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SPREADING YUAN AND SELLING INFLATION

 

Conclusion: Recent changes to China’s convoluted system of capital controls are structurally bullish for the Chiense yuan and may serve to provide some reprieve for washed-out Chinese financials. Moreover, Thailand’s decision to implement a rice price-fixing scheme later in the year is yet another inflationary headwind for the region.

 

Positions in Asia: Long Chinese equities (CAF); Short Japanese equities (EWJ).

 

China’s Ever-Relaxing Capital Controls

Overnight, Chinese officials announced three measures to spur cross-border yuan investment. Though not wholly original or earth-shattering, the cumulative impact of each additional measure inches the Chinese yuan one step closer to becoming a dominant currency in the international FX market. The measures include: a Hong Kong equity ETF vehicle for mainland investors, a $3.1B extension of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor Program (QFII), and a general relaxation of controls in the dim-sum bond market.

 

The ETF vehicle is designed to give mainland investors access to stocks listed in Hong Kong. The scheme resembles to the 2007 “through train” plan, which would’ve allowed investors direct access to Hong Kong equities (scrapped for a less aggressive plan in Jan ’10). Back then, the announcement combined with a global love interest with all things “Chinerr” help push the Hang Seng Index to a record high. We don’t see a similar effect occurring this time around, as the gap in valuation between the traditionally cheaper Hang Seng stocks and Shanghai Composite stocks is rather minimal today (1.1x) vs. a 2007 peak of (17.9x), limiting the cross-border appeal based on the potential for arbitrage.

 

SPREADING YUAN AND SELLING INFLATION  - d dale chart1

 

 

The QFII extension grants foreign institutional investors a quota of up to 20B yuan ($3.1B) to make initial investments in mainland Chinese securities. The program was initially introduced in 2002 as a way to grant foreign institutional investors greater access to Chinese domestic stock markets in a bid to secure funds amid a major recapitalization of the Chinese banking system. Should Chinese banks ultimately require recapitalization within the backdrop of property market worries and local government financing vehicle debt, this makes the process a bit more liquid in our opinion. We expect demand for Chinese bank assets to grow from current trough levels as the liabilities associated with BAC, U.S. Housing Headwinds, and Europe’s Sovereign Debt Dichotomy come home to roost.

 

Lastly, China’s decision to expand the scope of mainland corporations’ offshore yuan-denominated debt (“dim-sum bonds”) issuance is another method by which foreign investors can gain incremental access to China’s closed capital structure. Moreover, we see it as another avenue by which Chinese banks could tap previously limited pools of capital. For instance, the 554B yuan ($85.3B) in Hong Kong based yuan deposits has been limited to collecting negative real deposit rates (nominal short-term rates are roughly 25bps on average) due to limits on cross-border yuan transactions. Now, foreign investors can take increasing advantage of dim-sum bond issuance, like today’s Ministry of Finance 20B yuan issue – the third-largest offering on record. As more and more companies issue debt in this market, we expect cross-border yield differentials to converge from distorted spreads like the current 157bps gap on 10yr Chinese sovereign debt.

 

Net-net, we continue to see structural upward pressure on the Chinese yuan as China continues to open up its capital markets. While our belief that the Chinese yuan will eventually take major share of global FX reserves has many years to run its course, we do like such incremental efforts, as they remind us that China is indeed committed to strengthening its currency over the long term. Though Chuck Schumer (D-NY) may not be around long enough to see this play out, we can assure you that it’s better for the global economy he doesn’t have his way too quickly. The +14% YoY rate of U.S. import price growth is a painful reminder that China accounts for 10.1% of global exports – i.e. the faster the yuan appreciates vs. the USD, the more U.S. consumers and corporations have to take The Inflation in the margin over the short-to-intermediate term.

 

SPREADING YUAN AND SELLING INFLATION  - dd chart 2

 

 

All told, we strongly maintain our bullish bias for countries that maintain a strong “handshake” via policies that support currency strength, as opposed to the debt, deficit, and devaluation strategies currently being implemented from Washington D.C. to Brussels.

 

Thailand’s Going to Strong-Arm the Global Rice Market – Inflationary for the Region

Today, Thailand’s newly elected prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra confirmed that her government will fulfill a campaign promise to purchase (and hoard) unmilled rice at 15,000 ($502) baht per ton in the November harvest – an increase of +51.5% from the current market rate of 9,900 baht per ton.

