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Downward Facing Dog

This note was originally published June 22, 2011 at 08:30am ET.

 

“It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.”

-Yogi Berra

 

My name is Daryl Jones.  I’m a former hockey player from Alberta.  I practice yoga (sometimes even Bikram yoga).

 

Last night I was thinking what it must be like for the Greek Socialists to have to fully embrace the concept of dramatically cutting government spending.  From a personal perspective, I think it is a little like me admitting that I practice Yoga.  In my heart, I’m still a hockey player, but deep down I also know that practicing yoga is much better for my aging, thirty-something body.  Nonetheless, it remains embarrassing to admit. (No offense to any of our Yogi readers.)

 

Yesterday, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won a confidence vote to sustain his leadership of the Greek government.  The next major date for the Greek government is June 30th when the Greek parliament votes on austerity measures of EUR28 billion.  Assuming these measures are passed, then the EU and IMF will extend a EUR12 billion lifeline to Greece.

 

Obviously, it is unlikely that these austerity measures do not pass, given the new cabinet has passed the confidence test.  The reaction from the markets to the likelihood of austerity and additional bailout monies for Greece was, well, muted at best.  In fact, Greek 10-year yields declined a measly 30 basis points from yesterday to 16.97%, while the periphery yields moved even less with both Spain and Italy 10-year yields effectively flat from yesterday.  The markets are calling the impending extend and pretend from the EU and IMF for what it is – a short term solution to a long term issue.  As we all know, being on the wrong side of a duration mismatch is never a good thing.

 

The other day I had an exchange with a friend that started with her asking me generally about the economy (for purposes of privacy we will call her The Diplomat).  Our discussion quickly evolved into a broad discussion of economic policy.  To be fair to The Diplomat, while she has a BA from Yale and law degree from Harvard, she has a limited economic background.  She also willfully admitted that she gets most of her info from The New Yorker and New York Times.  After I went on a bit of rant about the low return of government spending, she responded, “I thought Keynesian economics was sound.”

 

This, ironically, is the one key positive from the sovereign debt issues in Europe.  These issues are quickening the pace towards the demise of Keynesian economics.  The simple fact that a Greek Socialist had to fight to retain his government in order to have the ability to pass massive government spending cuts is about as representative of the end of Keynesian economics as it gets. In the long run, this will be a positive.  In the short run, we will see more pain.

 

Just over a year ago, on May 18th, 2010, we gave a presentation to our subscribers entitled, “Bearish Enough on Spain?”.  The presentation is posted here:

 

http://docs.hedgeye.com/Hedgeye%20Q2%20Themes%20and%20SPAIN%20May%2018%202010.pdf

 

Last May, while the Greek issues were widely known, we contended that investors were not bearish enough on the peripheries, in particular Spain.  Spanish CDS literally bottomed the day we gave our presentation and has been trending upwards steadily ever since.  Specifically, 5-year CDS closed at 177bps on May 18th, 2010 and last traded at 279bps, which is a 56.8% return from our call.

 

The primary takeaway from Greece’s actions yesterday and the market’s reaction today is that sovereign debt issues are far from over and, we would submit, our call that investors are still not bearish enough on the peripheries remains intact.  If Greece can rattle the world’s markets, the reaction will be amplified as fiscal and debt issues accelerate in Spain and Italy.  For reference, Spain is the 8th largest economy in the world and 5th largest in Europe, or 5x the size of Greece.  Spain ain’t Kansas, and I ain’t Toto.

 

With the excitement in Greece behind us, the focus returns to the United States today and the FOMC statement and the Bernanke presser thereafter.  Our view on U.S. interest rate policy is that the Fed will remain Indefinitely Dovish.  To be specific, we believe this means an interest rate increase will not occur before well into 2012.  As for Quantitative Easing, recent rhetoric suggests that the Fed is done with this policy.   History, on the other hand, suggests that if we get three or so months of negative payrolls, the policy will be revisited, even though Chairman Bernanke clearly appears frustrated by the limited impact of QE1 and QE2. 

 

The reality is, though, that the ineffectiveness of QE1 didn’t stop the Fed from implementing QE2.  Personally, I don’t believe I’ve seen a more apropos manifestation of Albert Einstein’s definition of insanity than Quantitative Easing. As Einstein said:

 

“Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

 

Namaste,

 

Daryl G. Jones

Managing Director

 

Downward Facing Dog - Chart of the Day

 

Downward Facing Dog - Virtual Portfolio


TALES OF THE TAPE: SBUX, KKD, YUM, WEN, SONC, DRI

Notable news items and price action from the restaurant space as well as our fundamental view on select names.

