POSITION: No position SPY
Back by popular demand is our old behavioral market reality - Squeezy The Shark. She dwells in the depths of the hedge fund community. She bites you when you don’t have it in you to Cover Low. She wants a look at the 1293 line.
There were 2 economic data points left this morning to get the shorts paid:
- Michigan Consumer Confidence = DOWN 2.5 points m/m to 71.8 (reversing all of May’s gains)
- US Leading Indicators = +0.8% sequentially (but it’s an April # and basically irrelevant)
Neither of these data points matter. If you didn’t know consumer confidence was falling as home and stock prices have, now you know. Markets discount.
What matters is the USD/Euro cross. And for now, the market morons (Greek politicians) in Europe have the career risk management trade on into the weekend. Euro UP = USD DOWN = Stocks UP.
This is very immediate-term analysis but, like driving a car, risk management occurs all of the time. Provided that 1277 in the SP500 holds, there’s a heightening probability that the SP500 rallies to a lower-high at 1293 – and nothing “fundamental” from an intermediate-term perspective will have changed.
The masses shorted the lows, and now Squeezy is hungry.
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer