“Success doesn’t care which road you take to get to its doorstep.”
-Bill Walsh
I’m starting to really annoy the Old Wall Perma Bulls who want/need me to be a Perma Bear. They just can’t stand how much money you and I are making on the Long Side of a Go Anywhere Portfolio right now!
I triggered one of the guys from the Snark-Journo crowd (let’s just call him Joey Journo) yesterday when I tweeted that we’re still Long Housing (ITB) as it was making a new all-time high.
All-time, as I like to say, is a long time. I enjoyed seeing that in my accounts for The Fam and all, but this clown decides “oh but this is what you tweeted on August 4th, 2023.” From that date, Housing (ITB) crashed -20% by October of 2023.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
Since none of these people called either the Crash of 2008 or 2022 (never mind both), it’s hard for them to accept that someone like me can “make the turn” on The Cycle and eventually go bullish on things they’d never consider.
I went bullish on US stocks in April of 2009. I went bullish on India’s Stock Market in June of 2023. I went bullish on Bitcoin & Crypto in October 2023. I went bullish on US Equity Momentum (SPMO) in November of 2023. What if I went bullish on their 1-dimensional “market” allocation in July of 2023?
- US Equity Momentum (SPMO) was still in a -17.5% Drawdown from its 2021 Cycle Peak by OCT 2023
- Our #1 US Equity Index Short at the time (Russell 2000) had another -18.2% Drawdown from JUL-OCT 2023
Are we supposed to just look at the “YTD” return and pretend these epic US Stock Market Crashes & Drawdowns didn’t happen? Obviously if you chased either the NOV 2021 Cycle High and/or the JUL 2023 Lower-Cycle High, you got smoked.
And that’s really the problem here. These bozos on Old Wall TV don’t run money. They don’t get smoked.
They generally don’t have a Global Macro Economic Cycle and/or Cross Asset Class perspective either. An Old Wall Journo on CNBC is more likely to define “what the market is doing” in Dow points than anything else.
Fortunately, unlike them, history has #timestamps.
They might want/need to tell you there “was no recession.” But there was. It was called a Global Industrial, Manufacturing, & Profit Recession. Big Countries like China even hit #Quad4 Deflation at one point! Europe had a reported recession too.
*on “Profit Recession”, apologies, I just made a mistake – see our Chart of The Day (slide 44) – it was a depression!
Did Joey Journo or Steve Liesman … or any of these CNBC Perma Market Nailers… call any components of those depressions and/or recessions never mind all of them? How about the breakout to 9% headline inflation or the Bear Market in Bonds?
A: crickets
But oh they can tweet. Yep, and I take all receipts.
Back to what really matters most – i.e. preserving and protecting YOUR hard-earned capital (from these crashes and drawdowns) so that you can COMPOUND returns like we are right now to new all-time highs in our Net Wealth…
Here are our #timestamps from our new Portfolio Solutions product on some good and differentiated Asset Allocations:
- Global Shipping (BDRY) = =+45% since we added it in JAN of 2024
- Bitcoin (IBIT) = +29% since we added it back to the Portfolio in FEB of 2024
- US Equity Momentum (SPMO) = +28% since we added it in NOV 2023
- US Insurance Stocks (IAK) = +24% since we added it in SEP 2023
- India (INDA) = +23% since we added it in JUN of 2023
Is the establishment and/or their media going to market or pump our Full Investing Cycle #process? A: never. But it’s all there for all to see. And we won’t let them hide from the timestamped truth.
Immediate-term Risk Range™ Signal with @Hedgeye TREND signal in brackets
UST 10yr Yield 4.04-4.37% (bearish)
UST 2yr Yield 4.45-4.74% (bullish)
SPX 5040-5175 (bullish)
NASDAQ 15,835-16,445 (bullish)
RUT 2025-2099 (bullish)
Tech (XLK) 203-213 (bullish)
Insurance (IAK) 110.11-112.99 (bullish)
S&P Momentum (SPMO) 75.55-80.88 (bullish)
Healthcare (PINK) 29.54-30.64 (bullish)
Shanghai Comp 2 (bullish)
Nikkei 38,813-40,505 (bullish)
BSE Sensex (India) 72,700-74,668 (bullish)
DAX 17,424-17,898 (bullish)
VIX 12.73-15.42 (neutral)
USD 102.52-104.09 (bearish)
Oil (WTI) 77.03-80.16 (bullish)
Nat Gas 1.71-2.01 (bearish)
Gold 2070-2197 (bullish)
Copper 3.84-3.99 (bullish)
Uranium (URA) 26.78-30.32 (bullish)
MSFT 399-419 (bullish)
AAPL 165-178 (bearish)
AMZN 171-180 (bullish)
META 476-516 (bullish)
TSLA 170-195 (bearish)
NVDA 812-949 (bullish)
Bitcoin 59,695-69,694 (bullish)
Best of luck out there today,
KM
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
