TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - July 8, 2011
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 55 points or -2.75% downside to 1316 and 1.31% upside to 1371.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1724 (+1347)
- VOLUME: NYSE 843.37 (+2.72%)
- VIX: 15.95 -2.39% YTD PERFORMANCE: -10.14%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.15 from 2.04 (-43.95%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 22.57
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.03%
- 10-Year: 3.17 from 3.12
- YIELD CURVE: 2.68 from 2.69
MACRO DATA POINTS:
- 8:30 a.m.: Payrolls report; Change in nonfarm payrolls: est. 105k, prior 54k; Change in private payrolls: est. 132k, prior 83k
- Unemployment rate: est. 9.1%, prior 9.1%
- 8:30 a.m.: Net export sales: corn, cotton, soybeans, soy oil, wheat
- 10 a.m.: Wholesale inventories, est. 0.6%, prior 0.8%
- 1 p.m.: Baker Hughes Rig Count
- 3 p.m.: Consumer credit, est. $4b, prior $6.247b
WHAT TO WATCH:
- President Obama meets with House Minority Leader Pelosi to discuss debt talks
- The U.S. Monster Employment Index’s 3-point rise in June brings it to its highest level since October 2008.
- The White House and congressional leaders are signaling fresh openness to a broad debt-reduction deal. Obama plans to meet July 10 with Republicans and Democrats
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION
COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:
- Corn-Crop Stunner for Morgan Stanley Means U.S. is Overestimating Supply
- Oil Heads for Second Week of Gains on Economic Outlook; Brent-WTI Spread
- Gold Drops on Stronger Dollar, Selling After First Weekly Climb in Three
- Cocoa Falls on Speculation Bean Supply Will Be Ample; Coffee Prices Drop
- Rice Climbs to Highest Price Since February as U.S. Acreage May Decline
- Indonesia Poised to Surpass Malaysia as Largest Cocoa Processor in Asia
- Poor Countries Seen Likely to Be ‘Hammered’ by Food Costs, Water Shortages
- Copper May Climb on Speculation Hiring Strengthened in the U.S. Last Month
- India Said to Consider Easing Restrictions on Private Wheat, Rice Exports
- Michael Coleman’s $1.2 Billion Commodity Fund Said to Decline 10% in June
- Aluminum Exports From China Soar to Record Ahead of Expected Rebate Cut
- Tardy Monsoon Rainfall in India Damps Cotton Crop Outlook, Official Says
- Natural Gas’s Six-Month Decline to End on Heat, Hurricanes: Energy Markets
- Sugar Prices May Gain Next Week on Brazil Production Concern, Survey Shows
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
- EUROPE: Italy getting hammered here -1.6%, Spain doesn’t look much better (broken TREND); as the DAX continues higher +8.6% YTD
ASIAN MARKETS
- ASIA: continues to look better by the day; Indonesia took the baton last night, closing +1.6%; China up small ahead of known inflation.
MIDDLE EAST
Howard Penney
Managing Director
