as the SNB struggles to make much of a dent in the value of the CHF versus major currencies since it indicated it would intervene on 8/10. Imports rose 0.1% in July M/M versus 1.0% in June, pushing the Trade Balance to 2.83B CHF in July.
(8/24) France will unveil austerity measures that will include budget cuts and higher taxes on the highest income earners. HE: Could the terms arrest the threats on France’s AAA credit rating? Both government bond yields and sovereign CDS have moved higher in recent weeks.
(8/26) Spain is expected to unveil further austerity measures estimated to produce savings of 5B EUR. HE: The heat is on Spanish lending institutions and economic fundamentals remain bleak. More uncertainty may surround political transition as PM Jose Zapatero has called for early elections on November 20th, four months early, and made clear that he will not seek a third term as Socialist Party head. So long as the ECB’s SMP is buying Spanish bonds, yields should come in. This however, will not last in perpetuity. Last week the ECB bought €14.3B vs €22B two weeks ago—two huge sums considering that before two weeks ago the SMP had only purchased €74B since May 2010.
(9/7) Germany’s constitutional court will hear cases against the constitutionality of the country’s previous bailout packages to Greece, Ireland, and Portugal. HE: While the German government insists that it has not broken any laws, and the case should be overturned, we’ll be watching for any tangential implications for the EFSF or European Stability Mechanism (beg. in 2013).
For more on our risk management outlook on Europe, see yesterday’s post titled “European Risk Monitor: Summer’s Uncertainty”.
As Wall St. gets back to cheering on negative economic data in hopes of more short-term performance boosting stimulus out of the Fed’s annual retreat to Jackson Hole this Friday, we thought we’d take the opportunity to update you with our latest quantitative levels and thoughts as it relates to some key items on the reporting docket for the rest of the week.
Tomorrow (8/24): The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) will release an updated version of their Budget and Economic Outlook at 9:30am EST. The key metrics to watch for are deltas in their GDP estimates. Per the previous outlook, the CBO was forecasting YoY growth in real GDP of +2.7% in 2011, +3.1% in 2012, +3.4% from 2013-16, and +2.4% from 2017-21.
We’ve been on record several times stating that their assumptions are rather pollyannaish in the context of the long-term trend in U.S. economic growth (+1.6% over the last 10yrs; +2.8% over the last 30yrs) – bubbles in internet technology and U.S. housing/household consumption included!
The key takeaway here as it relates to financial markets are potential markups to our long-term debt/GDP and deficit/GDP statistics, as growth (the denominator) falls, causing a further reductions in tax receipts that boosts cumulative deficits and debt (the numerators). According to the CBO’s previous outlook:
“All told, if growth of real GDP each year was 0.1 percentage point lower than is assumed in CBO’s baseline, annual deficits would be larger by amounts that would climb to $68 billion in 2021. The cumulative deficit for 2011 through 2021 would rise by $310 billion.”
Look for incrementally hawkish rhetoric out of the political right the event the CBO walks down their growth assumptions closer to the economic reality of an economy still driven by a fear-mongered (see: Bernanke’s pledge to hold rates at ZERO through mid-2013) and deleveraging consumer. Such Policy Pong will continue to be the main driver of the omnipotent EUR/USD exchange rate.
Friday (8/26): The second reading/first revision of 2Q11 U.S. real GDP is due out Friday morning. Until the BEA demonstrates some measure of stability in their analytics, we continue to flag potential downside to consensus expectations of +1.1% QoQ SAAR. It’s worth repeating that GDP in 1Q11 was revised to the downside by -81%! Moreover, it’s not just 1Q11; the agency has a long history of consistently printing elevated advance GDP estimates that ultimately wind up being revised downward at a later date when investors are paying less attention to them. Per an April 2011 Economist article:
“… during the ten years to 2008, America’s quarterly GDP growth rate was, on average, revised down between the first and final published estimates by an annualised 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, GDP figures in the euro area were revised up by an average of 0.3 points.”
The S&P 500 Index remains bearish from a TRADE, TREND, and TAIL perspective. Our refreshed immediate-term TRADE range is 1,097-1,161.
Buy/cover low; sell/short high.
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