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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - June 21, 2011

The USD down = Commodity and Stocks up, but lower-highs on low volume across the board.  Is the USD is back down for the week-to-date because:

A) Bernanke has his US Dollar Devaluation Presser in the next 48hrs?

B) Eurocrats are finding a way to hold $1.42 EURO/USD support?

We will get more bullish on Global Equities (China in particular) if the USD strengthens and we Deflate The Inflation - not the other way around.  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or -1.51% downside to 1259 and 0.99% upside to 1291.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +1069 (+296)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 786.44 (-50.99%)
  • VIX:  19.99 -8.51% YTD PERFORMANCE: +12.62%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.65 from 2.03 (-18.51%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 22.12
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.03%
  • 10-Year: 2.97 from 2.94
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.59 from 2.56 

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 7:45 a.m./8:55 a.m.: ICSC Retail/Redbook Retail
  • 10 a.m.: Existing home sales, est. 4.8m (-5.5% M/m)
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $58b in 4-wk bills
  • 4:30 p.m.: API inventories

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Germany June ZEW economic sentiment (9.0) vs consensus (2.0) and prior +3.1;Germany June ZEW current conditions 87.6 vs consensus 89.5 and prior 91.5
  • Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou faces a confidence vote in his government
  • Jon Huntsman to announce he’s running for president
  • Spain Sells 2.4b Euros of 6-Month Bills - Avg 6-mo. yield 1.776% vs 1.766% at May auction.

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Copper Imports by China Slump 47% as Consumers Prefer to Drain Stockpiles
  • Oil Gains a Second Day as Euro Crisis Eases, U.S. Crude Supplies Seen Down
  • Copper Rises From One-Week Low on Reduced Concern About Greek Debt Default
  • Pork Prices in China Seen Staying at Highs as Domestic Shortage Persists
  • Raw Sugar Falls on Forecast for Increased Thai Production; Cocoa Advances
  • Corn Gains After Slump as Flooding Threatens China Crop Amid Rising Demand
  • Gold May Advance as Weaker Dollar, Greek Debt-Default Concern Spur Demand
  • Qaddafi Tanks Deprived of Diesel as Ships Shunning Libya: Freight Markets
  • Australia Keeps Sugar Forecast as Cyclone Damage Offsets Increased Acreage
  • Russia Fails to Win Back Egypt, World’s Biggest Wheat Buyer, After Halt
  • Rubber in Tokyo Declines to One-Month Low on Concern Demand Remains Slow
  • Rubber Production in India Jumping 22% as Car Sales Fuel Demand for Tires
  • Crude Supplies Fall in Survey as Gasoline Output Increases: Energy Markets
  • China’s Rare Earth Quotas May Limit Supply to Japan, Europe, Lifton Says

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • EUROPE: green across the board, but on low-volume to lower-highs; DAX back above my 7139 TREND line; Spain and Greece below TREND lines
  • S&P reaffirms view it would likely treat voluntary debt restructuring for Greece as a default, Moritz Kraemer, head of European sovereign ratings tells Die Welt

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

ASIAN MARKETS

  • ASIA: green across the board, with China (which we just bought) up +1% and India finally stopped making lower-lows, +0.33%.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

Howard Penney

Managing Director