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Water Crashes

“Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless – like water.”

-Bruce Lee

 

With stock and commodity markets around the world crashing, let’s review the two things that Fiat Fools who fundamentally believe that they can arrest economic gravity do to markets:

 

1.       They shorten economic cycles

2.       They amplify market volatility

 

So, let’s fire up La Bernank this morning and do some more of that!

 

C’mon. Really? Europe has its own issues to deal with, but is America that dumb? Americans didn’t stand for Fed Head Arthur Burns and President Jimmy Carter perpetuating economic stagflation in the mid 1970s, and I don’t think they will now.

 

Wall Street/Washington is not America.

 

Some asset managers may very well think that’s America. Some are already begging for Bernanke’s bazooka this morning. But they should remember a very important factor in the business of money management – they are managing other people’s money.

 

Like it did when they were begging for “shock and awe” rate cuts in 2008, other people’s money is crashing, again. So let’s review: 

 

1.   EUROPE:

 

A)     Greece is gone – crashed (down -43.9% since FEB 2011)

B)     Italy, crashing - MIB Index down -34.6% since FEB 2011

C)     Germany, crashing – DAX down -25.6% since May 2nd(and that’s the healthiest European economy!)

 

2.   USA:

 

A)     Financials (XLF) – crashed (down 29.2% since FEB 2011)

B)     Industrials (XLI) – crashed (down -23.7% since APR 2011)

C)     Basic Materials (XLB) – crashed (down -22.2% since APR 2011)

 

Now what does the end of April and early May 2011 have in common with both German and most US stocks putting in lower long-term highs versus the 2007 bubble peaks?

 

Ah, oui, oui, mes amis – c’est La Bernank!

 

Let’s not forget that April 2011 was the date whereby Ben Bernanke one-upped his own record setting precedent pace, debauched the US Dollar to all-time lows (post Nixon 1971, post Gold Standard), and held the Fed’s 1stever Global Press Conference On Money Printing.

 

Nice Trade… until it blew everyone up who was chasing yield.

 

What about the long-term TAIL risk associated with the gargantuan Fiat Fool Experiment that Bernanke’s Princeton buddy Paul Krugman encouraged the Japanese to engage in before locking themselves in the Keynesian death grip of GROWTH SLOWING?

 

Since 1992, Japan’s average annual GDP Growth has been 0.85%. And while that’s actually better than what Bernanke produced in Q1 of 2011 (0.36% US GDP Growth), that’s still not good.

 

On top of its debt and deficit problems… America, now we have a GROWTH problem. And if we think we are going to solve it by printing moneys and begging for La Bernank, we deserve to keep crashing.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Whether we are going to thank them for making up their numbers like we do in this country or just thank them for not completely imploding their economy overnight, China – Thank you.

 

Last night’s Chinese economic data for July was as follows:

  1. INFLATION: CPI only up 10 bps in July to 6.5% y/y (vs. 6.4% in June)
  2. GROWTH: Industrial Production growth slowed sequentially in July to 14% y/y (vs. 15.1% in June)
  3. INVESTMENT: Fixed Assets Investment YTD growth slowed marginally in July to 25.4% y/y (vs. 25.6% in June)

I put inflation at the top of this 3-factor model because that’s really what China needs to solve for in Q3/Q4 of 2011. If they do (and we think they will), Chinese inflation growth should slow towards +5% year-over-year with GDP Growth running closer to 8%.

 

Chinese economic growth has been slowing for 15 months as inflation accelerated. Commodity inflation in China was perpetuated by the US Federal Reserve printing money (Global Commodities trade in US Dollars). Now we are seeing what Hedgeye has called for (a Deflating The Inflation) – and that’s a very good thing for China.

 

Deflating The Inflation is also a very good thing for you, The Consumer. And, in the end, instead of money printing I think 95% of Americans would take a 30% off sale at the pump than another call by Goldman to buy oil at $112/barrel (where Hedgeye said short oil – not that we keep a time stamp on these things or anything).

