Initial Claims Fall 13k - Minnesota Shutdown Adds 11.5k
Initial claims fell 13k last week (22k post the upward revision to last week's data). Rolling claims fell 3k, but the prior week was revised upward, wiping out last week's 3k gain. Net/net, rolling claims remain at the same level they were reported to be last week. However, the decline in reported claims is a positive signal. Furthermore, 11.5k of the reported claims number was attributable to the Minnesota government shutdown.
We also show the initial claims of newly discharged veterans. Despite the current drawdown in troop levels, veterans' claims are roughly flat YoY and down from their recent peak. Veterans' claims are reported on a one-week lag, and account for roughly 10% of total weekly claims.
Yield Curve Tightens WoW
We chart the 2-10 spread as a proxy for NIM. Thus far the spread in 3Q is tracking 1 bp tighter than 2Q. The current level of 254 bps is 13 bps tighter than last week.
Financial Subsector Performance
The table below shows the stock performance of each Financial subsector over four durations.
Joshua Steiner, CFA