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JOBLESS CLAIMS SIDEWINDING REMAINS AN XLF OVERHANG

Initial Claims Rise 10k WoW (13k After Revisions)

Initial unemployment claims came in at 418k last week, up from 408k the prior week (revised from 405k).  1.75k of the claims were attributable to the Minnesota government shutdown.  This is down from the prior week, when 11.5k of the claims arose from Minnesota government employees.  On a rolling basis, initial jobless claims fell 3k week over week to 421k.

 

We've stated many times that our analysis shows rolling claims must reach a level of 375-400k on a sustained basis for any improvement in the unemployment rate to occur. We've also noted the relationship between Quantitative Easing and jobless claims, pointing out the fact that when QE is in effect it tends to lower claims and vice versa. Given that QE ended 3 weeks ago, we're not surprised to see rolling claims bounce along sideways. This is also an interesting takeaway for the broader market and the XLF as we also show below the relationship between those two benchmarks and jobless claims. 

 

While there are many systemic risks facing the market right now from Europe to the Debt Ceiling to the Housing market, we come back to jobless claims time and again as the ultimate best read on what matters most for lenders. If jobless claims aren't improving this is a major overhang for the space, and when you add in weak home prices it paints an especially challenging picture for the group.

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS SIDEWINDING REMAINS AN XLF OVERHANG   - rolling

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS SIDEWINDING REMAINS AN XLF OVERHANG   - raw

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS SIDEWINDING REMAINS AN XLF OVERHANG   - s p

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS SIDEWINDING REMAINS AN XLF OVERHANG   - XLF

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS SIDEWINDING REMAINS AN XLF OVERHANG   - fed

 

2-10 Spread Close to Flat WoW

The 2-10 spread, which we track as to gauge NIM pressure, was 1 bps wider WoW at 255 bps.  The spread is currently running 4 bps tighter than 2Q.  

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS SIDEWINDING REMAINS AN XLF OVERHANG   - spreads

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS SIDEWINDING REMAINS AN XLF OVERHANG   - spreads QoQ

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur

 


THE HBM: MCD, KONA, DIN, CAKE

THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MENU

 

Notable news items and price action from the restaurant space as well as our fundamental view on select names.

 

MACRO

 

Two interesting data points pertaining to the restaurant industry have emerged over the past twenty-four hours.

 

Consumers in the U.S. are increasingly using credit cards to pay for basic necessities as income gains fail to keep pace with rising food and fuel prices; dollar volume of purchases charged grew 10.7% year-over-year in June.

  • The volume of gasoline purchases placed on credit cards jumped 39% year-over-year (compared with a 21 percent increase in June 2010).
  • Food shopping increased 5% year-over-year (compared to falling 7% last year).

Yesterday, the Restaurant finance monitor highlighted a survey from American Express business insights.  A recent report from American Express Business Insights has revealed that overall dining spend increased 1.6 % in the first quarter of the year. QSR sales grew 5.2%; Fine dining sales expanded 4.2% and Casual Dining flat.  Yet another example of the high/low society and the lack of a recovery in the 50-55 cohort, the biggest user of casual dining. 

 

THE HBM: MCD, KONA, DIN, CAKE - 1q sss growth by sector

 

 

Initial jobless claims were, once again, above 400k – coming in at 418k. The four-week rolling number declined by 3k week-over-week to 421k.

 

THE HBM: MCD, KONA, DIN, CAKE - initial jobless claims 721

 

 

Our subsector table shows that full service restaurants underperformed yesterday.  Food processing companies have started to perform less badly.

 

THE HBM: MCD, KONA, DIN, CAKE - subsector fbr

 

 

QUICK SERVICE

  • MCD lost a skirmish in a lawsuit over its Happy Meal advertising practices, as a U.S. district judge ruled the case could not be litigated in federal court.
  • MCD has unveiled sponsorship plans for the 2012 London Olympics. Dara Torres has been announced as global ambassador of a new global initiative focused on “balanced eating and fun play”.