 

 

MACRO

 

It seems that inflation is continuing to subside as the stronger dollar impacts market prices of commodities today.  Supply and demand dynamics, however, continue to point higher for agricultural commodities; speculation mounted yesterday that hot weather in the growing areas of the U.S. may limit corn and soybean crop prospects this year. 

 

Yesterday, the ICSC cut its forecast for June comps, now sees up 2%-3% ex-fuel, had seen 3%-4%.  We are short CBRL in the Hedgeye virtual portfolio and very cautious on CAKE.

 

 

QUICK SERVICE

  • SBUX is a Buy, according to UBS with upside to Fiscal 2012 consensus EPS in what the bank describes as “one of the best large capitalization growth stories” in consumer.

Hedgeye: While we are long SBUX in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio and believe that the CPG business offers SBUX room to continue its growth trajectory, from a quantitative perspective the stock is immediate-term TRADE overbought.

 

  • KKD is going healthy, selling fruit juice, yoghurt, and oatmeal.

 

  • YUM Director of IR Timothy Jerzyk spoke at the Jeffries conference yesterday and highlighted his company’s belief that YUM can have 20,000 restaurants in China, with profit in the country growing by 15%.  East Dawning, according to YUM, is a “great opportunity” for China growth.

Hedgeye: YUM is leveraging its superior position in China and emerging markets to gain an advantage over its competition.  While the U.S. business is performing poorly, China is now so important for the company that, in order to be negative on YUM, one must be negative on China.

 

  • WEN upgraded to hold from sell at Argus Research.

Hedgeye: We still think there are two negative data points not in the stock (remodels being rethought and breakfast not working).

 

  • SONC to report EPS today - Comps System +4.9%; Franchise +4.7%; Company +6.1%

Hedgeye - expectation are now elevated to the point that it’s going to be hard to beat.  The turnaround is well established.  Valuation is rich at 9.1x EV/EBITDA.  Without big upward revisions, the upside from here is about $1.10.

 

FULL SERVICE

  • DRI is one of the cheapest shares out there, according to Morgan Stanley, with limited downside and a dividend hike in its “back pocket”.  DRI reports 4QFY11 earnings on June 30.

Hedgeye: As I said yesterday, the SSS have accelerated, but the question remains about consumer preference for the promotion, especially given the double digit inflation the company is experiencing in seafood.

 

TALES OF THE TAPE: SBUX, KKD, YUM, WEN, SONC, DRI - stocks 622

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director



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Downward Facing Dog

“It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.”

-Yogi Berra

 

My name is Daryl Jones.  I’m a former hockey player from Alberta.  I practice yoga (sometimes even Bikram yoga).

 

Last night I was thinking what it must be like for the Greek Socialists to have to fully embrace the concept of dramatically cutting government spending.  From a personal perspective, I think it is a little like me admitting that I practice Yoga.  In my heart, I’m still a hockey player, but deep down I also know that practicing yoga is much better for my aging, thirty-something body.  Nonetheless, it remains embarrassing to admit. (No offense to any of our Yogi readers.)

 

Yesterday, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won a confidence vote to sustain his leadership of the Greek government.  The next major date for the Greek government is June 30th when the Greek parliament votes on austerity measures of EUR28 billion.  Assuming these measures are passed, then the EU and IMF will extend a EUR12 billion lifeline to Greece.

 

Obviously, it is unlikely that these austerity measures do not pass, given the new cabinet has passed the confidence test.  The reaction from the markets to the likelihood of austerity and additional bailout monies for Greece was, well, muted at best.  In fact, Greek 10-year yields declined a measly 30 basis points from yesterday to 16.97%, while the periphery yields moved even less with both Spain and Italy 10-year yields effectively flat from yesterday.  The markets are calling the impending extend and pretend from the EU and IMF for what it is – a short term solution to a long term issue.  As we all know, being on the wrong side of a duration mismatch is never a good thing.

 

The other day I had an exchange with a friend that started with her asking me generally about the economy (for purposes of privacy we will call her The Diplomat).  Our discussion quickly evolved into a broad discussion of economic policy.  To be fair to The Diplomat, while she has a BA from Yale and law degree from Harvard, she has a limited economic background.  She also willfully admitted that she gets most of her info from The New Yorker and New York Times.  After I went on a bit of rant about the low return of government spending, she responded, “I thought Keynesian economics was sound.”

 

This, ironically, is the one key positive from the sovereign debt issues in Europe.  These issues are quickening the pace towards the demise of Keynesian economics.  The simple fact that a Greek Socialist had to fight to retain his government in order to have the ability to pass massive government spending cuts is about as representative of the end of Keynesian economics as it gets. In the long run, this will be a positive.  In the short run, we will see more pain.