 

The scheme is designed explicitly to sustainably push up global rice prices by reducing supply on the global rice market (per the USDA, Thailand is the world’s number one rice supplier at roughly 32.2% of total exports).  This confirmed by recent comments out of Pheu Thai politician Pichai Naripthaphan, former deputy finance minister for Yingluck’s older brother, Thaksin Shinawatra – the former prime minister of Thailand: “It makes no sense that every agricultural product in the world has gone up except for rice… This is our key policy to win votes, not only this time but in every election.” The Pheu Thai party is indeed serious about buying votes from the agricultural base and there are many for sale in Thailand, with a total of 23.5 million farmers or 35% of the population, per Thailand’s Office of Agricultural Economics.

 

Asia, which accounts for roughly 87% of global rice consumption, is particularly at risk from a food inflation perspective. Initially, countries may elect to cancel Thai orders and curb exports of their own production, but seeing how rice is the staple of Asian diets, we don’t see much of a way around this over the long term – rice prices are going up as global supply is constrained as a result of the Thai government’s policy to first stockpile the grain and then negotiate export quantities on a country-by-country basis. It’s worth noting that food has an average weighting of over 30% of inflation indexes throughout Asia, with rice obviously being a large component of that (per Rabobank Groep NV).

 

Back in 2008, a similar scheme was introduced by Thaksin, which ultimately saw the purchase of 5.4 million tons of the grain by the Thai government from over 700,000 domestic farmers, leading to record domestic stockpiles (6.1 million tons) and record prices in Thailand's domestic and export markets (17,000 baht and $1,038 per ton, respectively). According to Thailand’s Rice Exporters Association, current Thai export prices are roughly $582 per ton (up +22% YoY), so an increase to levels reached under the previous scheme would imply a near doubling of export prices from today’s levels.

 

Such an occurrence would obviously have an inflationary impact across the region due to Thailand’s sheer weight in the global rice market. This is an incremental risk to Asian inflation readings as we look forward into 2012 and beyond, and may ultimately limit the amount of monetary easing Asian central banks can pursue in the event the current global economic slowdown takes a turn for the worse. Asian central banks have hiked rates 44 times since March of 2010 and Thai’s rice price-fixing scheme is likely to make it difficult, on the margin, for them to unwind these tightening measures when they perhaps need to.

 

Darius Dale

Analyst

 

SPREADING YUAN AND SELLING INFLATION  - dd chart3


THE HBM: MCD, SBUX, PNRA, DPZ, SONC, AFCE, TXRH, BJRI

Notable macro data points, news items, and price action pertaining to the restaurant space.

 

THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MENU

 

MACRO

 

Consumer

 

Initial jobless claims came in at 408k for the week ended August 13th, versus expectations of 400k and the week prior’s revised number of 399k.

 

THE HBM: MCD, SBUX, PNRA, DPZ, SONC, AFCE, TXRH, BJRI - initial jobless claims

 

 

Commodities

 

The costliest drought in Texas history probably forced ranchers to sell the most cattle to feedlots since December, according to Bloomberg, perhaps causing a surge in U.S. meat supply that may reduce costs for the food processors.

 

Subsectors

 

THE HBM: MCD, SBUX, PNRA, DPZ, SONC, AFCE, TXRH, BJRI - subsectors fbr

 

 

QUICK SERVICE

  • MCD raised to Outperform versus Perform at Oppenheimer
  • SBUX cut to Perform versus Outperform at Oppenheimer
  • PNRA raised to Outperform versus Perform at Oppenheimer
  • DPZ raised to Outperform versus Perform at Oppenheimer
  • SONC cut to Perform versus Outperform at Oppenheimer
  • AFCE reported 2Q earnings post-close yesterday.  EPS came in at $0.23 versus $0.23 expectations.  Global and domestic same-store sales increased 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively.  On the conference call, management said that the consumer environment is “choppy”.

 

CASUAL DINING

  • TXRH Chairman Taylor steps into Chief Executive Role
  • TXRH cut to Perform versus Outperform at Oppenheimer
  • BJRI raised to Outperform versus Perform at Oppenheimer

 

THE HBM: MCD, SBUX, PNRA, DPZ, SONC, AFCE, TXRH, BJRI - stocks 818

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst


Retail: The Smoke Is Clearing

 

Look past the good numbers that some companies are printing. Financial metrics are turning the wrong way. Shorts: JCP, HBI, GIL, M, COH. Longs: WMT, TGT, NKE, LIZ.

