TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - July 8, 2011

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 55 points or -2.75% downside to 1316 and 1.31% upside to 1371.



THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance



  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1724 (+1347)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 843.37 (+2.72%)
  • VIX:  15.95 -2.39% YTD PERFORMANCE: -10.14%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.15 from 2.04 (-43.95%)



  • TED SPREAD: 22.57
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.03%
  • 10-Year: 3.17 from 3.12
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.68 from 2.69



  •  8:30 a.m.: Payrolls report; Change in nonfarm payrolls: est. 105k, prior 54k; Change in private payrolls: est. 132k, prior 83k
  • Unemployment rate: est. 9.1%, prior 9.1%
  • 8:30 a.m.: Net export sales: corn, cotton, soybeans, soy oil, wheat
  • 10 a.m.: Wholesale inventories, est. 0.6%, prior 0.8%
  • 1 p.m.: Baker Hughes Rig Count
  • 3 p.m.: Consumer credit, est. $4b, prior $6.247b



  • President Obama meets with House Minority Leader Pelosi to discuss debt talks
  • The U.S. Monster Employment Index’s 3-point rise in June brings it to its highest level since October 2008.
  • The White House and congressional leaders are signaling fresh openness to a broad debt-reduction deal. Obama plans to meet July 10 with Republicans and Democrats



THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view



  • Corn-Crop Stunner for Morgan Stanley Means U.S. is Overestimating Supply
  • Oil Heads for Second Week of Gains on Economic Outlook; Brent-WTI Spread
  • Gold Drops on Stronger Dollar, Selling After First Weekly Climb in Three
  • Cocoa Falls on Speculation Bean Supply Will Be Ample; Coffee Prices Drop
  • Rice Climbs to Highest Price Since February as U.S. Acreage May Decline
  • Indonesia Poised to Surpass Malaysia as Largest Cocoa Processor in Asia
  • Poor Countries Seen Likely to Be ‘Hammered’ by Food Costs, Water Shortages
  • Copper May Climb on Speculation Hiring Strengthened in the U.S. Last Month
  • India Said to Consider Easing Restrictions on Private Wheat, Rice Exports
  • Michael Coleman’s $1.2 Billion Commodity Fund Said to Decline 10% in June
  • Aluminum Exports From China Soar to Record Ahead of Expected Rebate Cut
  • Tardy Monsoon Rainfall in India Damps Cotton Crop Outlook, Official Says
  • Natural Gas’s Six-Month Decline to End on Heat, Hurricanes: Energy Markets
  • Sugar Prices May Gain Next Week on Brazil Production Concern, Survey Shows


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view


  • EUROPE: Italy getting hammered here -1.6%, Spain doesn’t look much better (broken TREND); as the DAX continues higher +8.6% YTD


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance


  • ASIA: continues to look better by the day; Indonesia took the baton last night, closing +1.6%; China up small ahead of known inflation.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance






Howard Penney

Managing Director

NKE/UA: Math You Need to Know

Nike re-signing Michael Vick and UA endorsing Kemba Walker are two high-profile deals. But the underlying risk reward is vastly different. It’s very important to understand the off-balance sheet liabilities at play here. UA’s making a lot of the right moves, but Nike is much lower-risk near-term. Nike still one of our top names. We like UA at a price…a lower one.



Nike and Under Armour have made their latest endorsement bets and each matter, but for different reasons. On Friday, Nike resigned Michael Vick (football) followed by Under Armour announcing the signing of former UConn basketball star Kemba Walker yesterday morning. The terms of both deals were undisclosed, but there are multiple takeaways to consider here:


Nike’s Vick Endorsement:

1)      This is a Boom or Bust deal. While the dollar figure may be low, the stakes are high.

2)      Terms of the deal were undisclosed, but we know that Vick was earning $2mm when his deal was severed back in 2007. As the first major endorsement since returning to the game from prison, we’ll assume Nike struck this deal at a considerable discount to the prior level – we’d be shocked to see Vick pull down more than $500k, but with outsized incentives if he sells.

