"They" are right freaked ahead of Halloween, shocking...

Surely, you’ve seen today’s US consumer confidence levels – they hit a record low, and the information starved media pounced on it. Was this a surprise? Apparently to some, unfortunately, it was!

Touching the 845 level, the S&P500 bottomed intraday shortly after this revisionist historian data was released. If you sold that low, you probably fee shame here – I would. Manage risk proactively rather than reactively - that’s been as clear a lesson in 2008 as any.

Interestingly, 5000 consumers answered the confidence survey this month. The responses that they provided were more negative than the answers that their parents gave in 1980 when CPI inflation levels were approaching a 13% increase year-over-year and the revolutionary Iranian government was holding 52 American citizens hostage. The responses they provided this month were also more negative that the responses that their grandparents gave in 1975 when US unemployment levels reached 9% and Saigon fell to the North Vietnamese army.

Historical context is always critical. People are right freaked out here. I used to be, but with the S&P500 45% higher. Buy low, sell high.

Keith McCullough & Andrew Barber.
Research Edge LLC