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This chart from Tier 1 Alpha in today's Early Look by Keith McCullough compares 1-month realized volatility (blue line) and 3-month realized volatility (red line). When the blue line crosses the red line, McCullough says it's almost always Quad 4. 

Hedgeye's CEO will review the conditional probabilities of a January Quad 4 during our 150-slide Q1 Global Macro Themes presentation LIVE @HedgeyeTV at 11am ET today (ping sales@hedgeye.com for Macro Pro access).

Today's episode of The Macro Show is available FREE to all viewers. Click here to watch live at 9am ET today.

CHART OF THE DAY: Treading Into Drawdown Waters - cotd

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CHART OF THE DAY: Treading Into Drawdown Waters - sector schedule 720

CHART OF THE DAY: Treading Into Drawdown Waters - Special Free Edition Macro Show Banner 1.9.24