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For the 2nd week in a row, US weekly jobless claims came in better than I expected. On balance, this is bullish for the market’s immediate term “Trade”. Incorporating this morning’s selloff in my math, I think we are within 3% of another short term low in the SP500.

This week’s jobless # came in at 461,000. This was lower than last week’s print of 477,000. Remember, everything in our economic model that matters occurs on the margin. If next week’s jobless report comes in better yet again, I am bullish on the October employment report. Yes, bullish, as in it will be better than market expectations which are ostensibly deteriorating by the minute.

All the while, the intermediate “Trend” will remain bearish. See the chart below – what a difference a year makes.
KM