THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - July 11, 2011

 

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 39 points or -1.47% downside to 1324 and 1.43% upside to 1363.

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 711

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -1202 (-2926)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 771.13 (-8.57%)
  • VIX:  15.95 YTD PERFORMANCE: -10.14%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.65 from 1.15 (-44.05%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 22.57
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.03%
  • 10-Year: 3.03 from 3.17
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.63 from 2.68

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 11 a.m.: Export inspections: Corn, soybeans, wheat
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $27b in 3-mo., $24b in 6-mo. bills
  • 4 p.m.: Crop conditions

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Ruth’s Hospitality (RUTH) may rise as much as 40% in next 18 mos. as economy rebounds: Barron’s, citing Rollins Capital
  • Morgan Stanley (MS) may be attractively priced after 27% plunge from its Feb. high: Barron’s
  • European officials meet today to consider how to dig Greece out of its financial hole; meanwhile markets are battering bonds of Spain, Italy
  • Williams board was expected to meet yesterday about whether to raise its bid for Southern Union, CNBC reported. SUG trading ~5% above Energy Transfer’s offer price
  • Monsanto, Sinochem said to be in advanced talks over strengthening ties between cos.: WSJ
  • “Transformers: Dark of the Moon” top-grossing film at U.S., Canadian theaters for second weekend, taking in $47m 

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Copper May Decline on Concern Sovereign-Debt Crisis Might Spread to Italy
  • Gold May Advance for a Sixth Day as Growth Concern Fuels Demand for Haven
  • Wheat Drops as India May Allow 2 Million Tons for Sale to Foreign Buyers
  • Sugar Drops as Sovereign-Debt Crisis May Spread to Italy; Coffee Slides
  • Platinum Eyes ‘Top End’ of India’s Mass Bullion Jewelry Market, Group Says
  • Monsoon Rain Covering India a Week Early Boost Crops From Rice to Soybeans
  • Tin Exports From Indonesia Jump to Highest Level Since 2009 as Rain Eases
  • Codelco Miners Fight Job Cuts in Company’s First General Strike Since 1993
  • Palm Oil Stockpiles in Malaysia Climb to 18-Month High on Increased Output
  • Copper Imports by China Climb for First Time in Three Months on Stockpiles
  • Gillard Hits Miners as Bond Spreads Widen Most in Year: Australia Credit
  • Hedge Funds Raise Bets on Gasoline After Retail Price Drop: Energy Markets
  • Bangladesh Plans to Buy More Wheat for Welfare Programs, State Agency Says
  • Steel Beating Oil on China Demand Spurs Metalloinvest Debut: Russia Credit

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • EUROPE: just a mess this morn; FTSE and DAX holding TREND, but Greece and Spain in particular look awful; Finland down 1.6% to -14% YTD

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

  • ASIA: overdue correction across the board except China (we're long) which closed up +0.18%; KOSPI and Sensex holding TREND support

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more