June airport data was a positive but a lot of the YoY GGR gain will come from an easy table hold comp.
While there are a lot of wild cards, baccarat hold percentage among the most important, we think the June Strip gaming revenue growth was significantly positive. Our best guess is +9 to 13%. The number of enplaned/deplaned passengers at McCarran Airport increased 5.6% in June of this year over last June. Given higher gas prices, we expect that drive in traffic was down.
The comparison is easy on the table side as hold percentage was only 9% versus a normal 12%. Holding table hold constant with last year, June gaming revenues would only be slightly higher. However, slot hold % was very high last year. Overall, we expect gaming volumes to be up around 3%. Net/net, not a bad follow up to a very strong May.
Here are our projections: