Notable news items and price action from the restaurant space as well as our fundamental view on select names.




Persisting drought conditions in the southern Great Plains states are making it likely that the rebuilding of the United States’ cow herd will take four years or more. 


Wheat has continued to slide and could, once June is completed, be at the end of the biggest monthly slump since 2008 as harvesting accelerated thanks to the warm, dry weather.  According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, approximately 44% of the winter crop was harvested as of yesterday, ahead of the five-year average of 37%. 


Restaurants have seen declining guest visits for evening meals for three years but that is now changing, according to new findings from the NPD group.  Food inflation for groceries is said to have narrowed the gap between away-from-home and in-home dining costs.  See the chart, below, for a longer term perspective of Food-at-home CPI versus Food-away-from-home



TALES OF THE TAPE - cpi home away from home




  • MCD is to start serving Café con Leche drinks in South Florida, targeting the large Latino population.
  • CBOU continues to outperform.  The stock has gained 27% over the past month.
  • SONC declined on accelerating volume.  We are negative on this name.



  • KONA, one of our favorite names in casual dining, traded up 9.3% yesterday.  Please refer to our prior notes on this.
  • RUTH and BWLD gained on accelerating volume yesterday.
  • MRT declined on accelerating volume.

TALES OF THE TAPE - stocks 628



Howard Penney

Managing Director

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

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REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

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Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

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Premium insight

[UNLOCKED] Today's Daily Trading Ranges

“If I could only have one thing of the many things we have it would be my daily ranges." Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough said recently.

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We'll Say It Again: Leave Your Politics Out of Your Portfolio

If your politics dictates your portfolio positioning, the Democrats and #NeverTrump crowd out there have had a hell of a week.

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Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

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Neurofinance: The Psychology Behind When To Sell A Bull Market

"Most momentum investors stay invested too long, under-reacting and holding tight after truly bad news finally arrives to break the trend," writes MarketPsych's Richard Peterson.

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Energy Stocks: Time to Buy the Dip? | $XLE

What the heck is happening in the Energy sector (XLE)? Energy stocks have trailed the S&P 500 by a whopping 15% in 2017. Before you buy the dip, here's what you need to know.

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