Notable news items and price action from the restaurant space, including our fundamental view on select names.





Investors are paring back bets on rising agricultural prices has supply concerns ease on recent commentary that revealed better supply metrics than previously assumed. 




  • DNKN sees revenues of $155m to $158m for the quarter ended June 25, based on available information, according to an amendment to the company’s S-1 filed this morning.  Additional information included expected net income of $16.4m - $17.4m, Dunkin’ Donuts U.S. comp sales up 3.5% to 4.0% y/y and Baskin-Robbins U.S. comp sales down 2.5% - 3.2% y/y.  The IPO size was boosted to $460m from $400m.
  • MCD operator (Latin America) Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. issued five-year real-linked bonds to yield 10.25% on Friday.



  • CBRL has announced a new five-year $750 million bank credit line.  This should result in added interest charges of $5m in the fourth quarter.
  • BWLD gained on accelerating volume during Friday's trading session.




Howard Penney

Managing Director


Rory Green



TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - July 11, 2011


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 39 points or -1.47% downside to 1324 and 1.43% upside to 1363.






THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance




  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -1202 (-2926)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 771.13 (-8.57%)
  • VIX:  15.95 YTD PERFORMANCE: -10.14%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.65 from 1.15 (-44.05%)



  • TED SPREAD: 22.57
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.03%
  • 10-Year: 3.03 from 3.17
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.63 from 2.68



  • 11 a.m.: Export inspections: Corn, soybeans, wheat
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $27b in 3-mo., $24b in 6-mo. bills
  • 4 p.m.: Crop conditions


  • Ruth’s Hospitality (RUTH) may rise as much as 40% in next 18 mos. as economy rebounds: Barron’s, citing Rollins Capital
  • Morgan Stanley (MS) may be attractively priced after 27% plunge from its Feb. high: Barron’s
  • European officials meet today to consider how to dig Greece out of its financial hole; meanwhile markets are battering bonds of Spain, Italy
  • Williams board was expected to meet yesterday about whether to raise its bid for Southern Union, CNBC reported. SUG trading ~5% above Energy Transfer’s offer price
  • Monsanto, Sinochem said to be in advanced talks over strengthening ties between cos.: WSJ
  • “Transformers: Dark of the Moon” top-grossing film at U.S., Canadian theaters for second weekend, taking in $47m 




THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view




  • Copper May Decline on Concern Sovereign-Debt Crisis Might Spread to Italy
  • Gold May Advance for a Sixth Day as Growth Concern Fuels Demand for Haven
  • Wheat Drops as India May Allow 2 Million Tons for Sale to Foreign Buyers
  • Sugar Drops as Sovereign-Debt Crisis May Spread to Italy; Coffee Slides
  • Platinum Eyes ‘Top End’ of India’s Mass Bullion Jewelry Market, Group Says
  • Monsoon Rain Covering India a Week Early Boost Crops From Rice to Soybeans
  • Tin Exports From Indonesia Jump to Highest Level Since 2009 as Rain Eases
  • Codelco Miners Fight Job Cuts in Company’s First General Strike Since 1993
  • Palm Oil Stockpiles in Malaysia Climb to 18-Month High on Increased Output
  • Copper Imports by China Climb for First Time in Three Months on Stockpiles
  • Gillard Hits Miners as Bond Spreads Widen Most in Year: Australia Credit
  • Hedge Funds Raise Bets on Gasoline After Retail Price Drop: Energy Markets
  • Bangladesh Plans to Buy More Wheat for Welfare Programs, State Agency Says
  • Steel Beating Oil on China Demand Spurs Metalloinvest Debut: Russia Credit




THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view




  • EUROPE: just a mess this morn; FTSE and DAX holding TREND, but Greece and Spain in particular look awful; Finland down 1.6% to -14% YTD


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance




  • ASIA: overdue correction across the board except China (we're long) which closed up +0.18%; KOSPI and Sensex holding TREND support


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance








Howard Penney

Managing Director

PVH/WRC: Not so Fast...

Wells is out this morning saying that it thinks a PVH/WRC combination makes sense.

We actually like WRC here – relatively speaking --  as we think it lacks much of the earnings risk that the rest of the group has this year.


But the fact of the matter is that if it trades up meaningfully on this, more nimble investors should probably sell it. 


Find me anyone that owns WRC where this deal is not part of their ultimate long-term thesis/safety net.

The market has always accepted this deal as inevitable, and embedded it accordingly into WRC’s stock price.


It is simply too soon for PVH to digest such a big transaction.


It is not on the near-term horizon.


18 months out, maybe. But a lot can happen between now and then.

