Risk Ranger: SP500 Levels, Refreshed

POSITION: no position SPY; short XLF

I am getting a lot of questions about levels here. To be clear, the 200-day Moving Monkey is not a risk management line. It’s a one-factor (point and click simple moving average) where we can all observe proactively predictable behavior.

Across our risk management durations (TRADE/TREND/TAIL), here are the lines that matter: 

  1. Long-term TAIL of resistance = 1377
  2. Intermediate-term TREND resistance = 1319
  3. Immediate-term TRADE range = 1 

Big Government Intervention isn’t the economic or market catalyst it’s all cracked up to be. All it does is shorten economic cycles and amplify market volatility. We remain the bears on US GDP Growth Slowing and the Financials (XLF).


Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

Risk Ranger: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - SPX