 

When it comes to calling this Globally Interconnected Market, “empty your mind, be formless, shapeless – like water.” Money printing may have very well flowed from the gushers of Academia’s Keynesian Dogma for the last few years but, as Bruce Lee reminds us: “Now water can flow or it can crash.”

 

“Be water, my friend.”

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil, and the SP500 are now $1, $78.54-91.66, and 1070-1172, respectively. Our asset allocation in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model maintains a 0% position in US and European Equities and a 67% position in Cash. In the Hedgeye Portfolio, I covered shorts yesterday and will look to re-short strength today.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Water Crashes - Chart of the Day

 

Water Crashes - Virtual Portfolio


MGM 2Q11 CONF CALL NOTES

Decent hold adjusted quarter. Forward commentary was very bullish and better than we expected.

 

 

“We have shown growth in year over year cash flows throughout the first half and expect those trends will continue. We believe the foundation of the Las Vegas recovery is solid and our business is building”

- Jim Murren, MGM Resorts International Chairman and CEO

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE RELEASE

  • Adjusted EBITDA: $366MM
    • Domestic wholly owned Adjusted Property EBITDA :$331MM
      • "Despite a lower table games hold percentage in the current quarter and an approximately $12 million impact related to the state mandated closure of Gold Strike Tunica in May 2011"
      • "Casino revenue ... increased 1%... . The overall table games hold percentage... was below the low end of the Company’s normal range of 19% to 23%. The overall table games hold percentage in the second quarter of 2010 was near the low end of the Company’s normal range which affected Adjusted Property EBITDA by approximately $27 million when compared to the mid point of the Company’s normal range." 

      • "Slots revenue increased 4% compared to the prior year quarter, including an increase of 7% at the Company’s Las Vegas Strip resorts."

      • Las Vegas RevPAR +10%
    • City Center Adjusted EBITDA: $64MM
      • "Positively affected by a higher than normal table games hold percentage."
      • Net Revenue: $275MM
      • Aria:
        • Net revenue: $233MM
        • Adjusted Property EBITDA: $53MM (includes an $18MM benefit from high hold)
        • RevPAR: $181 (ADR: $202/ Occ: 90%)
        • Vdara Adjusted Property EBITDA: $5MM
        • Crystals Adjusted Property EBITDA: $6MM
        • Residential impairments: $53MM
    • MGM China Adjusted EBITDA: $170MM
      • Net Revenue: $668MM
      • "Primarily due to an increase in VIP table games turnover of 110% and a 21% increase in main floor table games drop. VIP table games hold percentage was slightly above our expected range of 2.7% to 3.0%"
      • EBITDA includes $3MM of branding fees
      • D&A: $75MM
  • Balance Sheet:
    • Cash & equivalents: $922MM ($417MM at MGM China)
    • Debt: $12.8BN
      • $2.3BN under the MGM resorts credit facility
      • MGM Macau Credit facility: $591MM
      • $1.2BN of borrowing capacity

 

