TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - July 6, 2011
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 35 points or -1.71% downside to 1315 and 0.91% upside to 1350.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -39 (-2012)
- VOLUME: NYSE 906.95 (+4.84%)
- VIX: 16.06 +4.84% YTD PERFORMANCE: -9.52%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.87 from 1.30 (+43.98%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 23.56
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.02%
- 10-Year: 3.16 from 3.22
- YIELD CURVE: 2.72 from 2.72
MACRO DATA POINTS:
- 7 a.m.: MBA Mortgage, prior (-2.7%)
- 7:30 a.m.: Challenger job cuts, prior (-4.3%)
- 7:45 a.m./8:55 a.m.: ICSC/Redbook Weekly Sales
- 10 a.m.: ISM non-manufacturing: est. 53.7, prior 54.6
- 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $28b 4-wk bills
- 4:30 p.m.: API inventories
WHAT TO WATCH:
- President Obama will take questions today in what White House officials are calling his first Twitter town hall
- IMF Managing Director Lagarde to hold news conference in Washington at 9:30 a.m.
- Greek banks are willing to roll over their government bonds as part of a European Union aid plan, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said; debt-holders meet in Paris today
- Allen & Co. conference continues in Sun Valley; watch for developments on Hulu talks
- Facebook to make announcement; reports from TechCrunch, others have indicated it’s a video-chat partnership with Skype
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION
COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:
- Rice Futures May Help Tokyo Grain Exchange Break Even After Run of Losses
- Crude Oil Declines as Portuguese Debt Downgrade Sparks Demand Concern
- Wheat Drops as Warmer Weather May Aid Spring Crop Prospects; Rice Gains
- Coffee Falls for a Fourth Day as Frost Concern Eases; Sugar Prices Slide
- Cotton Poised for Further Declines on Fibonacci Levels: Technical Analysis
- Copper May Drop, Risking Longest Winning Streak of 2011, on Debt Crisis
- Gold May Climb for Third Day as European Debt-Crisis Concern Spurs Demand
- U.S. Farmland Boom May Peak in 2011 After Five-Year Surge, Rabobank Says
- Oil Supply Falls Fifth Week in Survey on Refining, Imports: Energy Markets
- Kodak Default Odds Reach 74% After License Suit Delays: Corporate Finance
- BASF Said to Consider Ending Genetically Modified Crop Research in Germany
- Coal of Africa Climbs Most Since 2008 in Johannesburg on Project Approval
- Australia Ends Month-Long Suspension of Live Cattle Shipments to Indonesia
- Oil Tanker Rentals Seen Sinking to the Lowest Since 1997: Freight Markets
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
- EUROPE: markets fall after 7 days of gains.
- Moody’s downgraded Portugal’s credit rating to junk on Tuesday
- Spain and Italy this morn -both markets down hard and broken TRENDs, while Germany continues to look great.
- Germany May industrial orders +1.8% m/m vs consensus (0.5%) and prior revised +2.9% from +2.8%
- UK June Halifax house prices +1.2% m/m vs consensus +0.0% and prior +0.1%
ASIAN MARKETS
- ASIA: looks better and better by the day with both the KOSPI and Sensex breaking out above Hedgeye’s immediate-term TRADE lines
MIDDLE EAST
Howard Penney
Managing Director