 


FULL SERVICE

  • KONA has outperformed the market by 71% over the past month.  Yesterday volumes across the board were down day-over-day but KONA was up again on accelerating volume.
  • DIN announced today that it has signed a multi-restaurant franchise agreement with AMECO Foods for the development of ten new Applebee’s restaurants in Egypt.
  • CAKE served up earnings largely in line with expectations, although slightly below consensus on comps.  The stock is trading down pre-market.

THE HBM: MCD, KONA, DIN, CAKE - stocks 721

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst


THE M3: S'PORE CPI FORECAST; JUNE MACAU CPI

The Macau Metro Monitor, July 21, 2011

 

 

SINGAPORE RAISES CPI FORECAST, SAYS POLICY APPROPRIATE WSJ

Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) Managing Director Ravi Menon said MAS raised its 2011 inflation forecast to 4-5%, up from its previous forecast of 3-4%, due to an unexpected rise in home rentals and car prices.  However, MAS said its forecast for core inflation remains unchanged at between 2-3% for 2011.  Menon added that inflation, which eased to 4.5% in May from January's two-year high 5.5%, is likely to creep back above 5% for the next couple of months as home rental contracts are being renewed at higher levels and car prices continue to rise.  Menon also mentioned that the MAS and trade ministry are reviewing the 2011 economic growth forecast of 5%-7% given growing uncertainties in the U.S. and Europe.

 

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR JUNE 2011 DSEC

June CPI increased by 5.65% YoY and 0.76% MoM. 


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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - July 21, 2011

 

Watch the media focus on Greece while everything other than Greece is what's starting to have market impact (the #1 Bloomberg headline is one of these hope things "Merkel/Sarkozy to Outline Position on Greek Debt."  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 22 points or -0.52% downside to 1319 and 1.14% upside to 1341.

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 721

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +337 (-1412)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 796.28 (-8.541%)
  • VIX:  19.09 -0.62% YTD PERFORMANCE: -7.55%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.98 from 1.63 (+21.57%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 23.27
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.02% -0.01%
  • 10-Year: 2.96 from 2.91
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.57 from 2.57

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 8:30 a.m.: Jobless Claims, est. 410k, prior 405k
  • 8:30 a.m.: Fed’s Evans speaks to reporters in Chicago
  • 9:45 a.m.: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior -43.9
  • 10 a.m.: Fed’s Bernanke testifies on Dodd-Frank anniversary
  • 10 a.m.: FHFA Home Price Index, est. 0.1%, prior 0.8%
  • 10 a.m.: Leading indicators, est. 0.2%, prior 0.8%
  • 10 a.m.: Philadelphia Fed, est. 2.0, prior -7.7
  • 10:30 a.m.: EIA Natural Gas
  • 1 p.m.: U.S. to sell $13b 10-yr TIPS

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • German Chancellor Merkel, French President Sarkozy will outline a joint position to solve Greece’s debt crisis at European leader summit
  • Express Scripts to Buy Medco for $29 Billion: WSJ
  • Senate Banking Committee hears from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro, CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler and Deputy Treasury Secretary Neal Wolin on the Dodd-Frank law after one year. 10 a.m.

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Oil Declines From Near Highest in Week on Chinese Manufacturing, Dollar
  • Copper Falls for Second Day as Manufacturing May Shrink in Top User China
  • Gold May Drop From Near-Record Price After Franco-German Accord on Greece
  • Soybeans Advance for Second Day on Increased Optimism Over China’s Imports
  • Cocoa Falls for a Third Day on Signs of Ample Supplies; Sugar Prices Gain
  • Paris Wheat May Climb 5.4% on Fibonacci, Agritel Says: Technical Analysis
  • Palm Oil Drops After Rally to Four-Week High as Output Boosts Stockpiles
  • Soybean Crop in India Seen at Record for Second Year as Rains Spur Sowing
  • China June Refined Copper Imports Increase for the First Month in Three
  • Gold May Rally to $1,800 as Newedge Forecasts Stronger Haven, Asian Demand
  • Billionaire Chandler Lifts Sino-Forest Stake as Block Prompts Paulson Exit
  • Inflation Tough to Digest for Asia as Food Costs Soar From Pork to Onions
  • Brent Contango Fades as IEA Is Seen Ending Sales of Crude: Energy Markets

