TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - July 7, 2011


Part of the Hedgeye philosophy is to just let the market show us her path of least resistance; we have shifted to be a little longer this week - the Pain Trade is up (for now).  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 45 points or -1.81% downside to 1315 and 1.55% upside to 1360.






THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance




  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 377 (416)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 821.05 (-9.47%)
  • VIX:  16.34 +1.74% YTD PERFORMANCE: -7.94%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.04 from 1.87 (+9.10%)



  • TED SPREAD: 24.07
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01%
  • 10-Year: 3.12 from 3.16
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.69 from 2.72 



  • 8 a.m.: RBC Consumer Outlook Index
  • 8:15 a.m.: ADP Employment Change, est. 70k, prior 38k
  • 8:30 a.m.: Jobless claims, est. 420k, prior 428k
  • 9:45 a.m.: Bloomberg consumer comfort, est. (-44.3), prior (-43.9)
  • 10 a.m.: Freddie Mac mortgage survey
  • 10:30: EIA Natural Gas storage, est. 82, prior 78
  • 11 a.m.: DoE inventories
  • 12:30 p.m.: Fed’s Hoenig speaks in Ada, Okl.
  • 2 p.m.: USDA cattle, hog slaughter



  • President Obama meets with congressional leaders over debt
  • NYSE Euronext holders vote on $9.33b Deutsche Boerse takeover
  • Allen & Co. conference continues in Sun Valley
  • Verizon Wireless ends unlimited data plans for new customers
  • LG Electronics cut its year sales for target for smartphones; losing share to Apple, Samsung
  • Bank of England Holds Key Rate at 0.5%, as Expected




THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view




  • World Food Prices Climb on Sugar, Dairy Costs, Stoking Inflation Pressure
  • Copper Fees May Stay High on Japan Quake, Slumping China Imports, JX Says
  • Oil Rises in New York on Signs U.S. Crude Stockpiles Shrank a Fifth Week
  • Copper Reaches 11-Week High as Adverse Weather Fuels Concern About Supply
  • Wheat Drops for Second Day as U.S. Weather Improves, Russia Exports Resume
  • Sugar Climbs as Brazil’s Cane Crop May Miss Estimate; Cocoa Prices Decline
  • Goldman, Morgan Stanley Stay Bullish on Oil, Copper as Economy to Recover
  • China’s $70 Billion Fund Managers Rush to Boost Gold Investment Overseas
  • Gold for Immediate Delivery Declines 0.2% to $1,525.65 an Ounce in London
  • Cocoa-Bean Production in Indonesia to Expand on Replanting, Rehabilitation
  • China Corn Buying Too Little to Spur Rally After USDA Report, Cofco Says
  • Coal Poised for Worst Quarter This Year on China, Japan: Energy Markets
  • Florida Orange Output Will Be Below Forecast on Dry Weather, Survey Shows



THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view




  • European stocks advanced for the eighth time in nine days
  • UK May Manufacturing output +2.8% y/y vs consensus +2.1% and prior revised +1.2% from +1.3%; UK May Manufacturing output +1.8% m/m vs consensus +1.0% and prior revised (1.6%) from (1.5%)

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance




  • ASIA: looking healthier by the day; India ripped +1.7% higher overnight and the squeeze is on there now too; KOSPI and China look solid.


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance








Howard Penney

Managing Director

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more