• It's Here!

    Etf Pro

    Get the big financial market moves right, bullish or bearish with Hedgeye’s ETF Pro.

  • It's Here

    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

Smith Travel released their forecasts for the hotel industry today. For 2009, they are projecting a RevPAR decline of 2.5% but an ADR INCREASE of 1%. It looks like the fudge variable in that regression model of theirs may have been fudged a bit too much. It’s not simply a matter of hotel companies getting better at holding rate. At some level of demand, the yield and profit models will dictate lower ADRs. We believe that level will be reached next year. HOT’s guidance of down 5% RevPAR may even turn out to be aggressive.