Industry: This week, Aggregate Store Visits slightly decelerated with the 5Wk Avg slightly improving from -3.8% to -3.6%, now 5 weeks in a row of accelerations. 2Yr and 3Yr Avgs both decelerated, showing that underlying visits decelerated on easier compares. Overall, visits remain in an improving trend, with some easier compares in the coming months. As we called out last week, tax refunds continue to accelerate YY after a very negative start due to an extra refund week last year. This week, the average amount refunded continued to accelerate from +2% to +4% YY, hitting $3,213. Increasing YY tax refunds could have a material impact on consumer spending (and traffic) as it frees up more discretionary spending power.
- Notable Industry Callouts: Decelerations in every subcategory except Recreational & Sporting Goods, Superstores, and Electronics Stores. Discount and Dollar Stores was flat. As tax refunds increase, and consumers feel like they have more spending power, we could see big accelerations across more discretionary categories, like Electronics, which have even easier compares in the coming months.
Companies: Numbers below = YoY Rate of Change from week to week
- Notable Accelerations: Old Navy +20%, New Balance +13%, Arhaus +10%
- Notable Decelerations: Ugg Outlet -17%, Athleta -17%, Tiffany & Co. -16%, Warby Parker -13%, ASICS Outlet -11%, Sephora -11%, Anthropologie -10%, Urban Outfitters -10%
Newly Added Stores: Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Aaron’s (AAN), Golftec, 2nd Ave Thrift Stores (SVV), Carter’s & OshKosh B’gosh (CRI), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)
Earnings Look Ahead: Many of the below companies have 53rd week help
- Ulta Beauty (ULTA—Best Idea Short). Last Q Sales: +6.4%; this Q Consensus: +9.3% | Trailing 13Wk Last Q Visits: +8%; Trailing 13Wk This Q Visits: +4.7%
- `Kohl’s (KSS). Last Q Sales: -5.2%; this Q Consensus: +0.5% | Trailing 13Wk Last Q Visits: -12.6%; Trailing 13Wk This Q Visits: -8.7%
- Dollar General (DG). Last Q Sales: +2.4%; this Q Consensus: -4.3% | Trailing 13Wk Last Q Visits: -1.1%; Trailing 13Wk This Q Visits: -0.3%
- Dollar Tree (DLTR). Last Q Sales: +5.4%; this Q Consensus: +12.3% | Trailing 13Wk Last Q Visits: Dollar Tree +4.7%, Family Dollar -6.9%; Trailing 13Wk This Q Visits: Dollar Tree +4.0%, Family Dollar -9.6%
- Petco (WOOF). Last Q Sales: -0.5%; this Q Consensus: +3.3% | Trailing 13Wk Last Q Visits: -6.6%; Trailing 13Wk This Q Visits: -5.6%
- Zumiez (ZUMZ). Last Q Sales: -8.9%; this Q Consensus: -1.5% | Trailing 13Wk Last Q Visits: -4.9%; Trailing 13Wk This Q Visits: +4.9%
Chart List:
- Industry
- Company
Source: Placer.ai
