Notable news items, macro data points, and price action pertaining to the restaurant space.






The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 54.9 versus consensus of 62 for August.  This is the lowest level for the index since the 1980’s.





Recent gyrations in the stock market are impacting consumer preferences, as the chart below shows.


THE HBM: THI, DNKN, BWLD - ground beef steak



Restaurant Employment


Restaurant employment has hit its highest levels since the third quarter of 2007, a surprising trend that suggests operators face a difficult task in attracting and retaining employees.




To end a very volatile week, the full service sector underperformed.  The underperformance can be traced to the severe decline in consumer confidence and RRGB suggesting that consumer my be reacting to the decline in the market over the past three weeks.


THE HBM: THI, DNKN, BWLD - subsector fbr




  • THI raised to “Buy” at Edward Jones.
  • DNKN, according to Bloomberg News, is seeking to replicate its cult-like following in the Northeast in new regions in the U.S., particularly out west.  Hedgeye has been clear in our belief that this will be extremely difficult and costly given the existing brands in the western U.S.


  • BWLD raised to “Buy” at Sterne, Agee, & Leach.




Howard Penney

Managing Director


Rory Green


Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

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People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

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UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

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REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

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Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

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Premium insight

[UNLOCKED] Today's Daily Trading Ranges

“If I could only have one thing of the many things we have it would be my daily ranges." Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough said recently.

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We'll Say It Again: Leave Your Politics Out of Your Portfolio

If your politics dictates your portfolio positioning, the Democrats and #NeverTrump crowd out there have had a hell of a week.

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Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

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