3)      Some might view this as reputational risk given Vick’s jail time – and the reason behind it (dog fighting). After all, Nike severed the deal when he put on his orange jumpsuit. But let’s face some facts, Nike stood behind Tonya Harding after she and Jeff Gillooly tried to break Nancy Kerrigan’s kneecaps. They also stood behind Tiger after his marital problems, and Kobe after his rape accusation. The fact of the matter is that Nike cares about athletic ability above all else. They’ve never been afraid to put their reputation on the line, and they’re not going to start now.  Now that he’s playing again, they’ll put their marketing muscle to work.

4)      Keep in mind, Nike just landed the NFL license a deal that likely cost $30-$40mm a year. This certainly prompted Nike to re-evaluate its spend on players in the NFL. It ‘lost’ Tom Brady to UA – but the reality is that if Nike wanted to keep Brady, then it would have. Brady might be great for UA’s brand, but he was very low – if not negative – roi for Nike.

5)      How we view this as Nike trading a high-fixed-cost but low-revenue-generating asset in Tom Brady for a call option on a variable cost Vick. Makes sense to us.


UA’s Walker Endorsement:  

1)      The company is clearly focused on growing its basketball business and presence in the NBA as well as stepping up its endorsement activity in a big way (Michael Phelps, Lindsay Vaughn, etc…).

2)      UA signed Brandon Jennings to its first basketball endorsement for a reported $2mm back in 2009 and Cam Newton, the #1 pick in the NFL, just recently for around $1mm. After winning the MVP in the NCAA tournament following UConn’s national championship run, we suspect Kemba signed for somewhere in the ballpark of Jennings-type money – if not more.

3)      Interestingly, Kemba was drafted 9th by the Charlotte Bobcats owned by none other than Michael Jordan. There’s hidden value in this deal that simply can’t be measured by a dollar figure alone.


SG&A is usually the first thing that comes to mind when people think about athlete endorsements. But the reality is that the more optimal thing to look at is the change in off balance sheet liabilities.  This is a lot like looking at a retailer that is manipulating its leases to increase/decrease its SG&A and comp leverage hurdle.


Take a look at our updated analysis of both UA’s and NKE’s endorsement obligation commitments below.


Nike’s deals are spread very  consistently – about 17-18% per year over 5-years.


Under Armour’s, on the other hand, are more front-end loaded with 69% of its obligations due in 3-years or less.  This is down considerably from 86% only two years ago, which makes sense given the addition of more long-term contracts. But total commitments are still double vs a year ago. Nike's, on the flip side, are actually down by $400mm (about 10%).


The punchline is that UnderArmour need to execute on these obligations in order to keep margins in the right place. They probably will. But if you own the stock, you should be aware of this.

Nike is the complete opposite.


NKE/UA: Math You Need to Know - UA NKE Endorsement Liab Chart 7 11




Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.


MPEL, Wynn Macau, and MGM Macau look like the best bets to beat Q2. Galaxy Macau off to a weak start.


Total gross gaming revenues (GGR) were $2.59 billion, up 52% over June of last year.  June market hold was 2.77%.  If we normalize hold for both June 2011 and June 2010, the market would have grown 56%.  VIP hold percentage for the market was actually a little lower than last year and a little lower than normal so the month could’ve been even better.  Importantly, high margin Mass revenue grew over 40%, marking its best YoY growth month since May of 2010.  Despite the sequential 15% decline from May, June was a terrific month all around.  Remember that June is typically slower due to May’s Golden Week celebration, 1 extra day, and high hold.  We’ve got our eyes and ears open for a VIP slowdown but so far we haven’t seen it.


In terms of market share, Galaxy was the big winner, obviously, with the opening of Galaxy Macau in mid May.  However, the property’s first full month was disappointing.  More on this later.  Wynn held up the best among the existing concessionaires with its market share actually up slightly in June versus its 6 month average.  SJM fared the worst but some of that was due to low VIP hold in June.  Probably more importantly, on the Mass side, MPEL actually gained 70bps of share from its 6 month average, representing the only concessionaire other than Galaxy to post a gain.  Consensus was that MPEL was most at risk with the opening of Galaxy.  Whoops.  SJM and LVS led the Mass share decline.


