THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - June 21, 2011

 

The USD down = Commodity and Stocks up, but lower-highs on low volume across the board.  Is the USD is back down for the week-to-date because:

 

A) Bernanke has his US Dollar Devaluation Presser in the next 48hrs?

B) Eurocrats are finding a way to hold $1.42 EURO/USD support?

 

We will get more bullish on Global Equities (China in particular) if the USD strengthens and we Deflate The Inflation - not the other way around.  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or -1.51% downside to 1259 and 0.99% upside to 1291.

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +1069 (+296)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 786.44 (-50.99%)
  • VIX:  19.99 -8.51% YTD PERFORMANCE: +12.62%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.65 from 2.03 (-18.51%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 22.12
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.03%
  • 10-Year: 2.97 from 2.94
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.59 from 2.56 

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 7:45 a.m./8:55 a.m.: ICSC Retail/Redbook Retail
  • 10 a.m.: Existing home sales, est. 4.8m (-5.5% M/m)
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $58b in 4-wk bills
  • 4:30 p.m.: API inventories

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Germany June ZEW economic sentiment (9.0) vs consensus (2.0) and prior +3.1;Germany June ZEW current conditions 87.6 vs consensus 89.5 and prior 91.5
  • Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou faces a confidence vote in his government
  • Jon Huntsman to announce he’s running for president
  • Spain Sells 2.4b Euros of 6-Month Bills - Avg 6-mo. yield 1.776% vs 1.766% at May auction.

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Copper Imports by China Slump 47% as Consumers Prefer to Drain Stockpiles
  • Oil Gains a Second Day as Euro Crisis Eases, U.S. Crude Supplies Seen Down
  • Copper Rises From One-Week Low on Reduced Concern About Greek Debt Default
  • Pork Prices in China Seen Staying at Highs as Domestic Shortage Persists
  • Raw Sugar Falls on Forecast for Increased Thai Production; Cocoa Advances
  • Corn Gains After Slump as Flooding Threatens China Crop Amid Rising Demand
  • Gold May Advance as Weaker Dollar, Greek Debt-Default Concern Spur Demand
  • Qaddafi Tanks Deprived of Diesel as Ships Shunning Libya: Freight Markets
  • Australia Keeps Sugar Forecast as Cyclone Damage Offsets Increased Acreage
  • Russia Fails to Win Back Egypt, World’s Biggest Wheat Buyer, After Halt
  • Rubber in Tokyo Declines to One-Month Low on Concern Demand Remains Slow
  • Rubber Production in India Jumping 22% as Car Sales Fuel Demand for Tires
  • Crude Supplies Fall in Survey as Gasoline Output Increases: Energy Markets
  • China’s Rare Earth Quotas May Limit Supply to Japan, Europe, Lifton Says

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • EUROPE: green across the board, but on low-volume to lower-highs; DAX back above my 7139 TREND line; Spain and Greece below TREND lines
  • S&P reaffirms view it would likely treat voluntary debt restructuring for Greece as a default, Moritz Kraemer, head of European sovereign ratings tells Die Welt

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

  • ASIA: green across the board, with China (which we just bought) up +1% and India finally stopped making lower-lows, +0.33%.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more