The following are some nuggets we picked up recently. We’re here in Macau and will try to get confirmation on a lot of this stuff.
- Galaxy Macau - drop in share may be due to weakness in VIP business
- Galaxy Macau advertising in HK has not gotten the bang for the buck spent. Behind target.
- Management quietly disappointed that the property has not performed to expectations
- Mostly good news for the most underappreciated stock in Macau in our opinion
- Strong volumes the last couple of weeks
- Galaxy Macau impact on CoD has been less than expected – Street consensus was that CoD was going to get crushed
- Macau Studio City:
- Probably needs gazetting to start construction
- Shouldn’t be a problem if developer sticks to original 2008 plan; otherwise, any changes to the plan will require new govt approvals
- Earliest ramp-up in construction will be end of 2011; same time for Wynn Cotai
- Neptune likely to open at CoD in the next couple of weeks
- Another junket operator Lao Kung also finalizing deal to open at CoD
- Rumor that Neptune thinking about moving home base VIP room from MGM to Galaxy Macau
- Would be a blow to MGM since Neptune was a big part of MGM’s market share surge
- Plausible given Galaxy’s struggles – Galaxy may be willing to offer attractive package
- Will announce name for sites 5 & 6 soon; probably Sands Cotai
- Hotel operator for site 5 will probably be Holiday Inn or Hilton
- Site 5 completion date: 1Q 2012 is doable but certainly by 2Q 2012.