The Galaxy numbers look like a disappointment.  We’re pretty sure management was expecting HK$350 million in monthly Mass revenue and they came in at HK$260 million.  On a positive note, Starworld was barely impacted.  We wonder if investors will make any read throughs to Lots 5/6 and a potential disappointment there too.  We’ve maintained that despite the quality of the Galaxy facility, the property could struggle on the Mass side given managements’ relative inexperience in running a Mass property.  That now appears to be the case.


After sifting through the June numbers, LVS wasn’t as good as advertised by its total GGR number.  VIP hold percentage was very high.  VIP chip volume share actually declined 210bps from its 6 month average and was up less than 5% YoY compared to the market at +65%.  On a same store basis (excluding Galaxy Macau), market VIP volume still increased 55%.  LVS continues to struggle in the junket segment despite its recent efforts.  Impressively, MGM, Wynn, and MPEL grew its VIP Chip business 136%, 74%, and 64%, respectively, despite the opening of Galaxy.  On the Mass side, those three companies grew their Mass business 31%, 63%, and 63%, respectively, while LVS only grew 23%.


We are still working on updating our models but it appears that all of the US operators will beat consensus Q2 EBITDA estimates handily with MPEL leading the way.



Y-o-Y Table Revenue Observations:


Total table revenues grew 53% YoY this month, compared with 64% growth last June.  June Mass revs rose 41%; VIP revs grew 58%; and Junket RC soared 65%.  June growth in each table category accelerated from that of May.


For the 4th straight month, LVS table revenues grew the slowest - an unimpressive 12%.

  • Sands recovered in June, up 27% YoY, driven by a 29% rise in VIP and 23% increase in Mass
    • Junket RC was up 12%
    • Sands held pretty high.  Adjusted for 10% direct play (in-line with 1Q11), hold was about 3.3%, compared with 2.8% hold in May 2010, assuming 14% direct play (in-line with 2Q10). 
  • Venetian was up 32% in June, similar to May's growth. Mass rose 27%, while VIP was 34% higher
    • Junket VIP RC barely grew, up 3%, even off of an easy -1% comp
    • Hold was very high in June at 4.3%, based on 19% direct play (compared with 18.7% in 1Q11).  In June 2010, hold was 3.0%, assuming 24% direct play.
  • Four Seasons was the biggest loser for LVS, down 65% in total table revenue.  VIP revs tumbled 75% but hold was a measly 1.1%, assuming 40% direct play, and hold comparisons were difficult (3.4% hold in June 2010 with 50% direct play)
    • Junket VIP RC decreased 8%.

Wynn table revenues were up 34%

  • Mass was up 63% and VIP increased 29%
  • Junket RC soared 74%
  • Assuming 10% of total VIP play was direct, we estimate that hold was 2.7% compared to 3.7% last year (assuming 11% direct play)

MPEL table revenues grew 61%, driven by Mass growth of 63% and VIP growth of 61%

  • Altira was up 58% with Mass up 30% while VIP ballooned 60%
    • VIP RC soared 58%
    • We estimate that hold was 3.1%, similar to that of last year
  • CoD table revenue was up 64%, driven by 70% growth in Mass and 61% growth in VIP
    • Junket VIP RC grew 70%
    • Hold was fairly low, at 2.3% assuming 14% direct play.  Last June, hold was also 2.3% assuming 18% direct play.

SJM revs grew 50%

  • Mass was up 22% and VIP was up 65%
  • Junket RC was up 63%

Galaxy table revenue skyrocketed 124%. Mass went up by 213% and VIP rose by 112%.

  • StarWorld table revenues grew 43%
    • Mass grew 51% and VIP grew 43%
    • Junket RC grew 27%
    • Hold was normal at 2.8%
  • Galaxy Macau's total gaming revenues were 160MM, 43% higher than May (opened for 16 days)
    • Mass table revenue grew to 34MM
    • VIP table revenue of 126MM with RC volume of $3,906MM, which means hold (assuming no direct play) was 3.2%.

