• Bull.




Our Industrials analyst Jay Van Sciver is hosting a Flash Call on Tesla and the state of the EV industry this Thursday at 2PM EST. If you'd like to access this call click here.

FLASH CALL: Is Tesla the Best Short In the Market Right Now? | $TSLA $VFS $LCID $RIVN - 03.18.2019 Tesla cartoon

As we approach the shareholder vote on June 13th, Tesla's market indicators continue to deteriorate. It is odd for a part-time billionaire CEO to campaign so publicly for an outsized payday; we doubt sophisticated shareholders are pleased by the implicit threats and conflicts. Tesla price increases at the start of Q2 have already been reversed; it is evidently struggling with inventory in an oversupplied market. So many new EVs have debuted that Tesla’s aging 3/Y platform, essentially a single product on which revenue overwhelmingly depends, is no longer interesting in the competitive field.  Auto gross margins have nearly halved since Q1 2022, putting Tesla in a precarious position as it tries convincing the market it is an AI, robotics, and any other trendy sort of company that isn’t what it is…an automaker.

FLASH CALL: Is Tesla the Best Short In the Market Right Now? | $TSLA $VFS $LCID $RIVN - zjvs1

Despite reduced delivery guidance, plummeting used vehicle values, price cuts, a DOJ investigation, messy layoffs, and a shortage of credible products, consensus still forecasts a 2% growth in deliveries for 2024 with prices strengthening in the latter half of the year. That is doubtful. Our 2024 EPS estimate is still less than half of consensus; our 2025 EPS estimate is an even smaller fraction.  Scenarios with reported losses are increasingly likely.

FLASH CALL: Is Tesla the Best Short In the Market Right Now? | $TSLA $VFS $LCID $RIVN - zjvs2

We’ll outline the broader EV adoption trends, changes to subsidy regimes, the impact of the election/tariffs, and more in our TSLA/EV Flash Call this Thursday (5/23) at 2 pm EST.