GENTING SINGAPORE: 2Q11 CONF CALL NOTES

Only slightly below us but well below the Street

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE RELEASE

  • RWS net revenue of S$716MM and Adjusted EBITDA of S$352.5MM
    • Gaming net revenue of S$583.9MM and non-gaming revenue of S$132.1MM
    • Hotel occupancy of 88% and ADR of S$317
    • USS average daily visitation of 10,300 and spend per visit of S$83
  • "Win percentage in the premium player market segment for second quarter of 2011 was significantly lower than the theoretical win and that of first quarter of 2011"
  • "The Maritime Experiential Museum will open in October 2011, followed by the world-wide debut of Transformers - a major blockbuster attraction in USS in December 2011...At the end of this year, we will add more luxury rooms at our high end West Zone...These accommodations, when fully completed by first quarter of 2012, will be highly complementary to our vision to be the playground for the rich and famous in Asia."

CONF CALL NOTES

  • Maintained 55% of the GGR in 1H11
    • After 60% in Q1, we think share dropped to 48% in Q2
  • Had a hold % of 2.66%. RC volume was lower while the Mass market remained stable
  • Sales and market activities continue to ramp up
  • Focus will continue to be on premium customers
  • In the short term they remain cautious due to the recent market turmoil

 

Q&A

  • Hold impact in the quarter? Theo is 2.8-3.0%, if they adjust then the EBITDA margins would have been 51%. Revenues would be 5% higher.
    • If hold was 2.9% revenues we estimate that revenues would have been S$39MM higher and EBITDA would be S$33MM higher
  • In their view the local Singapore market that is interested in gambling has already been tapped. In order to increase their Mass revenue they need to attract more international visitors. There are a lot more regional Asian flights coming into the Singapore.  More hotel rooms coming online over the next few years will also help grow the Mass market
  • Continue to see a lot of VIP players coming from abroad.  VIP players from Singapore are a small percentage of total VIP players
  • They are concerned on how the market crash in Europe and US will impact Asia, but so far there has been no impact on their business
  • VIP RC declined 13% QoQ
  • Win rate in the Mass market was consistent QoQ
  • There are no seasonal patterns that they can discern thus far
  • Think that the international markets will be a source of growth.  MBS has the advantage of more hotel rooms and the number of hotel rooms that surround their property compared to their property which has a location disadvantage
  • When do they expect some growth in the VIP segment? 
    • They believe that 2Q results were impacted by CNY which benefited the first quarter.  They are optimistic that they will do well on the RC chip side
  • Mass market EGT reconfiguration? 1,800 machines on site - by year end they will reach the max of 2,500.
  • There was some growth in slot revenue in the 2nd Q and believe that once the reconfiguration is complete there will be even more growth
  • No change in the commissions
  • Will have 550 table games by year end assuming they go to 2500 slots.  Currently they have 543 table games. Expect the mix of tables to remain 1/3 VIP and 2/3 Mass
  • Net gaming revenue  - 34% was VIP and RC revenue was 49% of their gross gaming revenue.
  • They are happy with the current commission structure and have no plans to change it in the near future
  • Market share of VIP turnover was - 52%
  • Where is the $60MM investment they made was in PP&E. The investment was not to offset any gaming debt
  • Mass & Slot share of GGR is around 51%
  • Mass market margins have remained the same QoQ
  • USS generates a lot of FCF for them once they are past the B/E point. For every extra 1,000 people they bring down it all drops down to the bottom line. Transformers will be a major attraction for them.
  • The new hotel will have 200 rooms which are very large. Will help grow the VIP.   Have about 120 rooms now that are "VIP". Will open by year end - but the villas will open in Feb/March 2012
  • If the interest rates remain low than the interest expense will remain low at these levels. Paying only 1.45%. Interest expense should stay at below S$30 
  • Credit extension has not been impacted by the recent global events. Don't expect to make any changes to credit policy
  • Cash spend on the Western Zone - S$600-800MM in the next 12-14 months. The S$500MM that was spent in 1H was for payment of prior completed capex
  • Will be repaying S$500MM of their term loan per year starting in 2012
  • Marine Park will open in mid 2012 and there will be no more major capex
  • Not all of their VIP business is from mainland China - a lot of Chinese live elsewhere
  • Total GGR market share for 2Q - 50%; the 50% share on handle and drop for Mass was 51%
  • Again, we think it was sub-50%
  • Number of casino visitors QoQ has been quite consistent 
  • Malaysian contribution to casino? Their visitation from Malaysia is still very strong
  • They are looking at further markets like Japan and Korea for marketing? There is no movement politically in Japan for gaming approval. They don't see gambling legislation moving too fast in Korea
  • Use of cash?
    • Looking at a number of projects that they don't want to discuss for competitive reasons
    • Hope to utilize that cash in the 12-24 months
  • 67% VIP RC share in the 2Q
  • Receiveables are growing is because the business itself is still growing. The receivable has been growing at a similar pace to revenue. Will have aging information at year end.
  • Roughly 95% of their gaming space is utilized
  • There is some overlap between the 2 IR customers
  • Has the Singapore market reached saturation?
    • MBS is always more optimistic than they are. They are working hard to build top and bottom line. Its still tough to know what the market growth will be going forward because there aren't any clear seasonal trends that have emerged. They are also more leisure oriented.

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