MGM table revenue was up triple digits again, growing 114%

  • Mass revenue growth was 31%, while VIP ripped 148% higher - the highest VIP rev growth among the concessionaires
  • Junket RC grew 136%, the 10th straight month that MGM has led in growth for this category
  • Assuming direct play levels of 13%, we estimate that hold was 2.7% this month vs. 2.6% in June 2010

Sequential Market Share (property specific details are for table share while company-wide statistics are calculated on total GGR, including slots):


LVS share in June rose 20bps sequentially to 15.8%. This compares to 6 month trailing market share of 16.8% and 2010 average share of 19.5%

  • Sands' share rebounded 1.1% to 5.1%, after hitting an all-time low in share last month
    • The increase in share was primarily attributed to a 140bps improvement in VIP rev share
  • Venetian’s share ticked up 10bps to 9.5% share
    • VIP and Mass share were relatively unchanged
    • Junket RC decreased 1.2% to 4.2%, a new all-time low
  • FS share fell 90bps to 0.9%, tying a record low
    • VIP share dropped 110bps to 0.7%
    • Mass share decreased 60bps to 1.5%
    • Junket RC share rose 10bps to 1.1%

WYNN share gained 2.1% to 15.3%, driven by easy hold comps.  June’s share is a little above its 6 month trailing average share of 15.1% and 2010 average share of 14.9%.

  • Mass market share increased 60bps to 11.3%
  • VIP market share rebounded 2.9% to 16.2% sequentially
  • Junket RC share rose 10bps to 15.8%, above its 6 month trailing average of 14.8%

MPEL decreased to 13.9% compared to an average 6 month trailing share of 15.0% and 2010 share of 14.6%.

  • Altira regained all the share it lost in May to 6.0%, compared to 5.6% average share in 2010
  • CoD’s share fell 1.2% sequentially to 7.8%. lowest since January 2011
    • Mass market share was roughly unchanged at 10%
    • VIP market share decreased 1.6% to 7.1% while Junket RC share decreased 0.6% sequentially to 7.8% 

SJM was the biggest share loser in June, falling 3.3% to 29.1%, below its 6-month trailing average and 2010 average of 31.3%. But hold was only 2.5%, in-line with last year's.

  • Mass market share decreased 1.7% to 36.3% while VIP share tumbled 4.5% to 27.5%
  • Junket RC share fell 1% to 32.4% from 33.4% in May

Galaxy continued its momentum from Galaxy Macau, gaining 2.2% to 15.4%, its highest share since Oct 2007. June share compares with an average share of 10.9% in 2010 and a 6 month trailing average of 10.7%.

  • Galaxy Macau garnered 6.5% market share on a full month of operations, up from 2.9% in May
    • Mass market share gained 270bps to 5.6%, VIP share gained 260bps to 6.7% and RC share gained 270bps to 6.1%
  • Starworld's market recovered 30bps to 8.1%, just 10 bps below its pre-Galaxy Macau level
    • Mass market share gained 70bps to 2.9% while VIP share rose 30bps to 9.7%

MGM's share fell 90bps to 10.5%, erasing its gains from May.  June share compares with an average share of 8.8% in 2010 and a 6 month trailing average of 11.2%.

  • Mass share decreased 90bps to 7.8%
  • VIP share decreased 80bps to 11.2% - still the 2nd highest property share (that we track) after Wynn/Encore
  • Junket RC decreased 80bps to 10.7%, materially above the property’s 2010 average of 8.4% and its 6 month trailing average of 10.8%


Slot Revenue:


Slot revenue grew 37% YoY in June to $112MM, down 16% sequentially

  • Galaxy slot revenues grew at a white hot pace of 467.2%, reaching $8MM
  • Wynn slot revenues fell sequentially to $9MM to $23MM
  • MGM fell $4MM sequentially to $15MM
  • MPEL’s slot revenue fell sequentially $6MM to $19MM
  • SJM’s slot revenues grew $3MM sequentially to $18MM
  • LVS continues to grow the slowest at 3% YoY as slot revs fell $6MM sequentially to $26MM






Great Numbers. Don't Get Used To It.


