• [WEBCAST] Raoul Pal & Neil Howe: A Sobering U.S. Economic Reality Check

    Prepare your portfolio for “big picture” paradigm shifts with Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal and Demography analyst Neil Howe.

Smith Travel released their forecasts for the hotel industry today. For 2009, they are projecting a RevPAR decline of 2.5% but an ADR INCREASE of 1%. It looks like the fudge variable in that regression model of theirs may have been fudged a bit too much. It’s not simply a matter of hotel companies getting better at holding rate. At some level of demand, the yield and profit models will dictate lower ADRs. We believe that level will be reached next year. HOT’s guidance of down 5% RevPAR may even turn out to be aggressive.