TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - June 30, 2011


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 15 points or -1.03% downside to 1294 and 0.12% upside to 1309.






THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view




  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1128 (-618)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 913.00 (+13.5%)
  • VIX:  17.27 -9.91% YTD PERFORMANCE: -2.70%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.40 from 1.43 (-1.60%)



  • TED SPREAD: 22.54
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.02%
  • 10-Year: 3.148 from 3.05
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.67 from 2.57 



  • 8:30am: Quarterly USDA reports
  • 8:30 a.m.: Acreage planted (cotton, corn, wheat, soybean)
  • 8:30 a.m.: Jobless claims, est. 420k, prior 429k
  • 8:30 a.m.: Net export sales
  • 9 a.m.: Treasury Secretary Geithner attends Clinton’s CGI America in Chicago
  • 9:45 a.m.: Chicago Purchasing Manager, est. 54.0, prior 56.6
  • 9:45 a.m.: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, est. (-45.2) prior (-44.9)
  • 10 a.m.: Fed’s Bullard gives speech on QE in Missouri
  • 10 a.m.: NAPM Milwaukee, est. 59.0, prior 62.0
  • 10:30 a.m.: EIA natural gas
  • 1 p.m.: Fed’s Hoenig speaks in Des Moines


  • Germany’s biggest banks and insurers, the government said to agree on a draft proposal to roll over Greek debt holdings
  • Bank of America, Goldman among financial firms cutting jobs as equity, bond trading slows
  • American Airlines is discussing an order of as many as 280 new narrow-body jets, a deal that may worth at least $22.6b based on list prices



THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view




  • Rice Supplies Tightening in China May Increase Imports, Bolster Inflation
  • Texas Cotton Farmers Abandon Record Acres on Drought as Gap’s Costs Rise
  • Crude Oil Falls, Heads for Quarterly Decline, Amid Signs of Ample Supplies
  • Corn Gains on Concern USDA Will Reduce Estimates for Acreage, Inventories
  • Copper May Climb on Reduced Concern Greek Debt Default Might Affect Banks
  • Cocoa Rises to Eight-Week High on Shortage Speculation; Sugar Prices Drop
  • Gold May Decline as Reduced Greek Default Concern Curbs Investment Demand
  • Silver ‘Euphoria’ Drops as India Buyers Return to Gold, Spot Exchange Says
  • Scrapping Record Fails to End ‘Nightmare’ for Shipowners: Freight Markets
  • Mining Boom Makes Truck Tires Pricier Than Porsches, Condominiums in Miami
  • Sugar Australia Buys Thai, Brazil Supplies for Second Time in Three Years
  • Lynas’s Malaysia Rare-Earth Plant Faces Delay on Government Safety Review
  • Dutch Poultry Bacteria Linked to Superbugs in People, Researchers Report
  • CBH Raises Western Australia Grain Harvest Forecast as Rains Boost Crops



THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view




  • European equity markets trade higher; peripheral markets led the gains.


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance




  • Asian market are generally higher..


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance








Howard Penney

Managing Director

Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more