Not much negative to say about today’s sales numbers.  Even though we can say “yeah, everybody was expecting June to be great,” the fact of the matter is that retail is trading up nearly 3x the rest of the market.  


On one hand, we need to look back to May, where the number of misses outweighed the number of beats by a factor of 2 to 1. With that, we’d argue that company-set expectations were on the low side. But on the flip side, we cannot ignore the fact that actual sales activity (which could care less about expectations) accelerated on a 1, 2 and 3-year basis.


Staying true to our process, anytime we get new datapoints we need to go back, challenge and stress test our thesis. That thesis – which we’ve been quite vocal about – is that margins will be down 4.5 points for the industry for 2H11 into 2012, and that this is not represented in estimates.  


When all is said and done, our answer is that there’s no change to our thesis. We’re still negative on this group, and as more bears throw in the towel, we think that it’s a better shot to short bad businesses at better prices.


Why? As we outline below (our Retail Fuel note from Tuesday), 2H10 saw a meaningful improvement in the Consumer’s bill of health (not cured, but out of the ICU). Average weekly earnings rose materially, unemployment – though still high -- posted a 150bp improvement in its delta. And despite the fact that raw material prices were going ballistic, it wasn’t represented in the price of the product that we buy at the mall or online. In 2H11, we’re unlikely to see the same improvement in unemployment – in fact the yy delta has started to erode. Inventories at retail are rising out of necessity, as retailers simply cannot grow their respective top lines anymore after 3 years of taking down inventories to unsustainable levels. Most importantly, these inventories will represent the raw material costs we started to see in 4Q of last year.  Are there companies who are ‘locked in’ at better prices? Yes. But that’s the most common rebuttal I hear about our JCP call. Margins have two components, my friends. When a company thinks that they’re ok because of certainty on the cost side, that’s when we should worry. Costs are manageable. Lower demand, stiffer competition, and forced promotional activity to clear inventories are not. With 9 out of 10 earnings misses, it is the latter that spurs the guide-down.


SSS Callouts: 

  • The higher-end luxury stores continue to outperform. Within the department stores, JCP +2%, SSI +1.8%, and BONT -0.9% underperformed the higher-end with Neimans up +12.5%, Saks +11.9%, JWN +7.9%, M +6.7%.
  • Discounters were again the strongest performing segment of retail for the fifth consecutive month as expected against easier compares on a relative basis a trend that reverses in July. Additionally, the 2-year trends by channel reflect a significant contraction in the performance spread suggesting that the value gap present in recent months may be deteriorating putting significant pressure on margins in the process.
  • JCP was the clear negative callout coming in below expectations. While the rest of the retail reported strong June sales, JCP cited a softer environment resulting in higher promotional activity. Brand highlights were scant for the second consecutive month with Sephora the key callout and a mention of Liz Claiborne as a strong driver in women’s apparel. Internet sales continue to slow sequentially to 2.2% from 2.8% in May. Inventories remain a primary callout. After failing to mention inventories altogether last month, the company noted levels are “appropriate for expected sales trends,” a comment that holds little credibility made in the same month the company just missed expectations.
  • Category performance shifted towards a higher propensity for discretionary spending in the quarter with more retailers highlighting jewelry and accessories (SKS, JCP, COST, SSI, ROST, KSS). Consistent with last month, grocery/food was highlighted as the top performing category at both COST and TGT in addition to positive mention at BJs. Women’s apparel (JCP, COST, ROST, KSS, TJX) was another particularly strong category during June.
  • TGT was one of the standouts in June coming in well above expectations with comps accelerating on both a 1yr and 2yr basis driven by continued strength in the critical grocery category. We continue to expect a reacceleration in the top-line over the next 12-months. The sole question mark for us revolves around how much of this is driven by the 5% Rewards program, or an increased shift to consumables (P-Fresh). Fortunately, the extreme bearishness we come across on the Street is thinking the same. After being negative on TGT for most of the past year, we continue to incrementally warm up to it.
  • COST confirmed that inflation continues to creep higher with both fresh foods and food and sundries both now up in the MSD range. Gas also contributed just over +3% and +3.8% to SSS for both COST and BJ respectively. Our view is that this will continue to add to the pain as the retailers choose to capture consumables inflation costs at the expense of discretionary product margins. (i.e can’t take up price on milk, eggs, and chicken – so look to extract margin in categories like underwear, shirts, toys, etc…).
  • Weekly trends were largely positive across all five weeks with few individual callouts. Due to the timing of Independence Day, which added an extra selling day COST highlighted a 2%-3% benefit in June and the expectation for a negative 3%-4% impact in July.
  • On a regional basis, results were consistently strong across the Northeast (GPS, Neiman, TJX, KSS, JCP) and Southeast (BJ, Neiman, SSI, COST, JWN) with Texas receiving several callouts alone from ROST, COST, and Neimans. Similar to last month, the Midwest was the most varied with TGT, KSS, SSI, and COST noting stronger sales while GPS and TJX highlighted weaker trends likely driven by specific geographic exposure to floods and tornadoes that occurred in June.

