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    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - August 11, 2011

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 93 points or -7.28% downside to 1093 and 0.61% upside to 1186.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 815

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 850 (-1752)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1256.14 (-33.25%)
  • VIX:  36.36 -6.77% YTD PERFORMANCE: +104.85%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.79 from 1.38 (+29.50%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 28.50
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.02% -0.01%
  • 10-Year: 2.24 from 2.34    
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.04 from 2.15

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 8:30 a.m.: NOPA oil, soybean data
  • 8:30 a.m.: Empire Manufacturing, est. 0, prior -3.76
  • 9 a.m.: Net Long-term TIC Flows, est. $30.1b, prior $23.6b
  • 10 a.m.: NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 15, prior 15
  • 11 a.m.: Corn, soybeans, wheat
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $29b 3-mo., $27b 6-mo. bills
  • 1:25 p.m.: Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Alabama
  • 4 p.m.: Crop conditions: corn, cotton, soybeans, winter wheat

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Transocean offered to buy Norway’s Aker Drilling for $1.4b
  • Paulson & Co., Berkshire Hathaway, Pershing Square among those scheduled to release holdings as of June 30 by end of day today
  • ConAgra Foods said that Ralcorp Holdings rejected a $5.18b takeover offer within 24 hours and without discussion
  • Apple, Google and rival handset and software makers are competing for top patent lawyers as litigation floods courtrooms worldwide.
  • Rise of the Planet of the Apes” remained top movie in U.S. and Canadian theaters for second weekend as predicted, totaling $27.5m in ticket sales for News Corp.’s Twentieth Century Fox.

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

                               

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

MOST POPULAR COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Hedge Fund Oil Bets Tumble to Eight-Month Low: Energy Markets
  • Rice Set to Climb as Thailand Plans Curbs, U.S. Crop Drops
  • Funds Slash Commodity Bets by Most in 18 Months on Economy
  • Mushrooms Join List of Radiation Threats to Japan’s Food Chain
  • Gold Drops for Third Day as Equities Rebound Trims Haven Demand
  • Oil Stems Three-Week Decline as Japan Counters Growth Concern
  • Ditching Nuclear Risks Third Lost Decade in Japan on Oil
  • Sugar to Stay High as China, Indonesia Buy More, ISO Says
  • Copper Advances as U.S., Japanese Data Boost Outlook for Demand
  • Aluminum Demand in China Set to Double Over Decade, XinRen Says
  • Recent Commodities Volatility ‘Unsustainable:’ Citigroup’s Morse
  • ConAgra Says Ralcorp Took Less Than a Day to Reject Revised Bid
  • Newcrest Has Record Full-Year Profit, Pays Special Dividend
  • Crude Climbs as Japanese Economy Contracts Less Than Forecast
  • Thai Sugar Production May Fall From a Record in 2011-2012
  •  Gold May Fall a Third Day in London on Reduced Investor Demand

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • Low quality rally in Europe with the important markets like Germany are underperforming.
  • UK Aug house price index (2.1%) m/m, (0.3%) y/y the first annual fall since Sep 2009 -- Rightmove

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

ASIAN MARKETS

  • ASIA: India and Korea are closed - generally rally was on low volume to lower highs; China +1.3%; Japan +1.4%; Singapore +0.82%

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

Howard Penney

Managing Director