TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - August 3, 2011
This morning the USD breaking out above its intermediate-term TREND line; the most important global macro factor affecting everything that ticks right now. As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 61 points or -1.61% downside to 1240 and 3.23% upside to 1301.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +445 (+2195)
- VOLUME: NYSE 1352.06 (+7.98%)
- VIX: 23.28 -5.69% YTD PERFORMANCE: +31.72%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.52 from 2.10 (-27.82%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 25.81
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.02% -0.04%
- 10-Year: 2.64 from 2.66
- YIELD CURVE: 2.31 from 2.33
MACRO DATA POINTS:
- 8:30 a.m.: Jobless Claims, est. 405k, prior 398k
- 8:30 a.m.: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, est. (-47.5), prior (-46.8)
- 10 a.m.: Freddie Mac weekly mortgage data
- 10:30 a.m.: EIA natural gas
- 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $20b 10-day cash-mgmt bills
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Japan sold yen to intervene in currency markets, acting unilaterally, Finance Minister Noda said
- Health Management Associates disclosed late yesterday had received subpoenas from Dept. of Health and Human Services: WSJ
- European Commission must decide by today whether to open in- depth investigation of ramifications from Deutsche Boerse’s buyout of NYSE Euronext
- Kraft Foods announces intent to create two independent publicly traded companies
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION
COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:
- Rio Tinto First-Half Profit Trails Estimates as Costs Increase
- Shipping Stuck in Recession on Expanding Glut: Chart of the Day
- Macarthur Lures Bidders as Peabody Rouses China: Real M&A
- Commodities to Rally, Buy Gold, JPMorgan Tells Investors
- Natural Gas Spread at 11-Year Low on Record Heat: Energy Markets
- Cargill Turkey Salmonella Link Spurs Second-Biggest U.S. Recall
- Newcrest Says 10 Die in Helicopter Crash in Indonesia
- Oil Trades Near 5-Week Low as Economy Concern Counters Stimulus
- Gold Near Record as Declining Currencies Increase Haven Demand
- Copper Premiums in China Drop to Four-Month Low on Demand
- Malaysia Export Growth Accelerates as Commodities Shipments Gain
- Coleman’s Merchant Commodity Fund Said to Decline 4.9% in July
- Copper Gains From Three-Week Low as BHP Strike Caps Second Wee
- Rogers May Boost Agriculture Investment on Food Shortages
- Rio warns on commodities outlook
- Escondida Workers to Weigh Offer at Strike-Hit Chilean Mine
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
- EUROPE: Italy is crashing, FYI (down -28% since FEB) and Russia (the only tape that was not broken) finally breaks Hedgeye TREND line support
ASIAN MARKETS
- ASIA: ex-China (up +23bps overnight), Asian equity markets flashing negative divergences vs yesterdays hopeful US equity close; KOSPI breaks hard
MIDDLE EAST
Howard Penney
Managing Director