Great Numbers. Don't Get Used To It. - SSS Total 7 11


Great Numbers. Don't Get Used To It. - SSS Comps 1yrChan 7 11


Great Numbers. Don't Get Used To It. - SSS Comps 2yrChan 7 11


"Retail Fuel" (7/5/11)

For further context, here's our note from Tuesday:


Before looking forward, let’s set the context as to where we stand today, and what we’ve been fed over the past year at a Macro level.  


As important as things like weather and calendar shifts are, let’s start off with a couple of bigger picture points about the Macro climate ‘then versus now.’

  1. Gross Personal Income was running at about 2.5% compared to about 4.5% today. That’s a function of slightly lower unemployment and marginally higher nominal wage. (positive point)
  2. The two main levers that account for the delta between Gross Income and Personal Consumption pretty much wash each other out.
    1. The consolidated personal tax rate has risen above 10% vs 9.1% this time last year. (negative point)
    2. The personal savings rate, which had been running at 6.1%, has since trended back to 5%.
  3. When we look at what we call ‘essential spending’ (food, energy, healthcare), we’ve seen growth go from 2.6% last year up in nearly a straight line to around 4.3% today.
  4. All that’s left goes into the ‘discretionary spend’ bucket which is far more volatile.  This stood at a healthy 7.5% a year-ago – a level that remains today (at least for now).
  5. Based on our read out of POS data (NPD, SportscanINFO), sales for the month of June were pretty much middle of the road. Apparel decelerated over the course of the month, albeit still positive. Footwear unit growth accelerated, though it the direct result of slightly lower price points. Overall there are nit picks here and there, but the trend overall is unremarkable.

What’s Next?

  1. We think that sales day will be another domino to tip as it relates to giving additional datapoints to the Street about margin weakness – especially as it relates to earnings season beginning for the vendors in 2 weeks. This has been our call (4.5 Below – 450bos of margin weakness beginning in 2H) and we’re sticking with it.
  2. The consumer’s top line – believe it or not – strengthened materially beginning in July of last year. Personal income growth accelerated over 3% -- -and hasn’t looked back. Now we go against that in 2H. Perhaps it stays at that level. But our point is that the yy delta helped out so many in retail – and that’s no longer there.
  3. Could we get a few bps of tax relief to buoy spending? Maybe. But not over 100bp. It’s simply not there – even with the political calendar heating up.
  4. Is the consumer going to draw the personal savings rate back down to 2-3% to free up a few points of spending? It’s possible – especially given US consumer spending habits. This is the biggest area where we could be wrong with our call in 2H. But that will make the setup for 1H12 very grim – i.e. low taxes, trough savings rate, with interest rates nowhere to go but up. That’s the ultimate defensive position for the consumer.
  5. Check out the weekly average earnings chart below. There was a whole lot of nothing until May 2010, until growth accelerated meaningfully – peaking in October, and remained at healthy levels throughout year-end. We’ve got to comp against this.



We all know that ‘the cotton trade is dead.’ That’s been the consensus for 7 months now. But we still think that the ‘earnings trade’ is very much alive. Remember that cotton, oil and other raw materials generally have a 9-12 month lead time. That means that what is selling today was procured last summer/early fall of last year. That’s precisely when costs started their precipitous ascent. We’ll have to deal with this for the next year at a minimum. Likely longer. We still don’t think we’re looking at a recovery until 2013 in this space.

