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DNKN - VALUATION IS NOT A CATALYST BUT A STARTING POINT

Paying a higher multiple for DNKN over SBUX, MCD and YUM does not make sense to us.  In just about a week’s time, we will be getting a close look at what the “paid supporters” think of the stock at these levels.  My guess is that we will see the sell-side consensus build around the “I like the long term prospects, but valuation is expensive” theme.     

 

We published our Black Book at the time of the IPO outlining our longer term view of the fundamentals and our view that the coffee space was in a “bubble.”  Valuations have since corrected, with the exception of DNKN.  As we have written, DNKN is a domestic regional brand with a plan to grow domestically into new markets within the U.S.  We find the practicalities of that plan less-than-certain and would absolutely not support a higher valuation for DNKN versus SBUX MCD and YUM which have more convincing growth prospects via international markets. 

 

Additionally, given the fact that broader economic growth in the U.S. is and will likely continue to be below that of international markets where Starbucks, McDonald’s and YUM are focusing their growth, we are only further convinced that the DNKN premium is unsustainable. 

 

I can appreciate that there is a K-CUP story developing at DNKN, but that is reflected in the current valuation.  What is not discounted is the potential for SSS to be less that blockbuster in the upcoming quarter if the K-Cups sell thru are less than stellar.  Not to mention the potential for K-Cup supply constraints coming from GMCR.     

 

DNKN - VALUATION IS NOT A CATALYST BUT A STARTING POINT - DNKNVAL


European Risk Monitor: Summer’s Uncertainty

Positions in Europe: Short EUR-USD (FXE); Short UK (EWU); Short Italy (EWI)


We’ve titled this week’s European Risk Monitor “Summer’s Uncertainty” for it’s the continued lack of resolve on a credible plan to mitigate sovereign debt contagion that perpetuates uncertainty on the region’s economic outlook—and here the core is just as exposed as the periphery.  This uncertainty is further enhanced by the lack of near term catalysts: ratification on the terms of the EFSF—which doesn’t include expansion of the €750 Billion facility—won’t come until late September/early October. Never mind that we think this facility needs to be enlarged—we’d expect pushback on the terms from Finland, Netherlands, Austria, and Slovakia, and therefore continued volatility across European capital markets, with a bias to the downside.

 

Notable callouts over the week include: Q2 GDP reports; Switzerland’s handcuffed currency intervention; proposals of a French austerity package; tempered remarks from Merkel on Eurobonds, and the slide in equity markets:

 

A.)   EU-27 GDP fell to +0.2% in Q2 vs +0.8% in Q1 quarter-over-quarter, or +1.7% vs +2.5% year-over-year. Importantly, German GDP, the country thought to be “carrying” the region, fell considerably in Q2 as compared to Q1 (+0.1% vs 1.3% Q/Q; or +2.8% vs 4.6% Y/Y). The report reflects our call in late Q1/early Q2 of the slowing high frequency data in Germany.

 

B.)    While the initial announcement by the Swiss National Bank to curb the strength of the CHF on 8/10 sent it tumbling versus major currencies, uncertainty remains to the extent the SNB can make a dent in the CHF’s +15.8% year-to-date gain versus the USD, or +9.2% vs the EUR, especially as Europe’s sovereign debt contagion pushes onward.   Week-over-week the CHF-USD fell -1.2% and the CHF-EUR weakened -2.4%.

 

C.)    France will unveil austerity measures this Wednesday, which will include budget cuts and higher taxes on the highest income earners. Critically, the terms of the package are essential to monitor for they could limit threats to a downgrade in the country’s AAA credit rating, an important point we’ve highlighted in our research, in particular as it relates to the EFSF.

 

D.)   Finally, over the weekend German Chancellor Angela Merkel reaffirmed her resistance to the issuance of Eurobonds, saying that “they lead us into a debt union, not a stability union and each country has to take its own steps to reduce its debt.” Yet she left a slight window open in saying “euro bonds at this time would further undermine economic stability and so they are not the answer right now.”

 

E.)   The DAX and CAC led European equity indices to the downside week-over-week at -8.6% and -6.1%, respectively; the equity markets of the PIIGS followed, down -4 to -5%, and we saw massive declines across European banks. As we look further out, expect no country to be immune from contagion risk. 

 

Continuing on the point of Merkel’s stance on Eurobonds, it’s noteworthy that recent polls suggest 75% of Germans are against issuing Eurobonds. The real position at hand is the lack of fiscal accountability for the Eurozone member states and German resistance to a go-at-it-alone approach in which its borrowing cost move higher to subsidize its neighbors, in particular those without fiscal discipline. Germany’s finance ministry has calculated that the burden on the federal budget by issuing Eurobonds would be an extra €2.5 Billion in the first year, €5 Billion in the second year, and €20-25 Billion over the next 10 years. One issue to consider is that issuance of Eurobonds does NOT comply with the terms of the Lisbon Treaty. While an amendment could be passed, keep in mind that such an amending clause could take considerable time (years).

 

 

Risk Monitors


A look at 10YR government bond yields shows that Italy and Spain are trading just below 5%, or around 100 bps below our critical breakout line of 6%. We think this level is supported by the re-activation of the ECB's SMP bond buying program, however we do not see the SMP involvement as a long term solution to arrest yields as the ECB's mandate is solely to maintain price stability through monetary policy and not fiscal policy. Hence the importance on the EFSF decision. 

 

European Risk Monitor: Summer’s Uncertainty - ME 1

 

Our European Financials CDS Monitor shows that Bank swaps in Europe were mostly wider last week: 28 of the 38 swaps were wider and 10 tightened.  We expect downside in European banks so long as sovereign threats remain in the forefront. The lack of resolve on a credible plan to limit contagion, the ability to punish fiscal excesses, and allow banks to fail, are all points that need to collectively be addressed. We don’t think that the EFSF, even if it is resolved in its current state in late September/early October, is a panacea for the region’s ills.

 

European Risk Monitor: Summer’s Uncertainty - ME 2

 

We shorted Italy via the eft EWI today in the Virtual Portfolio. We remain short the UK and its sticky stagflation via the etf EWU. We are also short the EUR-USD via FXE. Our immediate term TRADE levels are $1.41 to $1.45.

 

Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst


MACAU ON PACE FOR 44-50% YOY GROWTH IN AUGUST

August revenue target range of HK$22-23BN


 

Macau slowed in the past week which, from our sources, appears to be hold related.  In fact, Mass traffic looked very strong over the weekend.  Daily table revenue per day averaged HK$678 million versus HK$706 million for the month to date.  We have narrowed our projection range to HK$22-23 billion for full month gross gaming revenues (including slots) from our previous range of HK$22.0-23.5 billion.  Our new range represents YoY growth of 44-50%.

 

For market share, Wynn was the big loser as MTD market share fell from 2 full percentage points in only one week which is undoubtedly a result of bad luck.  In fact, the low Wynn hold probably explains the entire market’s slowdown this week.  SJM and MPEL picked up the most share in the past week.  At 14.7%, MPEL is now back above its post Galaxy Macau average share after holding poorly in the first week of August.  Q3 consensus EBITDA estimates for MPEL look about 20% too low based on the quarter to date numbers so far.  LVS’s market share remains disappointing this month and actually fell 20bps in the past week alone.

 

MACAU ON PACE FOR 44-50% YOY GROWTH IN AUGUST - macau


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