Industry: Our Aggregate Store Visits dataset saw a continued slight acceleration in this week’s update, now flat YY, with the 5Wk avg continuing to improve for the 8th consecutive week. Both the 2 and 3Yr trends held steady this week, implying an underlying acceleration in the visits setup. Compares continue to ease through mid-May with consumer health improving on the margin. We expect visits to head positive from here, especially if tax refunds continue to improve. Redbook Retail Comp Sales are reflecting improving retail visits over the past few weeks and given easing compares moving forward we would expect this trend to remain as well. Overall improving retail setup, which is reflected in stocks across the space. We continue to get more bullish retail but believe that there are still both idiosyncratic shorts and longs in the space that we can capitalize on.
- Subsectors:
- Accelerations: Clothing, Recreational & Sporting Goods, Superstores, Department Stores, Electronic Stores, Discount & Dollar Stores, Pet Stores & Services, Shopping Centers
- Decelerations: Beauty & Spa, Home Improvement, Car Shops & Services, Hobbies, Gifts, & Crafts
Companies: Numbers below = YoY Rate of Change from week to week
- Notable Accelerations: Casual Male XL (DXLG) +23%, Kohl’s (KSS) +17%, Dillard’s (DDS) +11%, Big Lots (BIG) +10%, Family Dollar (DLTR) +10%
- Notable Decelerations: MarineMax (HZO) -40%, Tiffany & Co. (LVMH) –13%, Advance Auto Parts (AAP) -11%, Lowe’s (LOW) -9%, Monro Auto Service & Tire Center (MNRO) -9%, Anthropologie (URBN) -9%
Company Callouts:
- Department Store Traffic Improving (JWN—Best Idea Short | M | DDS | KSS—Short Bias). Visits across the leading department store banners in the US have seen a material accelerating trend since late 2023. We think that this is in estimates/guidance/and the stocks, but wouldn't be surprised to see the group grind higher as the data comes in. We'd be pressing JWN – particularly given that we don't think the rumored buyout will happen. Ditto for Macy's, though we don't have a call on that one right now. KSS might the most interesting short, given that outside of Sephora the company continues to lose share at an aggressive rate – our work suggests that the Sephora shopper simply is not converting to actually buying something in the Kohl's store.
Chart List:
- Industry
- Companies
Source: Placer.ai