Governor Carney Will Stop the Inflation Puck

Conclusions:  The prudent Governor Carney of the Bank of Canada will continue to raise rates, which should lead to strength in the Loonie versus the U.S. Dollar, especially given the Fed’s Indefinitely Dovish policy.


Position: Long the Canadian dollar (FXC).


Last week we wrote an Early Look note titled, “Pax Canadiana”.  While the title was in some jest given that the note was written on July 1st, or Canada Day, it did lay out some key long term trends that will drive Canadian economic growth for decades to come.  Interestingly, the trend of global warming (even if just cyclical), is a key component of this as it will attract immigrants and broaden Canada’s agriculture markets.  While these long term trends will likely support the Canadian dollar over the coming decades, in the short term the facts that underscore our long position in the Loonie are simply: higher interest rates, fiscal health, and economic stability.


In contrast to many central bankers around the world, Governor Mark Carney of Canada is actually widely respected by his fellow countrymen.  In fact, a recent poll in the Canadian version of Reader’s Digest actually ranked Carney as the Most Trusted Canadian.  From our perspective, while we are a little concerned that he is a former back-up goalie from Harvard, we actually believe he is a pragmatist that will do the right thing as it relates to inflation.


Earlier this year in a speech in Calgary to the Inter-American Development Bank, Governor Carney made the following comments:


Monetary policy has to deal with inflationary pressures first and foremost . . . . There are undoubtedly downside risks in the global economy. But if one is dominated by those short-term risks, then you're not going to do the things that are necessary to rebalance the global economy and to sustain it over the mid-to-long term."


In this statement, and other public statements, Carney has been crystal clear about his marching orders, which are first and foremost to stop inflation.  Indeed, he has actually followed through on his mission and has raised interest rates three times in the last year, though the Bank of Canada has been on hold since September of 2010. 


Below we’ve charted Canadian CPI going back a year, which highlights the recent acceleration of inflation in Canada.  In May, Canadian CPI was +3.7%, an acceleration from April at 3.3% and a three month high.   While gasoline was a major component of this increase, CPI ex-gasoline was still up 2.4% in May versus 2.2% in April ex-gasoline.   Given that the Bank of Canada’s target is to keep inflation in the midpoint of a 1 – 3% range, it seems unlikely that the Bank of Canada will be on hold much longer.  In terms of catalysts, the next monetary policy decision dates are July 19th, September 7th, and October 25th.


Governor Carney Will Stop the Inflation Puck - 1


From a fiscal perspective, we are comfortable being long the Loonie given the relative fiscal health of Canada versus, really, much of the Western world.  In fact, Canada has the lowest debt-to-GDP and deficit-to-GDP ratios in the G-8.  Further, the current Canadian budget is expected to be balanced by 2015. The difference in these metrics versus the United States is simply staggering.  Currently, there is no credible plan in place to ever balance the U.S. budget.  So, from a relative fiscal health perspective the Loonie continues to look very compelling.


Finally, while there can be no doubt that the Canadian economy is inextricably tied to the U.S. economy  (estimates suggest that the U.S. accounts for more than 70% of Canadian exports and more than 60% of Canada imports), the economies are showing some recent decoupling.  In the two charts below, we show this in both GDP and unemployment.  For the first time in forty years, Canadian unemployment is lower than American unemployment, and has been sustainably.  Further, Canadian GDP growth is beginning to outpace American economic growth rates.


Governor Carney Will Stop the Inflation Puck - 2


Governor Carney Will Stop the Inflation Puck - 3


In summation, the collective confluence of a healthier economy, solid fiscal healthy, and a prudent Central Banker who is focused on fighting inflation, should lead to a strong Loonie both against the U.S. Dollar and general currency baskets.


Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research

the macro show

what smart investors watch to win

Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00am ET, this special online broadcast offers smart investors and traders of all stripes the sharpest insights and clearest market analysis available on Wall Street.