TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - July 14, 2011
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 26 points or -0.97% downside to 1305 and 1.01% upside to 1331.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +964 (+1446)
- VOLUME: NYSE 883.56 (4.42%)
- VIX: 19.91 +0.20% YTD PERFORMANCE: +12.17%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.86 from 2.24 (-17.10%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 25.48
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01%
- 10-Year: 2.92 from 2.92
- YIELD CURVE: 2.55 from 2.55
MACRO DATA POINTS:
- 8:30 a.m.: Jobless claims, est. 415k, prior 418k
- 8:30 a.m.: Advance retail sales, est. (0.1%), prior (-0.2%)
- 8:30 a.m.: Producer Price Index, est. (-0.2%), prior 0.2%
- 8:30 a.m.: Net export sales
- 9:45 a.m.: Bloomberg Consumer comfort, prior (-45.5)
- 10 a.m.: Bernanke testifies before Senate on Day 2
- 10 a.m.: Freddie Mac mortgage
- 10 a.m.: Business inventories, est. 0.8%, prior 0.8%
- 10:30 a.m.: EIA Natural Gas, est. 79, prior 95
- 1 p.m.: U.S. to sell $13b in 30-yr bond reopening
WHAT TO WATCH:
- President Barack Obama may summon congressional leaders to Camp David summit this weekend after yesterday’s negotiations on raising the debt ceiling stalled
- Gordon Brown urged Ofcom to investigate if News Corp. “fit and proper” to hold 39% stake in BSkyB
- Facebook now valued at $84b, may hit $100b if it goes public next year: WSJ
- Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leaves for Libya Contact talks in Turkey
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION
COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:
- Bumper Wheat Harvest in Australia May Cool Near-Record Global Food Prices
- Copper Seen Rallying as China’s Wanxiang Says Biggest User Faces Shortages
- Gold Climbs to Record on Concern About Fed Stimulus, Europe’s Debt Crisis
- Brent Crude Falls in London on European Debt, U.S. Credit-Rating Review
- Soybeans to Gain as China Demand Draws Down Global Reserves, Cargill Says
- Copper May Climb as Rio Tinto’s Production Drop Fans Concern About Supply
- Sugar Falls on Bets Five-Session Rally Was Overdone; Coffee Prices Climb
- Palm Oil Advances to Three-Week High as Cheapness to Soyoil Boosts Appeal
- Mumbai Blasts Meant to ‘Jeopardize’ $43 Billion Diamond Trade, Group Says
- China Sets Rare Earth Export Quotas for Second Half of 2011, Ministry Says
- Commodity Boom Turns Bust for Stillwater Holders on Copper Deal: Real M&A
- Beef Contaminated by Radiation Intensifies Food-Safety Concerns in Japan
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
- EUROPE: wet Kleenex day returns with most of Europe down and FTSE breaking TREND line support of 5909 again; Greece continue to crash
ASIAN MARKETS
- ASIA: Mixed with China leading on the upside, up another +.54% and up 3 of the last 4 days with Japan down 3 of the last 4; India improving
MIDDLE EAST
Howard Penney
Managing Director