The “Trade” in the US market still looks as good as that for hopeful NY Jets fans this morning, after acquiring Brett Favre. The problem, of course, is that these are short term “Trades”. Favre is 38 years old, the bull market is 25 years old - we are closer to the end of their respective runs than new beginnings.
Favre is one of my favorite athletes. He’s real and he leaves it all on the field every day. The problem is that (for an NFL player) he is old. Not as old as John McCain, but old. The latest market “Trade” higher is more of the same old nonsense. Find a bullish narrative, and ride it. “Drill, drill, drill” – bring oil prices down, and ride John McCain and his clean-coal fueled All-American Harley into the US election. He’ll salute the troops, flip the International community the bird, and save our stock market from Obama ‘s proposed socialist salvation.
Didn’t you hear? Obama is apparently down and out like Favre used to be when he was addicted to pain killers – ask Larry Kudlow, who is turning into the other side of the Lou Dobbs trade. “Drill, drill, drill – Go Goldilocks! Go Johnny Mac!”
The political leadership in this country, and the partisan media who spin it, is plain scary. Lou Dobbs on the Left, Larry Kudlow on the Right. They are both metaphors that reflect more of the same – a hurried sound bite culture that hears, but rarely listens. Charge the blackberries, forget the books. It’s manic, and it transcends how Americans have been trained to “invest”.
The S&P 500’s intraday high yesterday was 1291. The high end of my trading range was 1292 – close enough. As the math changes, I do. For this morning’s open, the high end of my trading range moves to 1299. If we are blessed with that number, I’ll happily sell into it, and go to 95% cash.
I can be bearish on the US stock market’s “Trend”, but still be bullish on some of our fundamental long ideas. Yesterday, Brian McGough nailed this Ralph Lauren (RL) long call. The day prior it was Howard Penney getting Brinker (EAT) right; and the day before that Todd Jordan defied the shorts with the call to own Leapfrog (LF). There are no rules stating that “Macro Guys” can’t pick stocks. This is what makes this game great.
Currently, the best macro short call that I have been pressing short is Japan. I’m short Japan via the EWJ (etf) and names like Toyota (TM), which printed a down -28% year over year net income report in Asia overnight. In the face of a bullish “Trade” here in the US, the Nikkei got smacked again for another -1% down day, and the Japanese Yen moved to fresh intermediate term lows of 109.44. Stagflation is a macroeconomic circumstance that you want to be short.
In the face of the world’s largest car maker imploding their bottom line, the world’s largest insurer, AIG, is trading down -8% pre-open, after printing a $5.4B loss. Taiwan’s exports for the month of July slowed to, get this, 8% year over year, versus +21% in June! No, that’s not good for the “it’s global this time” Asian growth story. The Taiwanese dollar chart rivals that of the Japanese Yen, having its biggest down day in 3 months, extending its streak of daily losses to eight.
It is getting more global out there, and Brett Favre greyer. The only mania that will be left after all these fundamental realities are absorbed may very well be manic depression. Be careful out there at the high end of my trading range.
Good luck,
KM
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