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GGR came in near the middle of our projection range of HK$19.5-20.5 billion.

Gross Gaming Revenues (GGR) totaled HK$20.2 billion.  June couldn’t keep up with May (down 14% MoM) which is understandable given:  a) Golden Week in May, b) 1 fewer day in June, and c) high VIP hold percentage in May.  YoY growth was a whopping 52%, although the comparison was easier than normal.  With the World Cup in June of 2010, volumes were probably held back last year.  We won’t have the monthly detail until Tuesday or Wednesday but we think hold was fairly normal.

The biggest story of the month may be the disappointing early results at Galaxy Macau (GM).  We don’t yet have the breakdown between StarWorld and Galaxy Macau but we are hearing that StarWorld has barely missed a beat since GM opened.  If this is the case, the first full month of revenue at GM will have been viewed as highly disappointing.  We think VIP volume at GM may be only 60% of that at Starworld.  On the Mass side, GM seems to be attracting the lowest end customer on Cotai.  Busing has no doubt contributed to that.

We will certainly have more precise color in a couple of days but we think MPEL has the most EBITDA upside relative to consensus for Q2 followed by MGM Macau, Wynn Macau, and Sands China, in that order.

MACAU MAKES THE GRADE IN JUNE - macau june