INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 22K FOLLOWING ABOVE-AVERAGE REVISION

Initial Claims Fall 13k - Minnesota Shutdown Adds 11.5k

Initial claims fell 13k last week (22k post the upward revision to last week's data).  Rolling claims fell 3k, but the prior week was revised upward, wiping out last week's 3k gain.  Net/net, rolling claims remain at the same level they were reported to be last week.  However, the decline in reported claims is a positive signal.  Furthermore, 11.5k of the reported claims number was attributable to the Minnesota government shutdown.

We also show the initial claims of newly discharged veterans.  Despite the current drawdown in troop levels, veterans' claims are roughly flat YoY and down from their recent peak.  Veterans' claims are reported on a one-week lag, and account for roughly 10% of total weekly claims.  

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 22K FOLLOWING ABOVE-AVERAGE REVISION - rolling

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 22K FOLLOWING ABOVE-AVERAGE REVISION - raw

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 22K FOLLOWING ABOVE-AVERAGE REVISION - NSA

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 22K FOLLOWING ABOVE-AVERAGE REVISION - veterans

 

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 22K FOLLOWING ABOVE-AVERAGE REVISION - fed

 

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 22K FOLLOWING ABOVE-AVERAGE REVISION - S P

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 22K FOLLOWING ABOVE-AVERAGE REVISION - XLF


Yield Curve Tightens WoW

We chart the 2-10 spread as a proxy for NIM. Thus far the spread in 3Q is tracking 1 bp tighter than 2Q.  The current level of 254 bps is 13 bps tighter than last week.

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 22K FOLLOWING ABOVE-AVERAGE REVISION - spreads

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 22K FOLLOWING ABOVE-AVERAGE REVISION - spreads QoQ

Financial Subsector Performance

The table below shows the stock performance of each Financial subsector over four durations. 

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 22K FOLLOWING ABOVE-AVERAGE REVISION - perf

Joshua Steiner, CFA

Allison Kaptur