CONF CALL NOTES

  • In Las Vegas, they expect to see continuous improvement in the back half of the year and into 2012
  • Net net adjusted for hold and the losses at CC residential, Adjusted EBITDA would have been $422MM  
  • Increase in short term bookings and strong demand across the portfolio led to stronger than expected RevPAR at MGM. June was their strongest month - up mid teens %.  FIT/Retail is their strongest segment in Vegas. National rated play was great, but international was weaker
  • In Detroit, they had the best quarter in slot play
  • Seeing a recovery in the domestic consumer and are benefiting from M Life. With the completion of the M Life roll-out they expect to see increases in non-gaming businesses as well.
  • Promotional spend is down as a result of more targeted marketing
  • Recovery in Vegas is broadbased - luxury saw 9% EBITDA improvement and core properties saw a 16% increase in EBITDA
  • Tunica is now back on track and performing well
  • D&A: $85-95MM per quarter going forward due to Macau consolidation
  • Leverage for June 30th is 8x - pro forma for MGM Macau consolidation
  • MGM CHINA:
    • $22.4BN VIP RC
    • Mass Drop: $544MM
    • Slot handle: $862MM
  • NJ approved the extended plan for MGM to divest their share in Borgata
  • Bellagio's room remodel program started this quarter and will be completed by YE. Expect a $30/night room premuim when the renovation is complete. MGM Grand will begin their room remodel later this year and it will last one year.
  • City Center
    • ARIA: Benefited from growth in the convention segment and from strong table and slot volume
    • Vdara: 1300 hotel rooms online
    • Crystals: SS sales up 24% YoY- 2nd highest sales per SQFT in Las Vegas
    • Residential sales pace is slow, but the leasing program is good - 346 units were leased to date with expected revenue of $8MM
  • Las Vegas:
    • booking pace for the summer is up nicely and for the fall as well
    • +10% in 3Q RevPAR
    • Sept & Oct months are exceptionally strong. Convention mix up 300bps YoY.
    • Event calendar is also strong in the back half of the year
    • Expect that these trends will continue into year end
    • Expect to be able to drive these revenue improvement to the bottom line
  • Hoping to secure land approval in Cotai in short order
  • Looking for other expansion opportunities in Asia and beyond

 

Q&A

  • They had a poor April  - held very poorly. In May, June and July they've done well. They've been enjoying a high end resurgence recently.
  • Doesn't anticipate to cut material costs from here - payroll is pretty flat. Look to cut expenses in February every year. Their results are improving so there doesn't seem to be a reason to cut more costs
  • F&B, retail, entertainment were all up in the quarter and are seeing those trends continue into the summer
  • Slot business in Las Vegas:
    • General improvement in the customer coming to Vegas
    • General increase in RevPOR which drives slot play
    • M Life helping
  • MGM Macau: Adding a lounge next week in August. In-house VIP upgrade coming online later this year.  There is an opportunity to add more leverage in Macau. They will look at a new facility to bring down the cost of debt.
  • Delta between group and leisure in Las Vegas. Convention is relatively flat YoY but they've seen a nice pickup in the retail channel.
  • Expect to be up again in 2012 for Convention rate; Leisure & Retail is driving confidence in 3Q. Seeing similar growth in convention and leisure block.
  • Macau VIP hold was 3.1%
  • This past weekend was packed in Vegas. They have had no changes in their call center, booking, or consumption activity over the last week or so.
  • July share decrease was hold related
  • Cash ADR - the entire increase was cash because the comp rate was flat YoY
  • Weakest component at Aria is the entertainment  - primarily the Cirque show. Think that Aria should have done a little better in the quarter but are happy with the performance.  The show is only 1/2 occupied. A good show should contribute $40-50MM of EBITDA.  Their show doesn't contribute any EBITDA nor does it bring in the traffic benefit. 
  • Aria win per slot per day: +9% from $188 to $206
  • General strength in the Macau market has continued. Liquidity has remained strong. Market is pretty stable regarding commissions.
  • Convention mix is the smallest % of business in the 3rd Q - 12.5-13% this year.  Rate delta is $40-60 between leisure and convention.
  • 12% increase in active players in their database since launching M Life and average spend per trip increased 4%. Up double digits in people moving up in tiers. Added 500k customers in 2Q. At 1.5MM enrollments YTD.
  • Mirage had its biggest booking month in July.  Booking months in general are not falling but accelerating at some properties.
  • Highly unlikely that they will be tapping the debt or equity market from MGM this year. They will be in the bank market.
  • Already brought back $190MM of cash from the Macau JV
  • Goal is to deleverage the company
  • Booking pace in 2012 is a lot less informative on the retail business booked - which really only books out up to 4-5 months in advance.  Mandalay Bay has been sold out pretty much for the next 4 months. Going into the fall they hope to be 80% booked on the convention side. Have 60% of their rooms book for 2012.
  • Are prepared to start moving dirt in Macau as soon as they get approval. Would take about 3 years to build once they have approval.
  • Haven't decided on a dividend payment strategy for MGM Macau - they will meet with the board and discuss. They do want to leave powder to grow. 
  • Their revenues from mgmt hotel contracts won't be substantial until 2013/2014.  They expect that they will generate $50MM in a few years and then hitting $100MM.
  • Have 65 units left at Mandarin, at Veer have 202 units remaining

Covering Japan… We’ll Be Back

Conclusion: We covered our Japan short earlier this afternoon, as it is immediate-term TRADE oversold. The intermediate and long-term issues facing the Japanese economy remain, however.