 

Just over a year ago, on May 18th, 2010, we gave a presentation to our subscribers entitled, “Bearish Enough on Spain?”.  The presentation is posted here:

 

http://docs.hedgeye.com/Hedgeye%20Q2%20Themes%20and%20SPAIN%20May%2018%202010.pdf

 

Last May, while the Greek issues were widely known, we contended that investors were not bearish enough on the peripheries, in particular Spain.  Spanish CDS literally bottomed the day we gave our presentation and has been trending upwards steadily ever since.  Specifically, 5-year CDS closed at 177bps on May 18th, 2010 and last traded at 279bps, which is a 56.8% return from our call.

 

The primary takeaway from Greece’s actions yesterday and the market’s reaction today is that sovereign debt issues are far from over and, we would submit, our call that investors are still not bearish enough on the peripheries remains intact.  If Greece can rattle the world’s markets, the reaction will be amplified as fiscal and debt issues accelerate in Spain and Italy.  For reference, Spain is the 8th largest economy in the world and 5th largest in Europe, or 5x the size of Greece.  Spain ain’t Kansas, and I ain’t Toto.

 

With the excitement in Greece behind us, the focus returns to the United States today and the FOMC statement and the Bernanke presser thereafter.  Our view on U.S. interest rate policy is that the Fed will remain Indefinitely Dovish.  To be specific, we believe this means an interest rate increase will not occur before well into 2012.  As for Quantitative Easing, recent rhetoric suggests that the Fed is done with this policy.   History, on the other hand, suggests that if we get three or so months of negative payrolls, the policy will be revisited, even though Chairman Bernanke clearly appears frustrated by the limited impact of QE1 and QE2. 

 

The reality is, though, that the ineffectiveness of QE1 didn’t stop the Fed from implementing QE2.  Personally, I don’t believe I’ve seen a more apropos manifestation of Albert Einstein’s definition of insanity than Quantitative Easing. As Einstein said:

 

“Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

 

Namaste,

 

Daryl G. Jones

Managing Director

 

Downward Facing Dog - Chart of the Day

 

Downward Facing Dog - Virtual Portfolio


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - June 22, 2011

 

After 11 consecutive trading days of ZERO Sectors of 9 being bullish on the Hedgeye immediate-term TRADE duration, 2 of 9 Sectors flashed green yesterday - Healthcare (XLV) and Utilities (XLU). That's the good news.

 

The bad news is that is a very defensive rotational signal - and the SP500 overall did not confirm bullish TRADE (1305 is TRADE line resistance). So we shorted the SPY at 1297 today, looking for a continuation of this market's bearish intermediate term TREND (1320 is TREND line resistance).  Fortuitously, we covered our Basic Materials (XLB) short last week when we signaled a "Short Covering Opportunity."  We also remain long Healthcare (XLV), which is now up +12.2% for the YTD.

 

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 46 points or -2.82% downside to 1259 and 0.73% upside to 1305.

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 622

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +2167 (+1098)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 851.16 (+8.23%)
  • VIX:  18.86 -5.65% YTD PERFORMANCE: +6.25%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.57 from 1.65 (-4.80%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 22.52
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.03%
  • 10-Year: 2.99 from 2.97
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.59 from 2.59 

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 7 a.m.: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 13.0%
  • 10 a.m.: FHFA House Price Index, est. (-0.3%), prior (-0.3%)
  • 10:30 a.m.: DoE inventories
  • 12:30 p.m.: FOMC rate decision
  • 2:15 p.m.: Bernanke press conference

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Bullish sentiment increases to 37.6% from 37.0% in the latest US Investor's Intelligence poll
  • Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won a parliamentary confidence vote
  • Americans are growing more dissatisfied with Obama’s handling of the economy, Bloomberg poll shows
  • FOMC completes two-day meeting with interest-rate decision at 12:30 p.m

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Silver-Coin Sales Boom at Perth’s Mint as Mums and Dads Desert Paper Money
  • Sugar Crop in Thailand Climbing to Record for Second Year May Curb Prices
  • Century of Hunger Is Warning From France as Farm Ministers From G-20 Meet
  • Nickel-Concentrate Imports by China Double to Record as Production Climbs
  • Aluminum’s Premium Gains Being Fueled by LME Warehouse Rules, Harbor Says
  • Oil Drops on U.S. Stockpiles, OPEC Output; Goldman Sees ‘Choppy’ Prices
  • Copper Drops on Concern Europe’s Debt Crisis May Erode Demand for Metals
  • White Sugar Rises on Speculation About Crop Losses in Top Producer Brazil
  • Wheat Gains as 16% Slump Lures Buyers, Canada’s Acreage Drops on Weather
  • Gold May Advance as European Sovereign-Debt Concern Stokes Investor Demand
  • Oil May Rise Above $95 a Barrel After Clearing Band: Technical Analysis
  • Rubber in Tokyo Declines to Four-Week Low as Supply From Thailand Expands
  • Rainstorms in China Provinces Seen Raising Concerns of Reduced Rice Crop
  • Europe Commodity Day Ahead: France Warns of Century of Hunger Before G-20