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Macro Consumer

This note was originally published at 8am on July 06, 2011. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“I have often, this past decade, wished that there was a formal and well-established discipline called macro-consumer.”

-Rama Bijapurkar


That quote is from the author of a book that one of our sharpest Global Macro clients sent me recently titled “We Are Like That OnlyUnderstanding The Logic of Consumer India.” That’s what I’m reading this week. It’s an excellent perspective on the real-time global economy.


What is the real-time Global Macro economy? Is it different than the traditional Bachelor of Arts view of the US economy? What is Keynesian economics? And what, if anything, have central planners of Fiat Fool Kingdoms learned about how their short-term decisions impact currencies, commodities, and the Macro Consumer since Rama Bijapurkar made the aforementioned wish in 2007?


These are critical questions concerning both Global Macro-Economic Context and Causality. Instead of a few days of vacation, I could probably take off for a few years and write a book of my own considering the answers. Unfortunately, I don’t have the time to do that, yet.


What I do have time for this morning is throwing some of these questions right back to President Obama. Today, Obama’s economic group-thinkers are going to be huddled in the conference room fielding questions in a wanna be “town hall” on Twitter @ #AskObama. So if you want to know if he calls Geithner his pet Squirrel Hunter in Chief, here’s your chance.


Back to the Global Macro Grind

  1. Global Equity markets like Deflating The Inflation (China, Germany, and USA all holding TREND line support)
  2. The Macro Consumer likes Deflating The Inflation (MBA mortgage applications UP finally this week, +4.8% w/w in the US)
  3.  If President Obama wants to Deflate The Inflation, he’s going to have to do a lot more than tap the SPR

He’s going to have to get out of the way.


A lot of people whine that critics of US Congress “don’t have a solution.” That’s a crock. There is a very simple solution to this Macro Consumer mess:


A)     Strengthen the US Dollar with a credibility bid to get government out of the business of trying to make things happen

B)      Then just let it ride


Ride on the back of the biggest Global Macro Consumption Engine created in the history of mankind – the American Consumer… ride Cowboy Obama, ride!


Tapping the SPR only taps on peoples’ nerves that Big Government Intervention is here to stay. Getting someone like Stan Druckenmiller or Michael Bloomberg to run the US Treasury instead of The Squirrely One would have the opposite effect. The last thing Americans want is Geithner’s smug smirk whispering about the 14th Amendment powers of The President. What they want is change.


Change starts with stopping what isn’t working. Change in Global Macro markets is marked-to-market - not to some cochamamy Keynesian concept that’s attempting not to die in a Princeton textbook.


Just look at what Deflating The Inflation (a 21% peak-to-trough decline in oil prices from late April to the end of June) has done for Global Equities and Global Consumption. It stopped both from going down!


The last 48 hours of Global Macro data has been percolating on this score - and bullishly so:

  1. German Service PMI for the month of June was up sequentially to 56.7 versus 56.1 in May
  2. India’s Services PMI for the month of June was up sequentially to 56.1 versus 55.0 in May
  3. Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence for the month of June was up sequentially to 91.8 versus 90.6 in May

But, again, these are June numbers – and in June, the US Dollar arrested its decline and oil prices were falling. Today is July the 6th, and it’s not clear, yet, if there is a political spine to strengthen the US Dollar sustainably. The Chinese raising interest rates one last time should help.


We shorted oil for the first time in a long time yesterday in the Hedgeye Portfolio. So that means there is an interconnected chance here folks. There really is a chance that the US Dollar Index continues to make a series of higher-lows and busts a bigger move to the upside in the coming months.


If that happens, you will see:

  1. A continued selloff in Oil’s price down to its long-term TAIL of support ($90.51/barrel, or -7% downside from here)
  2. A continued short squeeze in Global Equities from China to Indiana
  3. A continued deleveraging of the Global Hedge Fund community’s carry trading of Geithner’s Down Dollar policies

“We are like that only” in America, Canada, and Germany too. We like to buy gas and food when they are on sale.


My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil, and the SP500 are now $1490-1526, $90.51-97.11, and 1315-1350, respectively.


Best of luck out there today,



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


Macro Consumer - Chart of the Day


Macro Consumer - Virtual Portfolio

Timing Markets

“There are times when it’s important to invest cautiously, and there are times when it’s important to invest aggressively… A big part of the job is knowing where we are and choosing between those two.”

-Howard Marks


Howard Marks is one of the world’s top Risk Managers primarily because he doesn’t have an investment mandate that doesn’t allow him to change. If you can manifest the change you want to see in this industry into your risk management style, I think you can win.


The aforementioned quote is one of the many winner’s quotes you’ll find from Marks. It came at the end of an excellent Bloomberg article by Gillian Wee titled “Biggest Distressed Debt Investor Marks Europe After 22 years of 19% Return.”