 

Position: Covered our Japanese equities short (EWJ).

 

Today, Keith covered our short-Japanese equities position with the Virtual Portfolio for a gain. The position – perhaps aided by the global equity market selloff – continues to be one of our core theses in Asia over the intermediate and long term. From an intermediate-term perspective, the bearish catalysts remain: 

  • ZERO interest rate policy continues to depress confidence and growth;
  • Burgeoning debt/deficits is setting up a likely a growth-negative fiscal adjustment;
  • Regulatory uncertainty surrounding the timing of leadership changes and nuclear power regulation is depressing industrial production and both consumer and business confidence;
  • Sharp yen appreciation is weighing on corporate profits and (subsequently) job creation via declining business investment; and
  • Slowing sequential growth momentum bumping up against increasingly tough YoY economic growth comparisons. 

See our 8/1 note titled, “Things Are About to Get a lot Worse In Japan” and our 5/16 note titled, “Time to Press?: Revisiting Japan From a Secular Perspective” for more details.

 

Contrary to the consensus belief that quake/tsunami reconstruction is just what Japan needs to revive growth, we remain bearish on Japanese growth over the intermediate and long term. Despite Japan being very “cheap”, valuation, as consensus is finding out, remains no catalyst.

 

The economic grip around Japan’s Jugular is about to get incrementally tighter…

 

Darius Dale

Analyst

 

Covering Japan… We’ll Be Back - 1


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European Bank Swaps Shake

Positions in Europe: Short EUR-USD (FXE); Covered short EUFN (European Financials) today


Below is our European Financials CDS Monitor that is tracked weekly by our Financials Managing Director Josh Steiner and his team.  As we’ve noted in recent work, the rising spotlight on the sovereign health of Italy and Spain have sent bank stocks in both countries shaking. Announcements over the weekend from Spain and Italy to further tighten spending to reduce budget deficits and the ECB’s decision to re-activate its bond purchasing program (SMP) did little to quell investor fears today: European equities fell -2 to -6%, and most towards the latter end of the range. [For more see today’s note titled “European Risk Monitor: In the Red”].

 

While the “news” did send 10YR Italian and Spanish sovereign bond yields tumbling around 70bps day-over-day to 5.35% and 5.23% respectively, it’s clear that the ECB too is worried about bond yields creeping up in both countries. Our break-out yield target level remains 6%, which both have flirted around, even after the announcement of Greece’s second bailout on July 21st. 

 

As it relates to the banks, we see the 300bps (affectionately named the Lehman Brothers line) as a critical break-out momentum line. And here the score card is very telling. Currently 13 out of the 39 large European banks are trading over the 300bps line. If we focus on the banks of the peripheral countries, the majority of them are above 300bps, and a significant number have cleared the line by a country mile. We think many of these banks that defy the line are in serious risk of default. 

 

A breakdown of the monitor shows that bank swaps in Europe were mostly wider last week: 34 of the 38 swaps were wider and 4 tightened. 

 

Widened the most vs last week: Banco Popular Espanol (Spain), Svenska Handelsbanken, Barclays

Widened the least vs last week: Alpha Bank, EFG Eurobank, National Bank of Greece

Widened the most vs last month: Banco Popolare (Italy), Banco Pastor (Spain), Bayerische Hypo (Germany)

Tightened the most/widened the least vs last month: Alpha Bank (Greece), EFG Eurobank (Greece), Hannover Rueckverischerung (Germany)

 

Today we covered our short position in European Financials (EUFN) in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio for a 15.7% gain (see levels chart below).

