Industry: Aggregate Visits accelerate from -3.2% to -0.9% with the 5Wk avg improving continuing to improve, now accelerating for 6 weeks in a row with continued easing compares. There was also an acceleration on the 2Yr, deceleration on the 3Yr given big negative move 3 years ago. Redbook Retail Comp Sales trend looking very bearish with 5-week average slowing significantly from Jan peak on easing compares. Traffic vs Sales datapoints continue to send conflicting signals. Cumulative tax refunds continue to improve, though, with the total amount refunded now up 5% YY, but weekly amount refunded slowing from +24% last week to +18% in this week’s update. If tax refunds are freeing up excess spending for consumers, that surely is not reflected in the Redbook data. Earnings season is nearing its end, and it seems like 80% + of companies guided down 1Q, but the market hardly cared. We are still looking for idiosyncratic longs and shorts across retail, and are getting incrementally bullish after being square in the bear camp for 2-years..
- Notable Industry Callouts: Accelerations in every subsector except Pet Stores & Services
Recent Black Books & Calls:
- Shein | Impact on the Global Apparel Industry
- Retailer Credit Late Fee Fallout
- BYON Webcast with Marcus Lemonis & Marc Cohodes
- CVNA | Best Idea Short
- DECK | Best Idea Short
- Amer Sports (AS) | Pre-IPO Black Book | Best Idea Short
- RH | Best Idea Long
Newly Added Stores: Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Aaron’s (AAN), Golftec, 2nd Ave Thrift Stores (SVV), Carter’s & OshKosh B’gosh (CRI), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Arc’teryx Sample
Companies: Numbers below = YoY Rate of Change from week to week
- Notable Accelerations: MarineMax +20%, Old Navy +12%, Big 5 Sporting Goods +12%
- Notable Decelerations: Lovesac -19%, Kohl’s -14%, Bloomingdale’s Outlet -12%, New Balance -12%
Earnings Previews:
- Lululemon Athletica (LULU): Last Q Sales: +18.7%; this Q Consensus: +15.3% | Trailing 13Wk Last Q Visits: +13.6%; Trailing 13Wk This Q Visits: +4.4%
- Signet Jewelers (SIG—Short Bias): Last Q Sales: -12.1%; this Q Consensus: -4.6% | Trailing 13Wk Last Q Visits: Kay -5.9%, Jared -12.5%; Trailing 13Wk This Q Visits: Kay -9.1%, Jared -12.5%
- H&M (HNNMY—Best Idea Short): Last Q Sales: +0.3%; this Q Consensus: -3% | Trailing 13Wk Last Q Visits: -11.2%; Trailing 13Wk This Q Visits: -12.5%
- Destination XL Group (DXLG—Best Idea Long): Last Q Sales: +7.8%; this Q Consensus: -1.7% | Trailing 13Wk Last Q Visits: DXL -6%, Casual Male -10.3%; Trailing 13Wk This Q Visits: DXL -5.2%, Casual Male -26.1%
- Five Below (FIVE): Last Q Sales: +14.2%; this Q Consensus: +20.2% | Trailing 13Wk Last Q Visits: +16.9%; Trailing 13Wk This Q Visits: +14.6%
- Academy Sports & Outdoors (ASO): Last Q Sales: -6.4%; this Q Consensus: +2.5% | Trailing 13Wk Last Q Visits: -14.7%; Trailing 13Wk This Q Visits: -12.7%
Chart List
- Industry
- Companies
Source: Placer.ai