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • EUROPE: red across the board with Greece bucking the trend but trading below TREND lines

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

  • ASIA: green across the board, with China (which we are long) up +0.10%, Japan up 1.79% and India is sliding again down -14.53% YTD

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


Infinitesimal Truth

This note was originally published at 8am on June 17, 2011. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“Measured objectively, what a man can wrest from Truth by passionate striving is utterly infinitesimal.”

-Albert Einstein

 

What’s the truth? Greek politicians lied.

 

Market prices don’t lie; politicians do. We have politicians running countries and banks. Everyone but them realizes that most of them are market morons. Use that truth to your risk management advantage.

 

While professional politicians wouldn’t even know what Excel sheet to launch alongside a real-time market price to measure market risk, you can bet your Madoff that these people know how to manage their political career risk.

 

That’s what I expect to see coming out of this weekend in Europe. That’s why I think the Euro has an immediate-term bid this morning. That’s why I have looked at the 7th consecutive week of down Global Equities as a Short Covering Opportunity (moving to 12 LONGS, 7 SHORTS in the Hedgeye Portfolio).

 

What’s the truth?

  1. The US Dollar is finally stabilizing above our critical $74.41 support line
  2. The US Dollar going UP = Deflating The Inflation
  3. The Euro (and the Fiat Fools who back it) are perpetuating 1 and 2

To say that’s not the truth would imply that Mr. Macro Market is lying. There is Infinitesimal Truth in the market’s prices if you accept that A) uncertainty and B) interconnectedness can lead you to it.

 

What’s the truth?

  1. For June 2011 to-date, the SP500 is DOWN -5.8%
  2. For June 2011 to-date, the Russell2000 is DOWN -7.9%
  3. For June 2011 to-date, the CRB Commodities Index is DOWN -4.6%

At Hedgeye we’ve called this Deflating The Inflation (Q2 Macro Theme). It’s occurring in the price of your home, stocks, and commodities. And yes, in the end, Deflating The Inflation is going to be very bullish for Global Consumption (70% of US GDP).

 

What’s the truth?

  1. Week-to-date, the price of Oil (at $93, which was our target) = DOWN -6.1%
  2. Week-to-date, the price of Cotton = DOWN -10.1%
  3. Week-to-date, the price of Wheat = DOWN -9.9%

And the truth about Deflating The Inflation in commodity prices is that 99% of the free, socialist, and communist world likes it. As for the other 1% of us who are chasing monthly performance metrics to manage our own career risk, I don’t think God cares.

 

I’m not trying to be trite. I like God a lot – but he doesn’t owe me a return. From the day that I started this business, I have been focused on transparency, accountability, and trust. All encompassing in these principles is the truth.

 

Whether people who want to see me fail like it or not, the truth is that Hedgeye has been right on 16 of 17 closed positions (LONG and SHORT) in the Hedgeye Portfolio in June. The truth is that’s called alpha – and we want you to embrace the process that generated it.

 

We are passionately striving for Macro Market Truths. They are very different than political realities. Since the US Federal Reserve was created in 1913, the world has had to deal with the market volatility caused by Fiat Fools implementing short-term career risk policies.

 

I have been on the road talking about this chart for the last 10 weeks, so many of you who have given me some of your time will be familiar with it (see Chart of The Day attached). This is a Reinhart & Rogoff chart from “This Time Is Different” (by the way Mr. Greek Politician man, it’s not) that tracks the median inflation rate going back to the year 1500.

 

This is a Global Macro chart. And yes members of the Keynesian Kingdom, markets are now Globally Interconnected. Ever since the world allowed professional politicians to decide what the perceived “value” was for fiat currencies (the post Gold Standard period, 200 years of Global Industrialization, 1740 to WWII – see chart), we have done nothing but:

  1. Shorten economic cycles of inflation/deflation
  2. Amplify the volatility of those inflating/deflating prices

If La Bernank et La Trichet have an answer to the causality embedded in this 510 year picture, I think the 99% of us would be more than happy to hear their version of the truth.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold (we are long), Oil (Goldman has been bullish; Hedgeye Bearish), and the SP500 (we have covered all sub-sector S&P ETF shorts), are now $1521-1554, $93.01-98.98, and 1260-1278, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today and enjoy your weekend. Happy Father’s Day, Dad.

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Infinitesimal Truth - Chart of the Day

 

Infinitesimal Truth - Virtual Portfolio


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