 

European Bank Swaps Shake - 1. josh

 

European Bank Swaps Shake - 2. josh

 

Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst


Change in FL/FINL Estimates Reflect Lackluster July

 

Weekly footwear data registered a third consecutive decline last week confirming that sales have indeed turned sharply lower through the back half of July. Not surprisingly, FL and FINL are among the names that trade most heavily on these numbers. We are adjusting our estimates based on the latest data, but remain well above Street estimates for FL while FINL is more in-line. With that in mind there are several key factors to consider:

  1. Many investors still trade on these numbers with similar conviction to the prior sample set (before Jan ’11) when only athletic specialty channel sales were reported. With department stores and national shoe chains now included in the weekly data, the variability factor has increased substantially tracking 4%-6% below athletic specialty channel sales.
  2. In terms of sizing July sales, it represents roughly 7% of annual dollars – the same as May both of which are less significant than June, which was up 12.3% (see chart below).  
  3. Based on monthly data where the athletic specialty channel is broken out, sales were up 9.6% through the first two months of FL’s Q2. With weekly sales coming in down -2% in July and assuming at least a 4% adjustment, we assume July came in up +2%. This suggests comps are tracking at 7.5% in Q2. With FL coming in at least 200bps above our proprietary blended rate in each of the last three quarters, we have adjusted comps to +9.5% for the quarter with EPS shaking out at $0.17 for Q2 and $1.68 for the year well aboveconsensus at $0.12 and $1.57 respectively.
  4. Taking a similar look at FINL, which closes its books at the end of August and has a tighter performance range around the blended rate, we have adjusted comps to +8.5% for the quarter with EPS shaking out at $0.40 for Q2 and $1.56 for the year essentially in-line with consensus at $0.39 and $1.56 respectively. Keep in mind, that August is the second largest month of the year from a dollar perspective aside from December and will be key to locking in the quarter for FINL.
  5. Importantly, July monthly numbers will be out next Monday ahead of FL’s earnings release Thursday afternoon providing further clarity to our adjustment to weekly figures. We’ll update our view if necessary as soon as we have those numbers.
  6. Lastly in looking at footwear trends over the last few weeks, sales declines have come from lower unit volume depsite relatively stable ASP trends +/- 1%. This suggests that we could see an increase in promotional acitivity during the critical BTS selling season as retailers look to drive top-line results.

 

 Change in FL/FINL Estimates Reflect Lackluster July  - FW App Agg Table 8 9 11

 

 Change in FL/FINL Estimates Reflect Lackluster July  - Fw App BrandTable 8 11 11

 

 Change in FL/FINL Estimates Reflect Lackluster July  - FW App FW Mkt Sh 8 9 11

 

 Change in FL/FINL Estimates Reflect Lackluster July  - FW App App 1Yr 8 9 11

 

 Change in FL/FINL Estimates Reflect Lackluster July  - FW App App 2Yr 8 9 11

 

 Change in FL/FINL Estimates Reflect Lackluster July  - FW FL Comp 8 11

 

 Change in FL/FINL Estimates Reflect Lackluster July  - FW FINL Comp 8 11

 

 Change in FL/FINL Estimates Reflect Lackluster July  - FW Mo as Pert of Annual Revs 8 11

 

 Change in FL/FINL Estimates Reflect Lackluster July  - FW Mo Channel 7 11

 

 

Casey Flavin

Director


IHG YOUTUBE

In preparation for IHG's Q2 earnings release tomorrow, we’ve put together the pertinent forward looking commentary from IHG’s Q1 earnings call and subsequent conferences/releases.

