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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - July 21, 2011

Watch the media focus on Greece while everything other than Greece is what's starting to have market impact (the #1 Bloomberg headline is one of these hope things "Merkel/Sarkozy to Outline Position on Greek Debt."  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 22 points or -0.52% downside to 1319 and 1.14% upside to 1341.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 721

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +337 (-1412)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 796.28 (-8.541%)
  • VIX:  19.09 -0.62% YTD PERFORMANCE: -7.55%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.98 from 1.63 (+21.57%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 23.27
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.02% -0.01%
  • 10-Year: 2.96 from 2.91
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.57 from 2.57

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 8:30 a.m.: Jobless Claims, est. 410k, prior 405k
  • 8:30 a.m.: Fed’s Evans speaks to reporters in Chicago
  • 9:45 a.m.: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior -43.9
  • 10 a.m.: Fed’s Bernanke testifies on Dodd-Frank anniversary
  • 10 a.m.: FHFA Home Price Index, est. 0.1%, prior 0.8%
  • 10 a.m.: Leading indicators, est. 0.2%, prior 0.8%
  • 10 a.m.: Philadelphia Fed, est. 2.0, prior -7.7
  • 10:30 a.m.: EIA Natural Gas
  • 1 p.m.: U.S. to sell $13b 10-yr TIPS

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • German Chancellor Merkel, French President Sarkozy will outline a joint position to solve Greece’s debt crisis at European leader summit
  • Express Scripts to Buy Medco for $29 Billion: WSJ
  • Senate Banking Committee hears from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro, CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler and Deputy Treasury Secretary Neal Wolin on the Dodd-Frank law after one year. 10 a.m.

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Oil Declines From Near Highest in Week on Chinese Manufacturing, Dollar
  • Copper Falls for Second Day as Manufacturing May Shrink in Top User China
  • Gold May Drop From Near-Record Price After Franco-German Accord on Greece
  • Soybeans Advance for Second Day on Increased Optimism Over China’s Imports
  • Cocoa Falls for a Third Day on Signs of Ample Supplies; Sugar Prices Gain
  • Paris Wheat May Climb 5.4% on Fibonacci, Agritel Says: Technical Analysis
  • Palm Oil Drops After Rally to Four-Week High as Output Boosts Stockpiles
  • Soybean Crop in India Seen at Record for Second Year as Rains Spur Sowing
  • China June Refined Copper Imports Increase for the First Month in Three
  • Gold May Rally to $1,800 as Newedge Forecasts Stronger Haven, Asian Demand
  • Billionaire Chandler Lifts Sino-Forest Stake as Block Prompts Paulson Exit
  • Inflation Tough to Digest for Asia as Food Costs Soar From Pork to Onions
  • Brent Contango Fades as IEA Is Seen Ending Sales of Crude: Energy Markets

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • EUROPE: oncoming train wreck now that Germany is slowing; Spain/Italy broken; FTSE breaking TREND line of 5921 too; Turkey down -3.1% here?
  • GERMANY - one of my favorite countries and markets (stocks and bonds) for the last 2 years, but the economic data is slowing - period. This morning's German Manufacturing PMI print was a big slowdown to 52.1 vs consensus 54.0,prior 54.6; Services 52.9 vs consensus 56.0, prior 56.7; the DAX is breaking my TREND line (7198).
  • SPAIN - previews to a not so friendly kiss are these July sovereign debt auctions - the big wet smooches are coming in AUG/SEP and I still don't think consensus gets that.  The manic media are so focused on what some European government person will say out of lunch in Brussels

UK Jun retail July preliminary PMI

  • France - Manufacturing 50.1 vs consensus 52.0, prior 52.5; Services 54.2 vs consensus 55.5, prior 56.1
  • EuroZone - Manufactruing 50.4 vs consensus 51.5, prior 52.0; Services 51.4 vs consensus 53.0, prior 53.7

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

ASIAN MARKETS

  • ASIA: just not a good week for Asian stocks; China down for the last 4 days and India down 3 of the last 4; KOSPI testing TREND line support on
  • CHINA - another ugly PMI print at 48.9 vs 50.1 in July; Chinese stocks led Asia lower last night, down -1% on the news; we may like China from a price - but we don't like this data; neither did Dr Copper trading down -1.1% this morning
  • Japan June trade balance ¥70.7B vs cons (¥148.6B).
  • Japan June supermarket comps (0.7%) y/y

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

Howard Penney

Managing Director