Boosting our June revenue target to HK$19.5-20.5BN.
Last week was a good one in Macau with average daily gaming revenues increasing to HK$705 million per day from HK$622 million for the 1st two weeks of June. We don’t yet know if the acceleration was hold related but we are upping our full month forecast to a range of HK$19.5-20.5 billion (+50% YoY). These levels would still be a big sequential slowdown from May’s HK$23.6 billion but not surprising. June does not contain a Golden Week and May also benefited from high VIP hold. We would consider a HK$20 billion June to be seasonally and sequentially appropriate given May’s hold adjusted performance.
Market shares held fairly steady from last week with Galaxy and LVS giving up some share to MGM which seems to be back to a normalized level following an unlucky first 2 weeks. Interestingly, while still early it looks like the two major peninsula operators – Wynn and SJM – have lost the most share since Galaxy opened on Cotai. LVS and MPEL with primarily operations on Cotai, have each lost only 50bps. If market share and market revenue trends continue, it still looks like MPEL has the most upside relative to consensus EBITDA expectations for Q2.