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HEDGEYE MACRO: IS THIS A SHORT COVERING OPPORTUNITY?

HEDGEYE MACRO: IS THIS A SHORT COVERING OPPORTUNITY?

AN ANALYSIS OF RECENT MARKET ACTION AND UPDATE ON OUR KEY THEMES

CONFERENCE CALL THIS WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 10, 2011, 11am EDT 

 

Valued Hedgeye Client:

  

The Hedgeye Macro Team, led by CEO Keith McCullough and Director of Research Daryl Jones, will be hosting a call this coming Wednesday August 10th at 11am EDT to discuss recent global market action and our key current risk management views.

 

Please note the time of the call is now 11am EDT, not 1pm, to allow our Financials Sector Head Josh Steiner to join us to provide a preview of the Bank of America call that will be occurring at 1pm.

 

Key topics we will be addressing: 

  • Does the SP500 off over 15% from its YTD highs present a short covering opportunity?
  • Given our outlook for the global economy, what are the key drivers over the intermediate term?
  • Sovereign debt issues and the likelihood of resolution, both in the United States and Europe.
  • Update of Hedgeye's quantitative and fundamental view of key assets classes - e.g. U.S. dollar, oil, gold, treasuries and copper.
  • Hedgeye's top macro and asset allocation ideas. 

Please contact  if you do not currently subscribe to out Macro vertical and would like to attend this conference and receive the materials. The materials and dial-in information will be automatically circulated the morning of the call to current Macro clients.

 

As always, we'll have a robust live Q&A session. If you'd like to submit questions in advance of or during the call, please email .

 

Please contact  if you have any questions.

 

Regards,

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team 

 

ABOUT HEDGEYE

Hedgeye Risk Management is a leading independent provider of real-time investment research. Focused exclusively on generating and delivering actionable investment ideas, the firm combines quantitative, bottom-up and macro analysis with an emphasis on timing. The Hedgeye team features some of the world's most regarded research analysts - united around a vision of independent, uncompromised real-time investment research as a service.

 

ABOUT KEITH MCCULLOUGH

Prior to founding Hedgeye Risk Management, Keith built a track record as a successful hedge fund manager at the Carlyle-Blue Wave Partners hedge fund, Magnetar Capital, Falconhenge Partners, and Dawson-Herman Capital Management. He got his start as an institutional equity sales analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston after earning his Bachelor of Arts in Economics from Yale University, where he captained the Yale Varsity Hockey Team to a Division I Ivy League Championship. Keith is also a Contributing Editor to CNBC TV, Fortune Magazine and author of Diary of a Hedge Fund Manager (Wiley 2010). 

 

ABOUT DARYL JONES

Prior to joining Hedgeye Risk Management, Daryl was the Sector Head for Basic Materials at HIG Capital's hedge fund, Brightpoint Capital. Earlier, Daryl founded the public investment effort at Onex Corporation, a leading private equity firm. At Hedgeye, Daryl covers commodities, geo-politics and major asset classes outside of equities.


THE HBM: WEN, MCD, SBUX, YUM, BWLD, TXRH, CAKE

THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MENU

 

MACRO

 

Consumer

 

Today, the ICSC chain store sales index posted its second straight decline, falling 0.5% in the latest week. Year-over-year growth moderated to 3.6%, its lowest level in five weeks.

 

Confidence

 

Small businesses turned more pessimistic in July as the NFIB index fell from 90.8 to 89.9. The index has fallen for five consecutive months by a cumulative 4.7 points and puts the index below 90 for the first time since September 2010.

  • The net percent of small businesses planning to expand employment was 2%, compared with 3% in June and -1% in May.
  • Expectations for the economy to improve weakened, falling from -12% to -15% in July; this follows a sharp decline in June when expectations fell by 6%.

Subsectors

 

As earnings estimates continue to come in, Full Service continues to underperform.

 

THE HBM: WEN, MCD, SBUX, YUM, BWLD, TXRH, CAKE - subsectors fbr

 

 

QUICK SERVICE

  • WEN was reiterated Buy today by Deutsche Bank on improving brand positioning, discounted valuation, and sizeable cash position.
  • MCD was added to the Conviction Buy list at Goldman.
  • SBUX was raised to Outperform at Baird.
  • SBUX stores in New York City, at least the busy ones, have started blocking electrical outlets to discourage laptops users from taking up space for long periods of time.
  • YUM was raised to outperform at Baird.
  • On a relative basis the stock that outperformed yesterday were COSI, KKD, MCD PEET, THI, YUM, JACK and CMG.  MCD, PEET, THI and YUM stand out as being the best relative performers across multiple durations.

