“Success is not spelled g-e-n-i-u-s.”
-Bill Walsh
Does your portfolio adapt and evolve to ever-changing growth and inflation conditions? How about to shorter-term risk management signals? Ours obviously does. The Game is always transitioning dynamically.
Today’s quote comes from one of the best #behavorial books I’ve ever read: The Score Takes Care Of Itself.
Like market timing, your behavior matters, big time. As Walsh says, “there are many aspects of professional football that directly correspond to the subject of leadership in business.” Here are 3 good summary points Walsh made on that:
- “Flying by the seat of your pants precedes crashing by the seat of your pants.”
- “When you prepare for everything, you’re ready for everything.”
- “All personnel must recognize that your team is adaptive and dynamic in facing unstable weather.”
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
Got a #process for “unstable weather” (i.e. a country’s economy being in either #Quad3 or #Quad4 where real GROWTH is slowing either way)? A: Yep. I don’t call what we do “All Weather” (Dalio did). I have my own evolving #process.
And, the best part, is that it goes both ways.
AFTER the instability, crashes, and storms comes stability. And I’m not talking about stability in your marriage or political feelings. I’m talking pure ROC. That’s right. The ROC (rate of change) in volatility becomes less unstable…
Then, as volatility starts to stabilize, the prices of those Asset Allocations breakout to the upside.
AFTER almost 8 STRAIGHT QUARTERS of Global #Quad3 and #Quad4, our Nowcasts are “seeing” Global #Quad2. This isn’t “new” news to power-users of the Full Investing Cycle #process today, but repetition perpetuates discipline.
We’ll review all of our country GIP (Growth, Inflation, Policy) Models on tomorrow’s Q2 Macro Themes Call. Ping if you’d like LIVE access to what many Institutional Investors call “the best content in The Game.”
Here’s the summary of what’s no longer a pending Cycle Storm:
- The last Global #Quad2 Cycle Peak was in Q4 of 2021
- Then we had almost 8 straight quarters of Global Slowing that ended in Q4 of 2022
- Now certain countries have already entered #Quad1 or #Quad2 or markets are signaling they will
No, this isn’t a “call” on the Old Wall Media’s beloved SPY Monkey or the Dow, in points! Lol. Instead, this is what you pay for. The only dynamic Go Anywhere Global Macro Model that adapts your Core Asset Allocations in real-time.
What major countries (that we’re long) have already entered #Quad1 or #Quad2?
- India (INDA)
- Germany (EWG)
- South Korea (EWY)
What major countries and/or regions (that we’re long) are signaling they enter #Quad1 or #Quad2 by Q2 of 2024?
- USA (We’re still Long: SPMO, IAK, KBWP, PINK, XLG, PJP, ITB, AMLP, IPO, IWO, IBB)
- China (FXI)
- Emerging Markets ex-China (KEMX, KSA, EWM, EPHE)
Yep, that’s a lot. And you know what? Doing a lot of real work with a real big team is the job. I’d much prefer to “prepare for everything” alongside Bill Walsh and his team than try to prepare to be “ready for everything” playing solo against him!
I just gave you 19 Core Asset Allocations that my Fam is Long (see Portfolio Solutions product). Yesterday, I gave you others that are run-it-right-up-the-middle Core Long Inflation plays like BDRY (buy more of that today, btw).
And, yes, I get it. My competition and my haters have one obvious thing in common – they call me “cocky” and “full of” whatever. And you know what? I absolutely love that. The NFL’s geniuses called Walsh’s West Coast Offense a “gimmick.”
I’ve been grinding alongside the hardest-working team in The League since 4:30AM. And we did it, as a team, until 9:30PM last night getting ready for another Game Day today. We’ll be ready for tomorrow’s Q2 Macro Themes day too.
We’re not geniuses. Some of the Old Wall people we play against think they are. We don’t play for them – we play for you.
Immediate-term Risk Range™ Signal with @Hedgeye TREND signal in brackets
UST 10yr Yield 4.10-4.42% (bullish)
UST 2yr Yield 4.48-4.80% (bullish)
High Yield (HYG) 77.00-77.77 (bullish)
SPX 5100-5213 (bullish)
NASDAQ 15,951-16,363 (bullish)
RUT 2004-2075 (bearish)
Tech (XLK) 204-212 (bullish)
Insurance (IAK) 111.77-115.90 (bullish)
S&P Momentum (SPMO) 77.64-80.59 (bullish)
Healthcare (PINK) 29.60-30.37 (bullish)
Shanghai Comp 3011-3096 (bullish)
BSE Sensex (India) 71,807-74,101 (bullish)
DAX 17,717-18,089 (bullish)
VIX 13.12-15.25 (bearish)
USD 102.69-104.32 (bullish)
GBP/USD 1.265-1.285 (bullish)
Oil (WTI) 78.88-83.69 (bullish)
Nat Gas 1.59-1.91 (bearish)
Copper 3.93-4.20 (bullish)
MSFT 409-429 (bullish)
AAPL 168-178 (bearish)
NVDA 847-937 (bullish)
Bitcoin 60,502-75,356 (bullish)
Best of luck out there today,
KM
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
