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    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - July 8, 2011

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 55 points or -2.75% downside to 1316 and 1.31% upside to 1371.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 78

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1724 (+1347)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 843.37 (+2.72%)
  • VIX:  15.95 -2.39% YTD PERFORMANCE: -10.14%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.15 from 2.04 (-43.95%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 22.57
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.03%
  • 10-Year: 3.17 from 3.12
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.68 from 2.69

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  •  8:30 a.m.: Payrolls report; Change in nonfarm payrolls: est. 105k, prior 54k; Change in private payrolls: est. 132k, prior 83k
  • Unemployment rate: est. 9.1%, prior 9.1%
  • 8:30 a.m.: Net export sales: corn, cotton, soybeans, soy oil, wheat
  • 10 a.m.: Wholesale inventories, est. 0.6%, prior 0.8%
  • 1 p.m.: Baker Hughes Rig Count
  • 3 p.m.: Consumer credit, est. $4b, prior $6.247b

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • President Obama meets with House Minority Leader Pelosi to discuss debt talks
  • The U.S. Monster Employment Index’s 3-point rise in June brings it to its highest level since October 2008.
  • The White House and congressional leaders are signaling fresh openness to a broad debt-reduction deal. Obama plans to meet July 10 with Republicans and Democrats

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Corn-Crop Stunner for Morgan Stanley Means U.S. is Overestimating Supply
  • Oil Heads for Second Week of Gains on Economic Outlook; Brent-WTI Spread
  • Gold Drops on Stronger Dollar, Selling After First Weekly Climb in Three
  • Cocoa Falls on Speculation Bean Supply Will Be Ample; Coffee Prices Drop
  • Rice Climbs to Highest Price Since February as U.S. Acreage May Decline
  • Indonesia Poised to Surpass Malaysia as Largest Cocoa Processor in Asia
  • Poor Countries Seen Likely to Be ‘Hammered’ by Food Costs, Water Shortages
  • Copper May Climb on Speculation Hiring Strengthened in the U.S. Last Month
  • India Said to Consider Easing Restrictions on Private Wheat, Rice Exports
  • Michael Coleman’s $1.2 Billion Commodity Fund Said to Decline 10% in June
  • Aluminum Exports From China Soar to Record Ahead of Expected Rebate Cut
  • Tardy Monsoon Rainfall in India Damps Cotton Crop Outlook, Official Says
  • Natural Gas’s Six-Month Decline to End on Heat, Hurricanes: Energy Markets
  • Sugar Prices May Gain Next Week on Brazil Production Concern, Survey Shows

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • EUROPE: Italy getting hammered here -1.6%, Spain doesn’t look much better (broken TREND); as the DAX continues higher +8.6% YTD

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

ASIAN MARKETS

  • ASIA: continues to look better by the day; Indonesia took the baton last night, closing +1.6%; China up small ahead of known inflation.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director