 

FULL SERVICE

  • BWLD was initiated Overweight at Barclays.
  • TXRH was cut to Neutral at Baird.
  • CAKE was cut to Neutral at Baird.
  • On a relative basis the stock that outperformed yesterday were: CEC, KONA, DRI, PFCB and BOBE.  KONA and DRI stand out as being two of the best relative performers across multiple durations.

THE HBM: WEN, MCD, SBUX, YUM, BWLD, TXRH, CAKE - stocks 89

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst

 


BULLISH OUTLOOK WOULD BE GOOD FOR MGM…AND BYD

The Q was decent but the real story is the outlook. A typically optimistic management team was particularly bullish about the Strip prospects.

 

 

If you believe MGM management and its positive outlook is sustainable, MGM looks like it’s going higher.  However, the better play might be BYD.  If history holds, then improving Strip results should result in locals LV growth with a lag.  Someone on the sell side has to make that connection.  The BYD analysts only have room for upgrades, the stock is at a 52 week low and cheap on an absolute and relative basis, and cash flow is accelerating – even without the assumption of a LV locals recovery.


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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - August 9, 2011

 

Markets around the world are crashing now. We define crash as a 20% peak-to-trough decline in price, but people tend to internalize crashes versus their own expectations. Given what consensus expectations for 2011 were based on, we’re not surprised.

 

The list of 2011 “CRASHES– from 2011 peak price: Greece = -43.9%, Italy -34.6%, Germany -25.6%, Financials (XLF) = -29.2%, Industrials (XLI) -23.7%... and now you are seeing daily emerging market moves of -8% (Brazil yesterday) to -12% (Romania this morning).

 

At Hedgeye we feel that waking up begging for Bernanke to arrest gravity is not a risk management process; away from cutting his US GDP growth estimates (again) today, what can he do? Buy bonds? They go up every day!

 

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 102 points or -4.42% downside to 1070 and 4.69% upside to 1172.

 

The Hedgeye models have a 3 standard deviation level of support at 1070 SPX and since 2008, 3 standard deviation moves occur frequently. Covering shorts on the down move, not busting out the gross long guns. At 1070, maybe!

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 89

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -3608 (-1565)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 2543.62 (+12.85%)
  • VIX:  48.00 +50.00% YTD PERFORMANCE: +170.42%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.04 from 2.59 (-20.99%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 23.92
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.05% +0.04%
  • 10-Year: 2.40 from 2.58    
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.13 from 2.30

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 7:30 a.m.: NFIB Small Business, est. 89.9, prior 90.8
  • 7:45 a.m./8:55 a.m.: ICSC/Redbook weekly retail sales
  • 8:30 a.m.: Non-farm productivity, est. (-0.9%), prior 1.8%
  • 11:30 a.m. U.S. to sell $35b in 4-wk bills
  • Noon: DoE short-term energy outlook
  • 1 p.m.: U.S. to sell $32b in 3-yr notes
  • 2:15 p.m.: FOMC Rate Decision
  • 4:30 p.m.: API inventories

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • S&P cuts the AAA ratings of thousands of municipal bonds tied to the government, including housing securities and debt backed by leases
  • U.S. home values had their smallest decline in more than 4 years in 2Q, as the share of borrowers with negative equity shrunk, Zillow says
  • China’s inflation climbs 6.5% in July, the fastest pace in 3 years

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Gold Advances to Record as Equity Rout Stokes Investor Demand
  • Crude Falls to 10-Month Low in New York; Brent Dips Below $100
  • Hay Sent to China Cheaper Roiling U.S. Dairies: Freight Markets
  • Oil Supply Rises in Survey on Reserves, Imports: Energy Markets
  • Copper, Aluminum, Lead Climb on Intervention Hope After Slump
  • Commodities Slump to Eight-Month Low as Slowdown Erodes Demand
  • Rice Futures in Tokyo Jump by Daily Maximum on Radiation Fears
  • Aquila CEO Says ‘Dozens’ Are Studying Coal Acquisition
  • Copper Output in China Advances to Record as Aluminum Drops
  • Palm Oil Drops to 9-Month Low as Slowdown May Reduce Demand
  • Gold Rises to Record as U.S. Rating Cut Spurs ‘Heavy’ Buying
  • Texas Dust-Bowl Redux Spurs Record U.S. Cotton Loss, Farm Claims
  • Corn Drops to One-Week Low as ‘Gloomy Economy’ May Lower Demand

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • EUROPE: looking on the bright side, provided you aren't long Romania (down -12% this morning)

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

  • ASIA: KOSPI down the most of the majors (ex HK), down -3.6% and -19.2% since MAY, proving once again that governments should just get out of way
  • China stopped going down last night - that’s as critical an indicator of support as there is in Asia; Australia stocks followed that higher
  • CHINA – the data was fine with JULY inflation data (CPI) all but assured to be the high for 2011 YTD; Chinese stocks stopped going down last night on that news and that’s the 1stmarket we buy in global equities; not Germany or USA

 THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


Old Men

This note was originally published at 8am on August 04, 2011. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“By 1918 everyone under the age of forty was in a bad temper with his elder…there was among the young, a curious hatred of “old men”.  The dominance of “old men” was held to be responsible for every evil known to humanity”

-George Orwell

 

The easiest path for an individual to take when faced with a suboptimal set of circumstances is to shift the blame, or burden, to another party.  For anyone that has been part of a team, be it a sports team or any group of people striving towards an individual goal, what sets a good team apart from a bad team is that the individuals therein do not shirk from responsibility or duty – they seek it and thrive as a result. 

 

Lately Keith has been constantly highlighting the (wit and) wisdom one of the great American winners of recent times – Vince Lombardi.  During a time of political and economic turmoil, the philosophies of leaders like Lombardi are far more likely to lead us out of the situation we face than those currently holding court in Washington D.C. 

 

“Old men” being hated in 1918 sounds quite similar to “old men” being hated in 2011.  The hatred of 2011, in my imagination, is not aimed solely at men of a certain age – I hope to become an old man one day – rather, it is aimed at men, typically old, that are stuck in old methodologies that have failed time and again. 

 

Rather than stopping, rethinking, reworking, and evolving, “old men” in 2011 simply press replay all the while expecting a new outcome.  Political and economic dogma is what is drawing ire among voters and market participants. 

 

Yesterday rumors that the most recent of the “old men” to head up the Federal Reserve in this country, Ben Bernanke, will start a fresh round of stimulus may have prevented the longest slump in performance of the Dow average since 1978; the Dow had fallen for eight consecutive days on the back of growing concern that the U.S. economy may slow further and that the $1.07 trillion in lost market value from American equities over the eight-day slump could begin to negatively impact consumer spending. 

 

History shows that “Old Men” in the financial industry have generally been put out to pasture by fresher, more original and adaptive players.   It is Hedgeye’s view that dogma and opacity will be exposed, real-time, in the finance world of tomorrow.  Whether it is via Twitter or another medium, the hatred of “Old Men”, and the conventions of their era, is driving the debate into the open.  In the research world, that is where Hedgeye is positioning itself.

 

The hedge fund industry is also changing.  It always has.  The book “More Money Than God”, by Sebastian Mallaby chronicles the history of a small group of people that shaped the hedge fund industry.  From the creator of “hedged” funds, Alfred Winslow Jones, to George Soros, the professional longevity of each character was largely defined by his ability to stop and rethink.  Jones did not adapt and so his protégés abandoned his firm upon realizing that the fund’s successes were down to them and not Jones. 

 

Soros, having studied the philosophy of Karl Popper at LSE in the middle of the twentieth century, held firm the belief that humans simply cannot know the truth.  He then developed this own idea of how markets work, building off the thoughts of Popper, called the Theory of Reflexivity.  The development of this theory enabled Soros to retire as a hedge fund manager with his abilities as an investor almost never questioned, nor deemed out of date, by his peers.  In terms of managing money, specifically, Soros may now be a man of a certain age but he never allowed himself to be one of the “Old Men”.

 

What’s clear at this point is that the bad team of “Old Men” in Washington is spending the majority of its time apportioning blame and jostling for media limelight.  The signs of Americans’ hatred for these “Old Men” are everywhere to see: consumer confidence, the stock market, 45.75 million people on food stamps (no double-dip for these folks, just one long downturn).  The number of people receiving food stamps increased 12%, year-over-year, in May 2011.  Alabama is the state that saw the largest increase at 120%.

 

Our troubles are causing the “Old Men” abroad to respond because it is starting to hurt other economies too.  Japan is following Switzerland in intervening in the currency markets as the currencies’ “safe haven” status could hurt their respective economies.   Europe is constantly on edge, fearful of contagion, and ready at a moment’s notice to extend further bailouts to periphery nations.

 

Blaming “Old Men” won’t fix any problems in the financial system, nor will it fix any problems in Washington D.C.  Leaders stepping forward to enact change for the better have to have the courage to do so. 

 

That is what Hedgeye is attempting to do in our small part of the world and our clients, critics, and supporters help us sustain our efforts.  Globally, governments are being overrun by dogmatic “Old Men” eager to get, and stay, in office. 

 

Irrespective of the performance of the S&P 500, the fortunes of Main Street America have not been improved over the past two years; some new ideas are needed.

 

Function in disaster; finish in style

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Old Men - foodstamps may 2011

 

Old Men - Virtual Portfolio



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