 

 

Youtube from Q1 Conference Call

  • “RevPAR trends continued into April with global RevPAR growth of 6.1% excluding Japan, Egypt and Bahrain, 4.9% growth on a reported basis. U.S. RevPAR grew 7.2% and China RevPAR grew 14.6%.”
    • “On EMEA, we were up 1.9% excluding Bahrain and Egypt. And actually if you exclude Lebanon where there are other issues, we were up 3.1% in EMEA. And then in Asia-Pacific, the 5.3% is 12.8% excluding Japan, and that includes 14.6% in China”
  • “Looking further forward, our reported RevPAR figures were clearly be impacted to some extent by Japan and the Middle East, particularly in 2Q. April RevPAR in Japan was down 26%. Moving through the year, we’ll also face progressively tougher comparatives, particularly for our Shanghai hotels due to the world expo last year.”
  • “Overall, booking pace looks good with increases in both demand and rate. Future travel intentions data collected from guests in our hotels is positive, and specifically as we head into the key summer leisure season, leisure travel intentions are also up. We’ve not seen any impact from the rise in the oil price although clearly this remains a risk if the price spikes further.”
  • “We’ve estimated the full year impact of the events in the Middle East and Japan at between $15million and $20 million, and at this stage we expect much of this would be offset by positives elsewhere. The situation in each market is however clearly fluid and our visibility is limited with extremely short-term booking activity. Our estimates are based on no return to normality until at least the fourth quarter of this year.”
  • [Japan] “The cancellation activity has ceased and booking pace is starting to show a gradual pickup.”
  • “In the Middle East, the key impacted markets are Egypt and Bahrain, and although we’re starting to see some recovery in the outskirts of Cairo and the Red Sea resorts, we do not expect any return to normality until there is stability in government.”
  • [Regional/central costs] “For the full year, we still expect these cost to be between $250 million and $260 million at constant currency.”
  • “Looking now at the pipeline. Financing for new hotel construction remains constrained in some of our biggest markets, and we don’t anticipate much change in the short-term.”
  • “We have the industry leading pipeline, with 18% of the active global pipeline according to Smith Travel and our nearest competitor has just 13% and that pipeline is high quality. Around 70,000 rooms, close to 40%, are under construction. In Greater China, some 70% of the projects are under construction, and across EMEA, this figure is around 60%. It drops to around 20% in the Americas, where the figure is typically lower due to the shorter time from signing to opening for midscale hotels.”
  • “We remain confident with our 3 to 5% net system growth guidance from next year into the medium term as the level of removals revert to more historic norms.”
  • “Net debt at the end of March stands at $846 million. This is around $100 million up on year-end, due to seasonal working capital movements which we expect to reverse for the full year.”
  • “We’ve got around 20 hotels in Shanghai, out of 150 open and obviously more opening this year. So, we’ll have some impact but we’re, not only we’re seeing RevPAR growth but we also adding hotels in China, so the momentum is pretty strong there.”
  • “As far as the Barclay is concerned, I think historically we’ve always talked about the six to nine months for a disposal of a major asset. We aren’t a forced seller with that asset, so the important thing for us is to find the right buyer who is going to support that hotel, support the brand and invest in it, I think we said before, we’re going to require at least $100 million refurbishment program of that hotel. And if you play it right you can also get other hotels or built a good new relationship. So there is a lot of good interest in that hotel.”
  • “We’re actually seeing rate growth in the corporate negotiated area. At inflation or slightly above inflation. But what we’ve done is push quite hard for market share growth, which is obviously one thing you have to look at and with our move to dynamic pricing and real focus on bigger accounts, we’re seeing some quite significant share gains.”
  • “Booking windows are short…the momentum looks okay for leisure. We’ll certainly start feeling that much more in June, July as we get to that.”
  • “But as you say, that is new supply (in New York) and with our share of that particularly with the InterContinental in Times Square that’s been performing really well. Honestly for a brand owner with good product in the market, new supply is obviously a good thing for us if we get our share of it. And we’ve certainly been seeing that in New York.”
  • [FY2011 Capex] “$100 million to $200 million and it’s a broad range. But because most of this is working with third-party owners we are not dictating the timing, then it’s hard to be very specific about the amount. And then on top of that we’ll have about a $150 million of maintenance capital this year, which is slightly ahead of depreciation. I think I’ve always said that depreciation should broadly equal maintenance and over the last couple of years for obvious reasons we were significantly below depreciation, so a little bit of catch up this year. Quite a lot in the technology area which is obviously important for us.”

Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.61%
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