TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - July 19, 2011
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 18 points or -0.34% downside to 1305 and 1.04% upside to 1319.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -2139 (-2789)
- VOLUME: NYSE 874.26 (-18.58%)
- VIX: 20.95 +7.27% YTD PERFORMANCE: +19.17%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.99 from 2.48 (-20.03%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 23.68
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.02%
- 10-Year: 2.94 from 2.94
- YIELD CURVE: 2.57 from 2.57
MACRO DATA POINTS:
- 7:45 a.m./8:55 a.m.: Weekly retail sales: ICSC/Redbook
- 8:30 a.m.: Housing starts, est. 2.7%, prior 3.5%
- 8:30 a.m.: Building permits, est. (-2.3%), prior 8.2% (revised
- 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $28b 4-wk bills
- 7:30 p.m.: Fed’s Hoenig speaks on monetary policy, agriculture
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Investor confidence in Germany drops more than forecast in July as euro-area debt crisis worsens
- Zillow prices its IPO after the close today, may value the company at ~$460m
- Spain sold EU4.45b ($6.3b) of treasury bills, just below its maximum target, as its financing costs surged
- Gold surged to record, surpassing $1,610-oz. as it climbed for 12th straight day
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION
COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:
- Record Profits for Miners as Shipping Cost Slumps on Glut: Freight Markets
- Oil Gains in New York as U.S. Supplies, China Demand Counter Europe Debt
- Copper Advances to a Three-Month High as U.S. Housing Starts May Increase
- Sugar Climbs on Smaller Crop in Top Producer Brazil; Cocoa Prices Decline
- Gold May Rise, Extend Longest Winning Streak in Nine Decades, on Debt Woes
- Onahama Copper Smelter Struggles to Restart After Japan Quake, Radiation
- African Swine Fever Close to Russia’s Western Borders Threatening EU Pigs
- India Yet to Decide on Allowing Wheat Exports, Farm Secretary Basu Says
- Corn Futures Advance as Persistent Hot Weather in Midwest Threatens Yields
- Booming Cotton No Boon to African Farmers Milked by Government, Monopolies
- Zhongpin Says Report on Overstated 2010 Sales was Based on ‘Faulty’ Facts
- Barclays Capital’s Yingxi Yu Leaves Commodity Research Team in Singapore
- Thai Rubber Output to Gain as More Trees Begin Production, Exporter Says
- Potash Cartel’s ‘Cupboard Is Bare’ for India After China Pact, Mosaic Says
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
- EUROPE: good day to put your shorts back on; crashing markets bounce to inconsequential lower-highs; resistance: IBEX = 9984, MIB = 19559
ASIAN MARKETS
- ASIA: mixed overnight; China down -0.7% but India up +0.8%; Asian markets don't think $IBM is a new long idea
MIDDLE EAST
Howard Penney
Managing Director
