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Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today’s Market Situation Report written by Tier 1 Alpha. If you’re interested in learning more about the Hedgeye-Tier 1 Alpha partnership, there’s more information here.

We covered some of today's bonus topic in yesterday's Tier1 webcast, but it's worth a graphical representation. Treasury Secretary Yellen informs us that we should be very grateful; the economy is bristling with job opportunities. And perversely, she's not wrong. 5.1 million people now work multiple jobs, and those people with full-time employment (35 hours a week) and a second job have risen by 500k since July. That number is up 2 million from the bottom of the pandemic recovery period of May 2020.

Job Growth Isn't What It Seems... - jobs

The last jobs report on Friday showed a notable discrepancy between the household survey or Current Population Survey (CPS) and the establishment survey or the Current Employment Statistics (CES). The household survey employment fell by -683k, the most significant drop since April of 2020, while headline NFP grew by 216k. The household survey generates the unemployment rate, while the establishment survey provides the headline NFP number. 

Survey data has been challenging for the last few years. Respondent levels are very low. 

Knock Knock… "Hello, my name is Fred; the government sent me to ask a few questions: are you working? What's your age, ethnicity and social security number?" It doesn't inspire people to be forthcoming. 

Regarding the household survey, 60,000 households are interviewed; if a family member is working two or three jobs, that's counted as one job. If three family members work six jobs, that's counted as three jobs. You can see how individuals holding multiple jobs quickly distort the household survey. 

For the establishment survey, approximately 122k businesses and, notably, government agencies are interviewed, representing 666,000 work sites. The CES counts jobs, meaning multiple jobholders are counted for each job, including only those who received pay for the pay period. If an individual works five jobs, that's five jobs to headline NFP. The government component is important because in 2023, the government hired more people than manufacturing, transport, warehousing, mining, and construction combined.

The percentage of the workforce holding multiple jobs has returned to pre-pandemic levels, but that's more a product of math; the workforce has grown steadily since the 2000s from 142 million in 2000 to 165 million by the end of 2022. 

Survey data… as Winston Churchill is reputed to say, "I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself."

Learn more about the Market Situation Report written by Tier 1 Alpha.

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