TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - August 11, 2011
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 93 points or -7.28% downside to 1093 and 0.61% upside to 1186.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 850 (-1752)
- VOLUME: NYSE 1256.14 (-33.25%)
- VIX: 36.36 -6.77% YTD PERFORMANCE: +104.85%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.79 from 1.38 (+29.50%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 28.50
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.02% -0.01%
- 10-Year: 2.24 from 2.34
- YIELD CURVE: 2.04 from 2.15
MACRO DATA POINTS:
- 8:30 a.m.: NOPA oil, soybean data
- 8:30 a.m.: Empire Manufacturing, est. 0, prior -3.76
- 9 a.m.: Net Long-term TIC Flows, est. $30.1b, prior $23.6b
- 10 a.m.: NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 15, prior 15
- 11 a.m.: Corn, soybeans, wheat
- 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $29b 3-mo., $27b 6-mo. bills
- 1:25 p.m.: Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Alabama
- 4 p.m.: Crop conditions: corn, cotton, soybeans, winter wheat
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Transocean offered to buy Norway’s Aker Drilling for $1.4b
- Paulson & Co., Berkshire Hathaway, Pershing Square among those scheduled to release holdings as of June 30 by end of day today
- ConAgra Foods said that Ralcorp Holdings rejected a $5.18b takeover offer within 24 hours and without discussion
- Apple, Google and rival handset and software makers are competing for top patent lawyers as litigation floods courtrooms worldwide.
- Rise of the Planet of the Apes” remained top movie in U.S. and Canadian theaters for second weekend as predicted, totaling $27.5m in ticket sales for News Corp.’s Twentieth Century Fox.
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION
MOST POPULAR COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:
- Hedge Fund Oil Bets Tumble to Eight-Month Low: Energy Markets
- Rice Set to Climb as Thailand Plans Curbs, U.S. Crop Drops
- Funds Slash Commodity Bets by Most in 18 Months on Economy
- Mushrooms Join List of Radiation Threats to Japan’s Food Chain
- Gold Drops for Third Day as Equities Rebound Trims Haven Demand
- Oil Stems Three-Week Decline as Japan Counters Growth Concern
- Ditching Nuclear Risks Third Lost Decade in Japan on Oil
- Sugar to Stay High as China, Indonesia Buy More, ISO Says
- Copper Advances as U.S., Japanese Data Boost Outlook for Demand
- Aluminum Demand in China Set to Double Over Decade, XinRen Says
- Recent Commodities Volatility ‘Unsustainable:’ Citigroup’s Morse
- ConAgra Says Ralcorp Took Less Than a Day to Reject Revised Bid
- Newcrest Has Record Full-Year Profit, Pays Special Dividend
- Crude Climbs as Japanese Economy Contracts Less Than Forecast
- Thai Sugar Production May Fall From a Record in 2011-2012
- Gold May Fall a Third Day in London on Reduced Investor Demand
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
- Low quality rally in Europe with the important markets like Germany are underperforming.
- UK Aug house price index (2.1%) m/m, (0.3%) y/y the first annual fall since Sep 2009 -- Rightmove
ASIAN MARKETS
- ASIA: India and Korea are closed - generally rally was on low volume to lower highs; China +1.3%; Japan +1.4%; Singapore +0.82%
MIDDLE EAST
Howard Penney
Managing Director