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Our upside target level for the S&P 500 in the near term is 1030.64 provided that the index can hold above 952. We remain 75% cash and 25% equities but will look to selectively increase our equity position if the S&P 500 remains above our support level through the week.

Current volatility has forced us to keep our target levels exceptionally wide. To put the present situation in historical context we calculated the intraday spread between low and high for the cash S&P as a percentage of the prior session’s close since November of 1984: 34.21% of all days with moves that exceeded 5% were in calendar 2008 and 31.58% were in sessions after September 17th of this year.

PS -For those who are superstitious: 55.26% of moves that were 5% or greater happened on days in the month of October.

Andrew Barber