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • EUROPE: oncoming train wreck now that Germany is slowing; Spain/Italy broken; FTSE breaking TREND line of 5921 too; Turkey down -3.1% here?
  • GERMANY - one of my favorite countries and markets (stocks and bonds) for the last 2 years, but the economic data is slowing - period. This morning's German Manufacturing PMI print was a big slowdown to 52.1 vs consensus 54.0,prior 54.6; Services 52.9 vs consensus 56.0, prior 56.7; the DAX is breaking my TREND line (7198).
  • SPAIN - previews to a not so friendly kiss are these July sovereign debt auctions - the big wet smooches are coming in AUG/SEP and I still don't think consensus gets that.  The manic media are so focused on what some European government person will say out of lunch in Brussels

UK Jun retail July preliminary PMI

  • France - Manufacturing 50.1 vs consensus 52.0, prior 52.5; Services 54.2 vs consensus 55.5, prior 56.1
  • EuroZone - Manufactruing 50.4 vs consensus 51.5, prior 52.0; Services 51.4 vs consensus 53.0, prior 53.7

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

  • ASIA: just not a good week for Asian stocks; China down for the last 4 days and India down 3 of the last 4; KOSPI testing TREND line support on
  • CHINA - another ugly PMI print at 48.9 vs 50.1 in July; Chinese stocks led Asia lower last night, down -1% on the news; we may like China from a price - but we don't like this data; neither did Dr Copper trading down -1.1% this morning
  • Japan June trade balance ¥70.7B vs cons (¥148.6B).
  • Japan June supermarket comps (0.7%) y/y

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


Cash Conviction

This note was originally published at 8am on July 18, 2011. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“To hold cash you have to have a conviction that prices of something that you’d otherwise own will go down.”

-Jeff Gundlach, July 2011

 

That was an excellent quote from an excellent Risk Manager in a Bloomberg interview this morning. Jeff Gundlach is nobody’s yes-man. He has conviction in his research and risk management views and he understands there is a difference between the two.

 

He also understands how to use Cash as a risk management weapon. Currently, according to the article (“Gundlach Leads Bond Funds Boosting Cash to Most Since 2008 in Bullish Bet”), the CEO and Founder of DoubleLine Capital is running with 5x the amount of Cash he usually does. I like that. Today, Cash is king.

 

Since the beginning of 2011, one of the best ideas in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model has been Cash. We’ve held the most variant view (versus sell-side consensus) about US GDP Growth being slower than expected for the last 8 months. So why be fully invested in Global Equities when you have conviction that growth expectations need to come down?

 

Here’s the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model as of Friday’s market close:

  1. CASH = 46% (down from 49% last week)
  2. FIXED INCOME = 21% (Long-term US Treasuries and US Treasury Flattener – TLT and FLAT)
  3. INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES = 15% (China, Germany, and S&P Int’l Dividend – CAF, EWG, and DWX)
  4. FOREIGN CURRENCY = 12% (Canadian and US Dollars – FXC and UUP)
  5. US EQUITIES = 6% (Healthcare – XLV)
  6. COMMODITIES = 0%

Now some people say they are bearish on US Growth. But are they Bearish Enough? Or, in the case of China, were they Too Bearish? The answers to these questions will be on the tape by the time 2011 is all said and done.

