Probably won’t be a surprise that we think that it will be MPEL.
Now that we have the property detail for June, our models have been updated. The table below shows our EBITDA estimates versus the Street. The largest divergence is, of course, MPEL. Our new EBITDA estimate is $180 million, up from $172 million, 18% above the Street. We wouldn’t be shocked if they managed to beat even our number.
JPM just raised their MPEL estimate $49 million to $168 million. That’s a whopping 41% increase and he’s still too low! Such a monstrous revision must’ve been accompanied by a rating upgrade right? Wrong. JPM is a dollar short and a day late on this one. Or should I say 10 months late on an upgrade (but not too late) and at least $12 million short on the quarter.
Wynn Macau also had a strong quarter. We are projecting EBITDA at the property of $317 million, 10% above consensus. MGM and LVS may only come in-line with consensus. We don’t have estimates for Galaxy but we are not optimistic about Galaxy Macau to post EBITDA anywhere close to what the Street is expecting.