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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - August 16, 2011

If you didn’t know it now you do - GLOBAL GROWTH IS SLOWING.  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 159 points or -8.84% downside to 1098 and 4.36% upside to 1257.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 816

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 2548 (+1698)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1105.36 (-12.00%)
  • VIX:  31.87 -12.35% YTD PERFORMANCE: +79.55%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.10 from 1.79 (+17.52%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 27.14
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.02%
  • 10-Year: 2.29 from 2.24    
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.10 from 2.04

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30 a.m.: Import Price Index, est. (-0.1%), prior (-0.5%)
  • 8:30 a.m.: Housing starts, est. down 4.6% to 600k, prior 629k
  • 8:30 a.m.: Building Permits, est. down 1.9% to 605k, prior 617k
  • 9:15 a.m.: Industrial Production, est. 0.50%, prior 0.20%
  • 9:15 a.m.: Capacity Utilization, est. 76.9%, prior 76.7%
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell 4-wk bills
  • 4:30 p.m.: API Inventories

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • WSJ is unconvinced of wisdom of Google's purchase of Motorola Mobility
  • Carlyle Group said to be in exclusive talks to buy Pharmaceutical Product Development
  • Nokia rises for second day after Google/MMI deal amid buyout speculation and as analysts say deal may benefit Windows Phone OS; J.P. Morgan values Nokia’s patent portfolio at EU5.4b
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel meets with French President Nicolas Sarkozy; press briefing at 12:30 p.m. NY time
  • IMF’s Lagarde, writing in the FT, urges policymakers to include measures to support economic growth in the short term as they implement fiscal tightening plans under market pressure

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

  • COPPER – the Doctor gets Singapore + Germany = bad; Copper leading to the downside this week is a very bearish signal for global growth; Copper’s TAIL line of support broke last week (4.10/lb) – no support to 3.81/lb

                               

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

MOST POPULAR COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • China Set to Achieve ‘Soft Landing,’ Conference Board Says
  • Sino-Forest Says Investigators Won’t Report Until Year End
  • Bananas in Cooled Ingersoll Trucks Help India Cut Food Waste
  • Gold Gains a Second Day in London on Concerns Growth Is Slowing
  • Soros, Mindich Cut SPDR Gold Share Holdings in 2nd Quarter
  • Oil Supplies Decline to Five-Month Low in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Oil Falls on Speculation Slowing Economy Will Curb Fuel Demand
  • Sugar Climbing 6% as Brazil Crop Drops Amid Importer Demand
  • Copper Drops on Speculation China, U.S. Slowdown to Hurt Demand
  • Western Europe Faces Higher Construction Costs on Commodities
  • Commodities May Be Poised to Decline 9.7%: Technical Analysis
  • Pemex Bonds Trading Safest to Petrobras in Year: Mexico Credit
  • Uranium Spot Prices Fall as Vacation Season Cuts Demand, Ux Says
  • Corn Drops as Rally to 2-Month High Slows Demand; Soybeans Fall
  • Copper Extends Drop After Report on Germany’s GDP: LME Preview
  • Oil Declines as Investors Speculate Global Economy Is Slowing

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • EUROPE: crash continues Germany down hard on a real big slowdown in; FTSE down -1.2% on stagflation.
  • GERMANY – when the best of a bad bunch is crashing, you get paid to pay attention; Germany’s Q2 GDP growth was cut in half sequentially to 2.8% vs 5.2% in Q1; German stocks down another 2% and crashing (down -22% since May)

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro markets

ASIAN MARKETS

  • ASIA: no follow through; watch Singapore who leads in the East, down hard -1.5% overnight and signaling continues Asian growth slowdown
  • SINGAPORE –Singapore advises China and the rest of the region on upside/downside scenarios and now Singapore stocks are leading the East to the downside (down another -1.5% overnight)

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

Howard Penney

Managing Director