 

So let’s take some time to knock down the risk management pins, and look at my Global Macro positions in the aforementioned order:

  1. CASH– the art of risk management is not losing money when everyone else does. This position is not going to hurt me or my family (that’s how I look at asset allocation, because I can – my hard earned net worth doesn’t have a fully invested mandate).
  2. TLT – if people aren’t Bearish Enough on US Growth and they are too hawked up on inflation, they really need to be honest with themselves and re-allocate to long-term UST bonds. My immediate-term downside targets in 10 and 30 year US Treasury Yields are 2.82% and 4.11%, respectively. We have been bullish on the long-end of the UST Bond market since April 2011.
  3. FLAT – I still think an obvious way that both the market and investors can express a bearish view on US economic growth is through compression in the Yield Curve. When La Bernank went to QE1, the 10s/2s Spread peaked at 293bps wide. This morning it’s at 253bps wide. All I need for further compression is 2-year yields arresting their decline at the gravitational support level of zero.
  4. CAF – Chinese stocks have beaten US stocks by a 2-bagger since the June lows. Last night China closed down a small -0.12% for the Shanghai Composite’s first down day in the last 4. With Global Growth Slowing, I think you pay more for the growth that you can find.
  5. EWG – Germany is the long position that makes me most nervous. Why? Spend 3 minutes listening to a Eurocrat talk about how well they understand the interconnected global macro risk associated with Italy and Spain (we’re short Italy – EWI). We are long Germany because we like its fiscal and growth positions on a relative basis to almost everyone other than China (of the majors).
  6. DWX – International Dividend Yield of almost 6% here and guess what? As European stocks go lower, that yield goes higher! Chasing yield doesn’t work unless you buy it right. I have been early here (also referred to as being wrong), but have patience and time.
  7. FXC – Loonies were one of the best performing currencies in the world last week. We like safe resources. The Canadian Dollar is in a Bullish Formation (bullish TRADE, TREND, and TAIL) – and, yes, I am Canadian.
  8.  UUP – We walked through why we are bullish on the US Dollar and bearish on the Euro in our Q3 Macro Themes Call on Friday (email sales@hedgeye.com if you want the replay/slides). The policy/currency scenario analysis is always complex, but the conclusion needs to be simple and heavily weighted towards timing/catalysts.
  9. XLV – Healthcare has been the top performing Sector in our 9 Sector S&P Risk Management Model for the last 3 months. We aren’t Johnny Come Latelys here either. At the beginning of 2011, we called Healthcare (XLV) and Energy (XLE) as our 2 favorites. Healthcare remains in a Bullish Formation (bullish TRADE, TREND, and TAIL) at +11.7% YTD.

Commodities at ZERO percent was really wrong last week on one position – Gold. After shorting Gold in December 2010 and covering the short position in January 2011, we’ve been long Gold (GLD) for the better part of 2011, but there are no buts – we aren’t long it here and missed a huge move last week (+3.1% week-over-week) to new all-time highs.

 

There is nothing inconsistent with the long Gold research and the rest of my positions other than not being long Gold itself. The Gold price is not only repudiating Keynesian Economics, but it continues to prove that it outperforms, big time, when the yield on real-interest rates is negative. Gold bulls can thank the Fiat Fools for that.

 

Three other week-over-week moves to think about while these central planners of the world attempt to unite one more time this week in Brussels and Washington:

  1. Euro/USD = DOWN -0.7% last week = bearish intermediate-term TREND (resistance $1.43)
  2. Small Cap US stocks (Russell 2000) = DOWN -2.8% last week = liquidity risk
  3. Volatility (VIX) = UP +22.2% to 19.53 last week = positively correlated to the US Dollar

All the while, Fiat Fool in Chief of the Europig nations, Jean-Claude Trichet, woke the world up to an epiphany in the FT Deutschland this morning: “Naturally the Europeans can manage the issue.”

 

Naturally, we’ll take the other side of that.

 

My immediate-term TRADE ranges for Gold, Oil, and the SP500 are now $1554-1608, $95.82-98.99, and 1297-1319, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there this week,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Cash Conviction - Chart of the Day

 

Cash Conviction - Virtual Portfolio



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