TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - June 27, 2011
Ahead of the likely sluggish income and spending numbers, futures are modestly higher. Asia-Pacific stock markets posted losses overnight except China (we are LONG) and Europe was higher in the early morning. As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 20 points or -0.82% downside to 1258 and 0.75% upside to 1278.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -838 (-352)
- VOLUME: NYSE 1740.41 (+55.74%)
- VIX: 21.10 +9.38% YTD PERFORMANCE: +18.87%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.11 from 2.41 (-12.30%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 23.61
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.02%
- 10-Year: 2.88 from 2.93
- YIELD CURVE: 2.53 from 2.58
MACRO DATA POINTS:
- 8:30 a.m.: Personal income, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
- 8:30 a.m.: Personal spending, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4%
- 10:30 a.m.: Dallas Fed, est. (-3.2), prior (-7.4)
- 11 a.m.: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks on leverage in Montana, audience Q&A
- 11 a.m.: Weekly export inspections (corn, wheat, soybeans)
- 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $27b 3-mo. bills, $24b 6-mo. bills
- 1 p.m.: Fed’s Hoenig speaks in Washington, audience Q&A
- 1 p.m.: U.S. to sell $35b in 2-yr notes
- 4 p.m.: Crop conditions
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Greek lawmakers begin 3-day debate on austerity package
- “Cars 2” from Disney’s Pixar opened as the top film in U.S., Canadian theaters this weekend, collecting $68m in ticket sales
- President Obama meets with Senate leaders to see if they can restart the deficit/debt talks that fell apart last week
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION
COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:
- Longest Losing Streak Since 2008 Ending for Commodities as Futures Surge
- Bread in Japan Becoming Costlier May Curb Purchasing Power, Slow Recovery
- Commodities Tumble to Five-Month Low on Basel Rules, Greek Austerity Vote
- Oil Slides on Outlook for Slower Demand as IEA May Release More Stockpiles
- Copper Falls as Greece’s Debt Crisis May Curb Demand for Industrial Metals
- Smithfield Foods’ Hunger for Bacon Makes Sara Lee Merger Target: Real M&A
- Gold Pares Drop After Reaching 1-Month Low on Dollar’s Gains Against Euro
- Cocoa Climbs as Purchasers Secure Mid-Crop Supplies; Sugar Prices Decline
- Wheat, Corn Drop as Greek Debt Woes Cut Investor Appetite for Commodities
- Food Crisis Cooperation ‘Doomed’ Unless Action Taken, Warns Kofi Annan
- Shanghai Sea-Cargo Volume to Increase 10% Annually as Plants Move Inland
- Speculators Cut Agriculture Bets as Improving Weather Eases Supply Concern
- Copper-Alloy Product Output From Japan Climbs as Demand Begins To Recover
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
- Europe is generally higher lead by Span (we are short) and Italy.
ASIAN MARKETS
- Asian market are generally weaker (we are short Japan down -1.03%) and LONG China up +0.44%
MIDDLE EAST
Howard Penney
Managing Director