 

 

With the end in sight for Retail earnings season, let’s step back and take a look at its financial health. Many will argue that numbers were good overall, and they’re right. Companies like Wal-Mart and Target (names we like) definitely showed up to play the game. But as we’ve been saying, we don’t like the deviation between the different companies in the space (HD/LOW, KSS/JCP, JWN/SKS, to name a few). In looking back through history, such volatility has always preceded a big move up or down in the space. I bet down.

 

Some notables…

1)       Take a look at this consolidated SIGMA chart for the apparel/footwear supply chain. Any way you cut it, this is simply bad. The sales/inventory spread has been drifting down for five quarters now, and is sitting today at -25%. Yes, I realize that this is needed for the industry to catch up on 3+ years of unsustainably low inventory levels. But the fact remains that Gross Margins are near peak for the space. Also, we’re facing a dynamic where the better companies ordered 10% fewer units and realized close to 10% higher prices. Mark my words, given the fragmentation of this business, many companies will have the mindset that says “Hey, if I sold X units at a 10% higher price, I bet that next season I can sell X+5% at the same price or higher.” Add on the fact that cotton prices are off so dramatically over the past few months, and this is luring the industry into a false sense of security. That’s bad.

Retail: The Smoke Is Clearing - Industry SIGMA chart1

 

2)      Let’s look at the simple sales trajectory for the space. Q1 through Q3 of last year grew steadily between 7-8%, but then in the three quarters since, we saw a definite step-up. While it might only be by 200bp on a yy basis, the more appropriate way to look at this is on a 2-year run rate. That’s where it gets scary. We had sub 1% growth in 1Q and 2Q of last year, then we moved to 3%, and for the last three quarters (ending 2Q12) we’re had a range of 7-9%. In other words, top line compares start to get much tougher 1 quarter out. That’s not horrible if inventories are tight and margin compares are easy. But it simply is not the case.

Retail: The Smoke Is Clearing - Industry PODS 2

 

3)      When we delineate the companies we track by SIGMA quadrant and track their respective movement from 1Q, there was a disproportionate shift of companies out of the sweet spot (sales/inv spread positive and margins up) to the Danger Zone (sales/inv spread and margins both down). That’s not horrible if the market has already recognized it. But the market hasn’t. In addition, unlike quadrants 2 and 4 of our grid – which are transitory and usually house a company for 2 quarters or less – a company can be in quadrant 3 for a multiple of that. Note: companies like Sears, K-Mart and Foot Locker lived there for the better part of a decade.

Retail: The Smoke Is Clearing - industry sigma Q2 2010

 

Retail: The Smoke Is Clearing - SIGMA TABLE  3  Q2 2011

 

Brian P. McGough
Managing Director


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INITIAL CLAIMS BACK UP ABOVE 400K WITH MARGIN PRESSURE UNRELENTING

Initial claims climbed 13k from the prior week (9k after the revision to the prior week's print), bringing the headline number back to 408k.  Last week, we noted a divergence in the usually-tight correlation between the S&P and initial claims, suggesting that claims would move higher, the S&P would snap back, or some combination.  We continue to expect claims to back up further to close this gap. If all the mean reversion comes on the claims side claims will rise to ~475k. This would be reflect/cause a significant slowdown in US economic growth expectations consistent with our Macro team's call.  

 

Challenger Announced Job Cuts rose 60% YoY in July, a leading indicator for initial claims.  While still well below 2008-2009 levels, this is a substantial acceleration from recent months.  

 

INITIAL CLAIMS BACK UP ABOVE 400K WITH MARGIN PRESSURE UNRELENTING - rolling

INITIAL CLAIMS BACK UP ABOVE 400K WITH MARGIN PRESSURE UNRELENTING - raw

 

INITIAL CLAIMS BACK UP ABOVE 400K WITH MARGIN PRESSURE UNRELENTING - nsa

 

INITIAL CLAIMS BACK UP ABOVE 400K WITH MARGIN PRESSURE UNRELENTING - announced job cuts

 

INITIAL CLAIMS BACK UP ABOVE 400K WITH MARGIN PRESSURE UNRELENTING - job cuts yoy

 

INITIAL CLAIMS BACK UP ABOVE 400K WITH MARGIN PRESSURE UNRELENTING - S P

 

INITIAL CLAIMS BACK UP ABOVE 400K WITH MARGIN PRESSURE UNRELENTING - XLF

 

Margins under Pressure 

We track the 2-10 spread as a proxy for bank margins.  With the long end of the curve continuing to come down even as the short end is fixed close to zero, margins are under assault.  The 2-10 spread of 197 bps compares to an average for the 3Q of 240 bps and an average for 2Q of 264 bps.  

