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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - August 8, 2011

Today’s market moves are not about USA’s credit default risk (US Treasuries are pushing toward all-time highs this morn). It’s all about analytical incompetence on Growth Slowing and where “risk” is priced. 

There is no market in the world that is bullish on either the Hedgeye TRADE or TREND duration other than Venezuela; Europig bond buying only creates short-term short covering in Italy/Spain; the intermediate to long-term result of Big Government Intervention looks more like Greece (down 40% now since February!).

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 54 points or -2.87% downside to 1165 and 1.64% upside to 1219.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 88

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -1503 (+1315)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 2254.25 (+23.77%)
  • VIX:  32.00 +1.07% YTD PERFORMANCE: +80.28%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.59 from 2.24 (+15.74%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

TREASURIES – 2s and 10s getting bid up to new highs as yields capitulate to 0.25% and 2.49%, respectively. If you had the USA sovereign “credit risk” trade on, you have to cover your shorts; PIMCO needs to be buying back those Treasuries too.

 

  • TED SPREAD: 26.65
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01% -0.01%
  • 10-Year: 2.58 from 2.47    
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.30 from 2.20

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 11 a.m.: Export inspections, corn, soybeans, wheat
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $29b 3-mo., $27b 6-mo. bills
  • 4 p.m.: Crop conditions

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • G-7 finance ministers and central bank governors to “take all necessary measures to support financial stability and growth,’’ they pledge in a statement today
  • S&P’s downgrade of U.S. credit rating leaves France as the AAA country most likely to lose its top grade, some investors and economists say
  • S&P holds 8:45 a.m. conference call to discuss U.S. downgrade
  • Best Buy (BBY) may slide if management can’t figure ways to retake market share from online competitors, Barron’s said

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

COMMODITIES – nothing new here; we signaled this last week, but it’s critical to remind ourselves that both TREND and TAIL lines for oil and copper have snapped. We call this Deflating The Inflation – in the end, good for global consumers.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Commodity Currencies a Refuge as Intervention Upends Havens
  • Central Bankers Confront Decision on Which Risk Scares Them Most
  • Investors Cut Bullish Commodity Bets in ‘Panic’ on Economy
  • Tokyo Rice Halted After First Futures Trading Since 1939
  • Oil Falls to Trade Near Eight-Month Low as S&P Cuts U.S. Rating
  • Gold Tops $1,700 for First Time as U.S. Rating Cut Spurs Demand
  • Rio, Mitsubishi Bid A$1.49 Billion for Rest of Coal & Allied
  • Gold Futures Surge to Record $1,697.70 on Haven Demand
  • Goldman Raises Gold Forecasts, Keeps Long Recommendation
  • Copper, Zinc Fall as S&P Cuts U.S. Credit Rating; Aluminum Gains
  • Commodities Drop as U.S. Credit-Rating Cut May Worsen Slowdown
  • China Aluminum Prices May Gain on Power Cuts, Chinalco Says
  • Gold May Extend Advance to Record $1,750: Technical Analysis
  • Wheat Falls for Fourth Day as U.S. Rating Cut ‘Spooks’ Markets
  • Commodity-Tied Government Bond Yields Surging: Argentina Credit
  • Copper in London Gains 0.4%, Reversing Decline to Six-Week Low
  • Rio Says Higher Labor Costs, Aussie Dollar Curb Expansion Plans
  • Palm Oil Drops as Commodities Decline on U.S. Rating Downgrade

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • EUROPE: Greece is gone, fyi (market down another 2.6% today; down -40% since FEB); that’s how the storytelling of central planners ends
  • Bank of France Jul business sentiment indicator, industry 98 vs prio 99, services 98 vs prior 99
  • Bank of France estimates Q3 GDP to grow +0.2% (first estimate)
  • Eurozone Aug Sentix (13.5) vs consensus +1.9, prior +5.3

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

ASIAN MARKETS

  • ASIA: could have been much worse; down 1-4% across board with markets like India rallying intraday, Koreans panicked at the bottom, so down most
  • Japan June current account surplus ¥526.9B vs cons ¥678.3B. June trade balance +¥131.5B, (82.7%) y/y.

 THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

Howard Penney

Managing Director