August revenue target range of HK$22-23BN

Macau slowed in the past week which, from our sources, appears to be hold related.  In fact, Mass traffic looked very strong over the weekend.  Daily table revenue per day averaged HK$678 million versus HK$706 million for the month to date.  We have narrowed our projection range to HK$22-23 billion for full month gross gaming revenues (including slots) from our previous range of HK$22.0-23.5 billion.  Our new range represents YoY growth of 44-50%.

For market share, Wynn was the big loser as MTD market share fell from 2 full percentage points in only one week which is undoubtedly a result of bad luck.  In fact, the low Wynn hold probably explains the entire market’s slowdown this week.  SJM and MPEL picked up the most share in the past week.  At 14.7%, MPEL is now back above its post Galaxy Macau average share after holding poorly in the first week of August.  Q3 consensus EBITDA estimates for MPEL look about 20% too low based on the quarter to date numbers so far.  LVS’s market share remains disappointing this month and actually fell 20bps in the past week alone.