 

INITIAL CLAIMS BACK UP ABOVE 400K WITH MARGIN PRESSURE UNRELENTING - spreads

 

INITIAL CLAIMS BACK UP ABOVE 400K WITH MARGIN PRESSURE UNRELENTING - spreads QoQ

 

The chart below shows performance by subsector. With the market coming up for air in the last week, Title Insurers and Payment Processors have both broken back above positive YTD territory.  

 

INITIAL CLAIMS BACK UP ABOVE 400K WITH MARGIN PRESSURE UNRELENTING - perf

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur

 


THE M3: JULY CHINESE HOME PRICES; 2Q EMPLOYMENT SURVEY

The Macau Metro Monitor, August 18, 2011

 

 

CHINA PROPERTY SLOWDOWN STINGS AGENTS WSJ

Prices of newly built homes in 39 of 70 large and medium-sized Chinese cities covered in a government survey rose MoM in July, down from 44 cities in June.  Prices in Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other large cities were flat MoM in July.

 

EMPLOYMENT SURVEY FOR 2ND QUARTER 2011 DSEC

Total labor force was 338,000 in 2Q 2011, comprising of 329,000 employed and 9,000 unemployed.  24.6% of the employed were engaging in Recreational, Cultural, Gaming & Other Services.  Median monthly employment earnings of both the employed (MOP9,600) and the local residents (MOP10,000) held stable relative to 1Q 2011.

 

 

 


FL: Trends Into The Print

Channel data supports our above-consensus view on FL. We like NKE better at this point, and Nike’s numbers continue to crush the competition. Adidas and Reebok are holding their own. The smaller guys are flat-out losing.

 

Let’s take a glimpse into channel footwear data in advance of FL’s print.  When all is said and done, we are at $0.17 for FL on a comp assumption of +9.5% for the quarter headed into Thursday’s print, which is ahead of the Street at $0.12 and 8.1%, respectively. Is FL one of our favorite names? Not anymore. But we still believe that those who think that the recent strength is over will miss much of this turnaround story. A name like this that has been (justifiably) out of favor for the better part of 20 years, will show more than just a few quarters of upside as the management team makes up for the sins of old.

 

 

Here are some additional highlights:

 

  • The 1.8% increase in Athletic Specialty sales round out the Fiscal quarter for FL with consolidated Athletic specialty sales up 7.2% for the 3 month period.
  • Although all three channels saw sequential deceleration, Athletic specialty/SG outperformed the Department & National Chain store channel and Shoe Chain channel with sales growing 1.8% vs. (14.8%) and (3.4%) respectively. The gap between athletic specialty and the department stores sales growth actually grew from 15.5 points to 16.6 points in July while the gap between athletic specialty and shoe chain shrunk from an ~11 point difference down to a ~5% spread.
  • While industry ASP growth was essentially flat, ASPs were down 6.4% in the Department store channel and down slightly in the shoe chain channel suggesting increased promotional activity while athletic specialty is closer to full price sell through. While still positive, we’re not particularly thrilled with the trendline ASP for the industry. Let’s keep an eye on that one.
  • Nike continues to post outstanding market share growth. But in fairness, this represents Retail sales – and Nike NEEDS outstanding share gains to fuel its recent futures growth.
  • Puma, New Balance & Skechers saw another month of sales declining year over year; down 28.4%, 11.4% & 49.8% respectively conceding more share to Nike, Brand Jordan, Adidas & Reebok.
  • Reebok continued its growth in sales, ASP & marketshare for the third month in a row with Sales up 49.8% on 8.4% ASP growth to the tune of 170 bps in market share.
  • UnderArmour is still not showing up for practice.

 

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FL: Trends Into The Print - chart2

 

FL: Trends Into The Print - chart3

 

FL: Trends Into The Print - chart4

 

FL: Trends Into The Print - chart5

 

FL: Trends Into The Print - chart6

 

FL: Trends Into The Print - chart7

 

FL: Trends Into The Print - chart8

 

FL: Trends Into The Print - chart9

 

FL: Trends Into The Print - chart10

 

FL: Trends Into The Print - chart11

 

FL: Trends Into The Print - chart12

 


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