Whether we like it or not (I personally love it), Timing Markets matters – big time. Whether it’s on the long or short side of what you think is a great research “idea”, try putting real risk capital on the line for a decade or more across cycles and you’ll quickly realize this lesson the hard way – there is a huge difference between great research and great risk managed research (timing).


Back to the Global Macro Grind


After a massive 2-week melt-up across Global Equities, last week ended on a stinky note. By the time it was all said and done, commodity inflation was up a lot more than US stock market inflation last week; and with US style Jobless Stagflation compounding the stinky-ness of it all, the US Equity futures don’t like it this morning either.


Reviewing the week-over-week moves where it matters on this front, here’s what happened last week:

  1. US Dollar Index = UP +1.1% to $75.18
  2. Euro/USD = DOWN -2.1% to $1.42
  3. CRB Commodities Index = UP +2.1% to 343
  4. West Texas Crude Oil = UP +1.2% to $96.20
  5. Gold = UP +4.0% to $1541
  6. Copper = UP +2.6% to $4.41
  7. SP500 = UP +0.3% to 1343
  8. UST 2yr Yields = DOWN -17% to 0.39%
  9. UST 10yr Yields = DOWN -5% to 3.03%
  10. Yield Spread (10s minus 2s) = DOWN 7 basis points to +264bps wide

What’s a little squirrely about those 10 moves is that we saw Commodity Inflation in the face of a strong US Dollar. That’s a TRADE though and not the TREND. The intermediate-term TREND that we have been calling for since April has been a Deflating Of The Inflation (Q2 Hedgeye Macro Theme). That’s predominantly driven by a series of higher-lows in the US Dollar Index.


Whether it was the 2008 strengthening of the US Dollar or the May-July 2010 period, carry traders of the US Dollar inspired Inflation Trade don’t particularly like it when that happens. Why? Well that’s easy – Timing Markets gets a lot harder when you can’t bank on the Fed bailing you out with another Dollar Devaluation policy. Got an imminent catalyst for QG3?


In terms of the Debt Ceiling debate finding a July compromise and QG2 (Quantitative Guessing Part Deux) ending at the end of June, our call has been that for the first time in a long time both US monetary and fiscal policy have bullish US Dollar catalysts.


We’ll see if this holds, but the odds are that as Silvio Berlusconi shifts his focus from hot-tubbing to going after the “speculators” in Italy, the Euro should be under duress inasmuch as the US Dollar searches for Waldo. Remember, Timing Markets matters – and to get the US Dollar right, you need to get the Euro right.


If you change the duration of the thesis, I can give you a different “research” call for almost everything I am looking at right now. The tricky thing about markets is that they couldn’t care less about the duration of my thesis. I used to get upset about it – now I just deal with it.


In terms of positioning for the intermediate-term TREND, I think Deflating The Inflation and a Strong US Dollar is constructive for US, Chinese, and German equities, from a price.


Here’s how I am currently positioned from a Global Macro perspective in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model:

  1. Cash = 49% (down 3% week-over-week as I add exposure to Global Equities)
  2. International Equities = 21% (China, Germany, Sweden and S&P International Dividend ETF – CAF, EWG, EWD, and DWX)
  3. Fixed Income = 18% (US Treasury Flattener – FLAT)
  4. US Equities = 6% (Healthcare – XLV)
  5. International Currencies = 6% (Canadian Dollar – FXC)
  6. Commodities = 0%

From a timing perspective, I risk managed getting long both Chinese Equities (CAF) and the US Treasury Flattener (FLAT) well. Both of these positions are good examples of expressing a “research” view with solid risk management (timing).


As US growth slows, I wanted to express Growth Slowing by being long the compression of the US Treasury Yield Curve. As global growth slows, I wanted to buy the best major growth market in the world (China) while it’s on sale.


That’s not to say I haven’t made my fair share of timing mistakes. Two weeks ago I sold my Gold (GLD) position as I thought rising US Treasury Yields could deflate the gold price (historically, that’s when gold underperforms –when real-interest rates are negative). This morning, after the train wreck (9.2% US unemployment), US Treasury Yields are falling again, and Gold is rising (as it should).


No one said Timing Markets is easy. But “there are times when it’s important to invest cautiously, and there are times when it’s important to invest aggressively”, and I’ve made it my firm’s responsibility to be thought leaders on the front lines of these Global Macro debates.


My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil, and the SP500 are now $1 (no position in GLD), $91.10-96.93 (we’re short OIL), and 1 (no position in SPY), respectively.


Best of luck out there today,



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


Timing Markets - Chart of the Day


Timing Markets - Virtual Portfolio

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